Leverage Plays: Late Pick 4 Analysis at Santa Anita Park on March 10th, 2018

Below is the late Pick 4 ticket at Santa Anita Park on ‘Big Cap’ Day, March 10th, 2018. As always the ticket is $20 or less.

Race 8

Lexington Grace (#8, 6-1) fell hopelessly out of it in her U.S. debut before closing nicely to be fourth against tougher. She adds blinkers, which should put her into the race early and picks up the services of Javier Castellano. This filly won three races in Europe while wearing shades.

Mraseel (#7, 30-1) is an interesting longshot while making her second start in America for Richard Baltas. She did not do much running in her U.S. debut, but she had tons on trouble and stretches out for the first time. It is encouraging to see Baltas bring her right back in a stakes off that effort. This dark horse is worth a shot at 30-1.

Finess Bere (#6, 6-1) was disappointing in the Sweet Life, but some horses do not take to the hill. She returns to her preferred distance in this spot. She won twice going one mile in France and was a good 4th at the same distance in the Blue Northern.

Californiagoldrush (#4, 7-2) takes a step up in class, but she may be up for the challenge. She was talented enough to win first-time-out for the patient Drysdale barn before coming right back to beat winners. The only drawback with this filly is a potentially short price in a wide-open race.

Ms Bad Behavior (#1, 4-1) has picked up her game since switching to turf, but will try routing for the first time in the China Doll. She is bred to handle the distance however; and should be right there on the wire.

Race 9

Liberty Jack (#12, 3-1) takes a huge drop in class and towers over this field on numbers. He will have to work out a trip from post 12, but is strictly the horse to beat while facing non-winners of two for the first time.

Rocky’s Show (#4, 8-1) was involved in a contentious speed duel with a 9/5 favorite last time out. He put that horse away before being collared late by Trapalanda, who came right back to win. He is drawn outside his only pace rival, Celebrate Life, today and Elliot jumps off of that horse to land here.

Race 10

Top of the Game (#1, 10-1) rattled off four impressive wins over the Santa Anita main track and his victory in the Comma to the Top Stakes would be good enough to make him favorite in here if he had not run since. He proceeded to have a nightmare trip at Del Mar over a surface he does not like before running poorly over the turf. He finally returned to his favorite main track last time, but was sent to the lead and tired. He is proven from off the pace and could be dangerous at a price with a change of tactics.

Giant Expectations (#4, 5-1) had no chance in the Pegasus World Cup from post 12, but actually hung in pretty well for awhile before tiring. His win in the San Antonio was impressive and he is a nice fit with these. He must prove he can go a mile and a quarter, but he could easily get brave on the lead and never look back.

Prime Attraction (#2, 8-1)  ran 78 feet further than Accelerate did in the San Pasqual, but it was Accelerate’s trouble that got all of the attention out of that race. This horse is arguably the most inconsistent runner in this field, but his best is absolutely good enough to contend. Unlike many runners in the field, he has proven that he can handle the 1 1/4 distance of the ‘Big Cap’.

Accelerate (#7, 5-2) is a deserving favorite following his win in the San Pasqual. He has improved since adding blinkers and has the versatility to go wire-to-wire or sit off the pace. Even after winning last time out, he is still only 1 for 9 at Santa Anita Park and is yet to win at a mile and a quarter. There are chinks in his armor, but he has enough positives to include.

Race 11

Hope Wins (#1, 4-1) makes her first start routing after two solid sprint tries. She should relish two turns and comes out of a very live race last time out. Classy Atlantic, who ran second, returned to win. Bunny Yogurt, who ran last, returned to win and Spend Spend Spend, who ran fourth, returned to run a strong second. Hope Wins was the only horse closing in a merry-go-round race and should get the pace she needs to close the ‘Big Cap’ card with a win.

$0.50 Pick 4 Ticket: 1,4,6,7,8 – 4,12 – 1,2,4,7 – 1  = $20

-Padraic Manocchio

@xbtvpadraic

Leverage Plays: Late Pick 4 Analysis at Santa Anita Park on March 10th, 2018

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