XBTV’s Leverage Plays: Late Pick 4 at Santa Anita Park on September 30th, 2017

Below is the late Pick 4 ticket for an great card at Santa Anita Park on September 30th, 2017. As always, the ticket is $20 or less.

Race 8: Front Runner Stakes

Bolt d’Oro (#4, 2-1) is a star in the making and his win in the Del Mar Futurity was even better than it looks on paper. Not many two-year-olds can break slow, race wide throughout and come from off the pace to win second-time out. He is bred to get even stronger with added distance and Mick Ruis admitted to only having him cranked at 90% when winning last time out. It all adds up to an easy single en route to a victory in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile for Bolt d’Oro.

 

Race 9: Rodeo Drive Stakes

Goodyearforroses (#10, 5-2) is the most logical contender in the Rodeo Drive. She was likely best when drawing post 13 and having to wait to make her run in the John C. Mabee last time out. This ultra consistent mare was only a length and a half behind Lady Eli, who would be 6-5 in this race, when they squared off in the Gamely.

Decked Out (#8, 5-1) had a perfect prep for this race in the John C. Mabee last time out. She never had clear sailing and finished under her own power to be fifth. She appears to prefer a soft turf course, but her run in last year’s Del Mar Oaks on a firm turf course puts her squarely in the mix.

Beau Recall (#7, 8-1) has been a bit snakebitten in recent starts, but she always brings a strong closing kick. With plenty of pace signed on in this mile and a quarter event, this filly will be flying late. She will have to take a step up while facing elders for the first time, but she figures to once again be right there when the dust settles.

Responsibleforlove (#3, 6-1) is an intriguing filly who showed a whole new dimension last time out. After running off early and trying to hang on late in her previous two starts, she settled in 7th early last time out before showing a powerful late kick to win. Talamo and Drysdale may have figured this filly out and she is a threat to show further improvement under her new style.

 

Race 10: Awesome Again Stakes

Cupid (#8, 2-1) does not always bring his ‘A’ game, but his best is likely good enough to win the Awesome Again Stakes. His win in the Gold Cup was fantastic, but his effort in the Brubaker left a lot to be desired. He still deserves credit for winning over a track that he may not have cared for and he now returns to Santa Anita Park, where he has enjoyed his most success.

Mubtaahij (#6, 4-1) is the ‘other Baffert’, but is no slouch in his own right. The world traveler has made over $4.3 million in his career and makes his first start in the Baffert barn. He figures to need a start and his recent form has not been his best, but he has worked lights out since arriving at Santa Anita Park and much be included as the wildcard of the race.

Breaking Lucky (#5, 5-1) has been losing ground in the stretch in recent starts, but in his defense, he has been facing Gun Runner. With no Gun Runner signed up in here, this horse showed sit a nice trip just behind the speed and will look to pounce in his first start in California. He may prove to be more of a bridesmaid, but he is the most likely winner if Cupid and Mubtaahij fail to fire.

Donworth (#7, 6-1) is worthy of inclusion simply because he is adding blinkers in a race full of question marks. He has disappointed after being purchased privately for a hefty sum, but he showed ability earlier in his career and his workouts with blinkers have been very impressive. If the blinkers wake him up in the afternoon, watch out.

 

 Race 11: Unzip Me Stakes

Tapped  (#4, 10-1) has run in all kinds of spots, but sprinting on the turf is what she truly wants to do. Her two dirt sprints resulted in wins and her lone turf sprint was her best effort yet. She was blocked for every step of the race except the last few yards and still managed to show a strong kick to only lose by a length. The hillside turf course should hit this filly right between the eyes and she adds blinkers for her first start in the Richard Baltas barn. Baltas hits at 24% with horses making their first start in his barn and this filly is ultra live at 10-1.

Miss Southern Miss (#11, 5-1) showed an explosive turf of foot in her only turf start, which is not surprising considering she is bred to love the surface. She is also proven sprinting fresh, as she won her debut in impressive fashion. With great upside, this filly appears to be biggest threat to Tapped in the Unzip Me Stakes.

 

$0.50 Pick 4 Ticket: 4 – 3,7,8,10 – 5,6,7,8 – 4, 11  = $16

-Padraic Manocchio

@xbtvpadraic

XBTV’s Leverage Plays: Late Pick 4 at Santa Anita Park on September 30th, 2017

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