The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players. The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play. Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.
The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Top selection indicated in bold-face.
A=Highest degree of confidence.
C=Least preferred, or pass.
X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.
Friday, June 9, 2017
RACE 1: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B
Use: 1-Exotic Ghost; 5-Mr. Hinx
Mr. Hinx didn’t run badly up north in a listed stakes over a distance of ground and should regain his best form while returning to the allowance ranks, shortening back to a sprint, and switching to the Hillside Course over which he broke his maiden in sharp fashion earlier this year. The son of Ministers Wildcat gets a break in the weights by picking up hot bug boy Evin Roman and should settle into an ideal striking position, ready to pounce when ready. We’ll also toss in Exotic Ghost, a state-bred winner over this course and distance last month with a figure that makes him a contender despite the raise into open company.
RACE 2: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Norwegian Spy; 4-Secret Shopper
The second race is a maiden $50,000 abbreviated sprint. Secret Shopper flashed good zip before fading badly vs. straight maiden foes a couple of weeks ago; against this much softer group the daughter of Shackleford should stick much better. A repeat of her debut effort two runs back makes her the one to beat. Norwegian Spy, away since December and showing up in a claimer for the first time, displayed some early speed when last seen and could be a better type this time around.
RACE 3: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: B
Use: 5-Surrender Now; 6-Tyfosha; 7-Mondaymorningblues
A fairly strong group of major juvenile fillies occupies the third race, a five furlong sprint that requires a spread in rolling exotic play. Mondaymorningblues, one of two Peter Miller trainees in the lineup, had a brutal trip when extremely well-meant in her debut, racing in traffic along the rail much of the way before winding up fourth as the 6/5 favorite (see Black Book). She’s drawn outside today, so we’ll give her a chance to do it right this time with the switch to Tyler Baze. Miller’s other entrant is the fast-working first-time starter Surrender Now, which brought $230,000 at the Barretts March Sale. The daughter of Morning Line looked sharp breezing a furlong in 10 seconds flat at the preview session and has continued to impress in a.m. drills at San Luis Rey Downs. Tyfosha is another highly-regarded debut runner; the daughter of Flatter cost $410,000 at the OBS March Sale, where she worked the fastest furlong (9 4/5 seconds) during the preview. She’s continued to catch the eye in the a.m. since joining Doug O’Neill’s barn at Santa Anita (see workout) and appears cranked up for a major effort first crack out of the box. We’ll go with the experienced Mondaymorningblues slightly on top but include all three in our rolling exotics.
RACE 4: Post: 2:30 PT. Grade: B
Use: 2-Captain Call; 4-Burnie’s On Board; 6-Hi Heat Boy
The fourth race is a California-bred maiden claiming turf miler. Captain Call showed some ability in his only start at Los Alamitos last December when he finished willingly to be second after a slow start and a wide trip. That effort came against maiden $20,000 company; today he returns for maiden $50,000 in a sign of confidence by trainer Sean McCarthy. He’s bred to love turf on both sides of his pedigree and sports a bullet six furlong workout just a week ago. Burnie’s On Board and Hi Heat Boy both have the straight maiden to maiden claiming angle working for them and we expect both to improve considerably at this level of competition. The former removes blinkers, another angle we like, while the latter gets a break in the weights with the switch to bug boy Solis. We’ll use all three in rolling exotic play and then have extra tickets keying Captain Call.
RACE 5: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: B
Use: 2-Tribal Jewel; 5-Prime Issue
Prime Issue seems well-spotted in the fifth race, a main track miler for $50,000 claimers. The Miller-trained gelding finished a strong second last month in his first outing since last August in a highly-rated sprint and today stretches out to a distance he certainly can handle. Rafael Bejarano stays aboard and should have this veteran son of Tannersmyman in a comfortable pace-stalking position. Tribal Jewel seems like the logical pace-setter and should take them a long way, though in recent races he’s been weakening under pressure in the final furlong. Freshened since the third week of April, the Bill Spawr-trained son of Tribal Rule has finished in the frame in 32 of 47 career starts and will be dangerous with anything close to his best effort. We’ll put Prime Issue on top but use both in rolling exotic play.
