The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players. The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play. Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.
The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Top selection indicated in bold-face.
A=Highest degree of confidence.
C=Least preferred, or pass.
X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.
Sunday, March 26, 2017
RACE 1: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Spanish Eyes; 5-Mt. Leinster
The Sunday opener drew just five runners for a 3-year-olds only $16,000 claiming miler. Spanish Eyes is a sharp Bay Area invader fresh from a pair of wins (though he was disqualified in the race two back) and with speed figures that fit. The son of Eskendreya should draft into an ideal pace-stalking position and then go on with it. Mt. Leinster earned a career top number when second in a slightly tougher spot earlier this month and is strictly the one to beat. Both should be included in rolling exotic play with preference on top to Spanish Eyes.
RACE 2: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: X
Single: 1-Princess Kendra
Princess Kendra has three wins in 21 career starts and all of her victories have come over the Santa Anita main track. In today’s second race the Bill Spawr-trained daughter of Benchmark has little to beat and despite having to leave form the rail and with a late-running style that could cause traffic issues she should be able to produce the last run. At 9/5 on the morning line and likely to go lower, she doesn’t offer much in the way of wagering value but we can use her as a rolling exotic single.
RACE 3: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: X
Single: 4-Ain’t Misbehavin
Ain’t Misbehavin must pack 128 lbs. in this starter’s handicap for $10,000 claimers, but if he can handle the load – and against this group we suspect he can – the Vladimir Cerin-trained gelding should simply out-class this field. In good form with sharp recent speed figures and six career wins over the Santa Anita main track, the son of Elusive Warning should be a short price, weight and all. Let’s make him a no-value rolling exotic single but otherwise pass the race.
RACE 4: Post: 2:00 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Nine Point Nine; 4-Enduring Erin
Nine Point Nine projects to be the controlling speed in this nine furlong starter handicap for $25,000 claiming fillies and mares and is in good form, having just earned a career top number when second in a strong second level allowance race over this course and distance. Not much more will be needed to beat this field. Enduring Erin might be more effective on dirt, but this drop from graded stakes company to starter’s handicap makes her clearly the one to beat, as evidenced by her 4/5 morning line. We’ll use both in our rolling exotics and then press a bit with Nine Point Nine on top.
RACE 5: Post 2:30 PT. Grade: B
Use: 1-Seau; 5-Adorned
Adorned missed by a head in his debut last November and then was stopped on; the Eddie Truman-trained sophomore returns in winnable spot following a series of solid recent workouts. The son of Uncle Mo retains Tyler Baze and should be on or near the lead throughout. Seau has the blinkers off angle we like so much and switches to Kent Desormeaux. He wants to be held up and allowed to run late and should get that type of ride today. Since Adorned has upside that most of the others don’t, we’ll put him on top while using both in the rolling exotics.
RACE 6: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: B
Use: 5-Settle Down Eileen; 7-Fabulous Lady
Settle Down Eileen has little to beat in this high priced maiden claiming turf sprint for fillies and mares, and in her first start since October and her first for Spawr, she could easily be a much better type this time around. Recent workouts have been good and the stable go-to rider Martin Pedroza takes the call. Fabulous Lady shows up in a claimer for the first time and should greatly appreciate the class relief. She ran well over this course and distance as a two-year-old and has back numbers that are good enough to win. Both should be included in your rolling exotics; we’ll have an extra ticket or two keying Settle Down Eileen on top.
RACE 7: Post 3:30 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Skye Diamonds; 6-Roo’s Valentine; 9-Dressed to a T
Skye Diamonds has won four of her last five starts but she’s unproven routing and today we’ll find out if middle distance is within her range. If she routes as well as she sprints she’ll win again. If not, both Roo’s Valentine and Dressed to a T have credentials to beat her. The former earned a career top speed figure when winning a softer allowance event down the Hillside course recently but can handle dirt equally as well, while the latter will be making her first start on the main track but has a pedigree that suggests the surface switch shouldn’t be an issue.
RACE 8: Post 4:00 PT. Grade: B
Use: 2-Barleysugar; 6-Place des Vosges
Barleysugar exits a series of graded stakes races and should enjoy this much softer assignment. The Irish-bred filly is overdue for another win and at this level should be able to produce a winning late kick. Place des Vosges won an entry-level allowance race over this course last month and has held her edge in the morning in the interim. The Richard Baltas-trained mare likes to lag and cut loose late and jockey Corey Nakatani fits her well. We’ll try to get by using just these two with preference on top to Barleysugar.
RACE 9: Post 4:30 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Passed by Paul; 2-Mind Reader; 7-Edwards Going Left
The finale is a maiden claiming extended sprint for 3-year-olds. Edwards Going Left is a second time starter that likely is much better than his debut showed. The son of Midnight Lute broke slowly, raced greenly and wound up far back, but he’s trained better since, removes blinkers, switches to Baze, and is dropping for maiden $50,000 to $30,000 off the claim for John Sadler. Today we’ll find out if he can run and we suspect he can. Mind Reader plummets from straight maiden company and may be better than his 10-1 morning line indicates. The Ben Cecil-trained gelding has some speed and will be making his first start since being gelded, so improvement is likely. Passed by Paul has hit the board in two of his last three, has numbers that fit, and should at least land in the frame once again.
Sunday, March 26, 2017
RACE 1: Post 12:35 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Cunaviche; 5-Je Ne Sais Pas
RACE 2: Post 1:05 ET. Grade: B
Use: 3-Publicist; 6-Ortiga
RACE 3: Post 1:35 ET. Grade: X
Single: 4-Jaiden’s Best
RACE 4: Post: 2:05 ET. Grade: B
Use: 3-Valdocco; 6-Peace Speaker
RACE 5: Post 2:35 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 2-Swapi; 5-R Lucky Charm; 6-Pira
RACE 6: Post 3:05 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Creative Talent; 6-Tonina; 7-Ok Kandrita
RACE 7: Post 3:35 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 2-Hollywood Tomcat; 4-My Celeste; 8-Cali Cat
RACE 8: Post 4:06 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 6-Summation Time; 8-Brandy’s Girl; 9-Big Rock
RACE 9: Post 4:37 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Campagno; 3-Harlan’s Quest; 7-So Long Chuck
RACE 10: Post: 5:08 ET. Grade: B
Use: 1-Metaphorically; 7-Starship Wildcat
RACE 11: Post: 5:39 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 4-Budding; 6-Stone Heart; 8-Olimpico