Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis April 1, 2016

FIRST RACE (1:00 PT) – GRADE: B-

 Use: 1-Miss Bliss; 6-Moonie

#1 Miss Bliss earned a speed figure two races back when breaking her maiden that would be good enough to beat this field, and she was simply was overmatched in her most recent start, so at this level the daughter of Northern Afleet should bounce back with a big effort, rail and all. She’s proven over this track and Quinonez knows her well. #6 Moonie is strictly the one to beat. Drawn comfortably outside, the daughter of Square Eddie shows up in a claimer for the first time and the drop in class should make a world of difference. She’s back on the main track and makes a positive switch to Prat, so all things considered she’s the logical favorite and deserves top billing. Both should be included in rolling exotic play.

 

SECOND RACE (1:30 PT) – GRADE: none

 Use: Pass/No Play

This may be a good race to pass; it’s a downhill turf sprint for high-priced claiming sophomore fillies, most of whom are unproven over this course and distance. #1 Compel shows up for a tag for the first time and should improve, especially with the switch to Bejarano. However, the post is no help and she’s still trying to find her proper level after being imported from England. #3 Amber Louise just broke her maiden under these conditions and is solid in the speed figure department but the easy splits that she got away with in her victory might have flattered her performance.   #4 Miss Big Stuff, away since November, can fire fresh and may be the quickest in the field. She’s not really bred to improve on turf, but who knows? Anything goes in this race.

 

THIRD RACE (2:03 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 2-Miz Graycee; 5-Odisseia

The Pick-6 begins in the third race. #2 Miz Graycee moves up a notch for new trainer Bob Hess, Jr. following a win vs. non-winners of two $12,500 foes while earning a speed figure that should make her competitive against this stronger group. She has good tactical speed, is drawn nicely inside, and seems likely to draft into a comfortable pace-stalking spot. #5 Odisseia makes a significant class drop from open $25,000 to restricted (nw-3) $16,000 and seems likely to improve in this league, though she’s only one-for-20 lifetime and is unproven on dirt. This is another race that might be best left alone, though if you are playing any rolling exotics we’d include these two plus anybody else that might catch your eye.

 

FOURTH RACE (2:33 PT) – GRADE: C+

Use: 1-Hail Mary Play; 3-Tinderette; 4-Sooner Time

#1 Hail Mary Play crushed $16,000 claimers last month with a career top speed figure and was claimed by Machowsky, who protects today in starter’s allowance company. She’s lightly-raced with further improvement in her, and if she can negotiate a good trip from the rail the daughter of Haynesfield could score right back. #3 Tinderette broke her maiden recently in clever fashion while carrying a $30,000 tag and like Hail Mary Play appears headed in the right direction. On pure numbers she’s right there with these. #4 Sooner Time, first off the claim for Cerin, has been freshened since mid-February and returns protected in a sign of confidence. She should be doing her best work from mid-pack. In a tough event, let’s try to get by using just these three with slight preference on top to Hail Mary Play.

 

FIFTH RACE (3:05 PT) – GRADE: C+

Use: 1-Infinite Magic; 5-Fly Lexis Fly; 6-Atta Boy Pete

This downhill turf scramble requires a spread in rolling exotic play; we suggest you use as many as you can afford to. #6 Atta Boy Pete has good form over this course and a repeat of his race before last – a sharp win under these conditions at this level – probably would be good enough to beat this field. #5 Fly Lexis Fly has the dangerous route-to-sprint angle and is a fit at this level; however, he’s totally unproven on grass. But with the switch to Bejarano he’s worth including. #1 Infinite Magic hasn’t won in a long time but is always a late threat, and if he gets some help up front he could prove troublesome in the final furlong. His race two back – a runner-up effort behind Mr. Sexy – charts well with these.

 

SIXTH RACE (3:35 PT) – GRADE: B-

 Use: 1-Gutsy Ruler; 2-Prime Issue

The main contention is this state-bred first level allowance sprint is drawn inside. #1 Gutsy Ruler has been making a living on minor awards – he’s hit the board in his last six starts – and is overdue for a win. The Javier Sierra-trained gelding makes a monumental jockey switch to Bejarano and all three of his career victories have come over this main track. #2 Prime Issue earned a huge number when nosed out in a two-turn race at this level in late February; he’s turning back to a sprint and dropping below his claim level so there are mixed signals as to his suitability in this particular spot. We’ll toss him – he’s been first or second in five of 10 career starts on this main track – but prefer Gutsy Ruler on top.

 

SEVENTH RACE (4:05 PT) – GRADE: B+

Single: 5-Roy H

#5 Roy H looks very much like the controlling speed and if he can shake loose early without pressure he can take this field a long way. The blinkers come off, the work tab looks healthy, he makes a positive switch to Prat, and the Peter Miller-trained colt should fire a big shot in his first start since December. Let’s make him a straight play and rolling exotic single.

 

EIGHTH RACE (4:05 PT) – GRADE: B+

Single: 9-Be Mine

The finale is a starter’s allowance turf miler for older fillies and mares. #9 Be Mine is an interesting shipper from Florida; the daughter of Twirling Candy won her debut in good style at Tampa Bay Downs vs. maiden claiming company and today makes her local bow after being privately purchased by clients of Phil D’Amato. The post does her no favors and she’s light in the speed figure department but she lands Prat and may have upside that most of the others don’t. Let’s make her a straight play and rolling exotic single.

 

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis April 1, 2016

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