RACE 6: Post 3:30 PT. Grade: B
Juansagain seems the logical choice in the sixth race, a $12,500 sprint that doesn’t look particularly strong on paper. He’s a first-off-the-claim for Miller (32% with a strong ROI) and should produce a significant forward move, but really won’t have to improve much after outrunning a $10,000 field last month. The First Samurai gelding clearly has problems (he’s only raced 12 times midway through his 6-year-old season) and by raising him just one level the barn clearly isn’t protecting him. However, if he has at least one good one left he’ll score again. Let’s make him a straight play and rolling exotic single.
RACE 7: Post 4:00 PT. Grade: B+
Single: 5-Doc Curlin
Doc Curlin makes his first start since being transferred to the highly-productive Richard Baltas barn (from Kristin Mulhall) and a recent sharp a.m. drill (see workout) indicates he’s ready to resume his winning ways after finishing a strong third in a troubled trip behind razor sharp Roy H. Successful over this course and distance in a visually pleasing performance two runs back, the gelding needs only to repeat either one of his last two starts to handle this affair. We’ll make him a strong straight play and rolling exotic single.
RACE 8: Post 4:30 PT. Grade: B
Use: 4-I’ll Wrap It Up; 5-City Steel
I’ll Wrap It Up once had a well-deserved reputation as gelding without a winning punch but the son of Tapit now has captured two of his last five starts (to go along with two seconds and a third) and suddenly has become one to be relied on. Protected today in a starter’s $10,000 handicap, the Steve Miyadi-trained veteran seems primed for another major effort and should be on or near the lead throughout under 128 lbs. High weight honors go to City Steel (he’ll carry 129 lbs.), a strong runner-up in a tougher starter $16,000 affair last month over this track and distance and an 11-time winner over his 38-race career. The Rafael Becerra-trained gelding always lays his body down and is strictly the one to beat. Both should be included in rolling exotic play with I’ll Wrap It Up slightly preferred on top due to strong recent speed figures.
RACE 9: Post 5:00 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 3-Insubordination; 6-Mor Candy
The finale is a maiden special weight downhill turf sprint for state-bred runners. Insubordination and Mor Candy just finished two-three in a similar affair over this course and distance and we’ll be surprised if this affair doesn’t boil down to these two. The former retains Stewart Elliott and should be doing his best work from off the pace, while the latter, with just two lifetime starts and a bit more early zip, would seem to have more upside. The first timers don’t really inspire so let’s try to get by using just these two with Mor Candy getting the edge on top.
Friday, June 9, 2017
RACE 1: Post 12:50 ET. Grade: B+
Single: 8-Bobby On Fleek
RACE 2: Post 1:20 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 7-Spring Folly; 10-Sand City
RACE 3: Post 1:52 ET. Grade: B
Use: 2-Zennor; 4-Fox Rules
RACE 4: Post: 2:24 ET. Grade: B+
Use: 2-Mr Classical; 5-Marshall Plan
RACE 5: Post 2:56 ET. Grade: B
Use: 5-Direct Dial; 7-Salmanazar; 8-Analyze the Odds
RACE 6: Post 3:36 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Rocketry; 6-Im the Captain Now; 11-Eradicator
RACE 7: Post 4:08 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 3-Bricks and Mortar; 8-Snap Decision; 12-J. S. Choice
RACE 8: Post 4:42 ET. Grade: B
Use: 4-Stallwalkin’ Dude; 7-Roy H; 8-Whitmore
RACE 9: Post 5:14 ET. Grade: B+
Use: 2-Suffused; 6-Sea Calisi
RACE 10: Post 5:46 ET. Grade: B+
Use: 4-Wall of Fire; 10-Red Cardinal; 12-Wicklow Brave
RACE 11: Post 6:18 ET. Grade: B
Use: 3-Indulgent; 4-Quezon; 9-By the Moon