The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players. The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play. Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.
The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Top selection indicated in bold-face.
A=Highest degree of confidence.
C=Least preferred, or pass.
X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.
Thursday, February 9, 2017
RACE 1: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: C
Use: 1-Informant; 3-Rcatcanscat; 6-Very Hot
Six modest claiming sophomore fillies meet over a mile in the Thursday opener. Informant seems fairly attractive at 8-1 on the morning line; the Eddie Truman-trained daughter of Informed stretches out again and her best prior speed figure came around two turns when a distant third vs. tougher at Del Mar. A healthy recent work pattern should have her on edge for a forward move, so we’ll put her on top. Rcatcanscat drops to her lowest level ever, has figures that fit and is the likely choice and one to beat. Very Hot graduated gamely vs. a soft maiden claiming group a couple of weeks ago and can be competitive on the raise with only slight improvement. These are the three we’ll be using in our rolling exotics.
RACE 2: Post 1:29 PT. Grade: B+
Single: 2-Ceeme Run Wild
Ceeme Run Wild returned off a long layoff and score handsomely over this course and distance vs. maidens last month and did so with a number that makes her dangerous right back vs. non-winners of two. The Jerry Hollendorfer-trained filly catches a very comfortable pace scenario and should be on or near the lead throughout. There’s plenty of value to be found at or near her morning line of 9/2, so let’s make her a straight play and rolling exotic single.
RACE 3: Post 1:59 PT. Grade: C
Use: 2-Mimis Big Boy; 4-Unbridled Rocket
The third race kicks off the pick-6; it’s a weak affair for restricted (nw-2) $12,500 older claiming milers and probably should be dealt with carefully. Unbridled Rocket has hit the board in his last three starts so at least he’s in form. The Jack Carava-trained gelding certainly isn’t one to trust – he’s 1-for-18 – but he could get brave against this group. Mimis Big Boy, a somewhat troubled fourth in the same race Unbridled Rocket exits, has a few prior races that make him dangerous so we’ll toss him in as well. These are the two we’ll be using in our rolling exotics but with a low degree of confidence.
RACE 4: Post: 2:29 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 3-Nuke Laloosh; 5-Sleepwalker; 6-Bolitar
The fourth race is another restricted claimer, this one at five and one-half furlongs for non-winners of three $16,000 sprinters. Nuke Laloosh won in late November in fairly clever fashion at Del Mar but was a voided claim and returned to the Peter Miller barn. He makes his first start since, shows an uneven series of workouts at San Luis Rey Downs and must have more than his share of problems, but anything close to him best race makes him a major contender, especially from this red hot barn. Bolitar, first off the claim for Steve Knapp, has been chasing some sharp company lately and seems likely to improve against this modest group. The son of Harlan’s Holiday does him best running with held up early. Sleepwalker has a race two back at Los Alamitos that charts well with these, but that zero-for-seven lifetime record over the Santa Anita main track is hard to ignore. However, at 6-1 on the morning line he’s probably worth including somewhere.
RACE 5: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Salsita; 3-Molly’s Honour; 4-Mangita
The fifth race drew a fairly competitive group of $40,000 claiming fillies and mares over a mile on turf and requires a spread in rolling exotic play. Mangita may be as good as any; the veteran mare returns after a more than three month vacation while making her first start for the Phil D’Amato stable and has every right to produce a significant forward move. First or second in seven of 11 career starts over the local lawn, the daughter of Cyclotron should draft into an ideal pace-stalking positon and have every chance. Her 4-1 morning line seems like a square price. Salsita, like Mangita away since October, returns for Richard Baltas (good stats with layoff horses) and should enjoy a cozy ground-saving trip from her rail post. She won cleverly the last time she appeared at this level (last summer at Del Mar) and has shown the ability in the past to fire fresh. Molly’s Honour, first off the claim for Keith Desormeaux, stretches out and returns to grass today and might wind up being the controlling speed. She’s a “must use” in rolling exotic play.
RACE 6: Post 3:30 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Cupid’s Beau; 6-Edwards Going Left; 7-Will Tell
The sixth race is a maiden $50,000 claiming sprint for sophomores featuring an intriguing comebacker, Will Tell. Away since last June and now in the Vladimir Cerin barn, the Creative Cause gelding returns as a first-time gelding and has worked like a much better type this time around. He has the first-time-in-a-claimer angle we like as well, so at 6-1 on the morning line he rates top billing. Cupid’s Beau was second, beaten a head, in his only prior start at this level and the route-to-sprint angle is another that we often gravitate to. The Steve Miyadi-trained gelding continues to work well, so if he can avoid trouble from the rail he should be a major player. Edwards Going Left is a first-timer by Midnight Lute with a fairly decent series of workouts at San Luis Rey Downs. He represents stranger danger, so we’ll include him as well.
RACE 7: Post 4:00 PT. Grade: B+
Single: 10-Liam the Charmer
Liam the Charmer ran extremely well in three starts over this turf course last year and has the late closing style that should be very effective at this 10-furlong distance. The son of Smart Strike exits a powerful race, has looked very sharp in the morning of late for trainer Mike McCarthy, and should be along in time despite his disadvantageous outside draw. At 4-1 on the morning line he’s a strong straight play and rolling exotic single.
RACE 8: Post 4:00 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 2-Hot Paris Night; 8-Johann’s Command
The finale is a bottom-rung claiming miler for older horses and doesn’t have much in it. We’ll try to get by using just two, but if you find the need to go deeper, go right ahead. Hot Paris Night is a Bay Area invader with decent recent form for Hollendorfer and has numbers that are good enough to win, assuming he’s just as effective on dirt as he is on turf and synthetic. He’s drawn nicely inside and should be prominent throughout. Johann’s Command is a 12-race maiden but has landed in the frame in four of his last five starts and for his low profile connections. If he can shake loose early, he might get brave.
Thursday, February 9, 2017
RACE 1: Post 12:35 ET. Grade: X
Single: 6-Into the Future
RACE 2: Post 1:04 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 3-E Z’s Mistress; 4-Working Carol K; 5-Truge
RACE 3: Post 1:33 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 5-Budding; 6-Indy Forest
RACE 4: Post: 2:02 ET. Grade: X
Single: 4-Bow Town Cat
RACE 5: Post 2:32 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 1-She Read My Texts; 7-Bianco Dinero; 8-Colormepegasus
RACE 6: Post 3:02 ET. Grade: B
Use: 1-Façade; 8-Barry’s Swing
RACE 7: Post 3:32 ET. Grade: B
Use: 2-Flying Queen; 4-Two Step Blues
RACE 8: Post 4:02 ET. Grade: C
Use: 3-Remarkable Tale; 7-Jack West; 8-Joey Six Pack
RACE 9: Post 4:33 ET. Grade: B
RACE 10: Post: 5:04 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 7-Shoo Fly; 9-Deneb; 12-Diddley