Jeff Siegel’s 2021 Triple Crown Tracker Power Rankings
(Updated March 9, 2021)
Updated regularly, these rankings identify the best 3-year-olds of 2021 in order of preference, with each horse given a theoretical weight assignment starting at 126 lbs. based on past performance and projected development. The horses listed are assumed to be candidates for at least one of the Triple Crown races.
1 – LIFE IS GOOD (B. Baffert) – 126 lbs.
Pedigree: Into Mischief – Beach Walk, by Distorted Humor
Lifetime record: 3-3-0-0 ($274,200). Derby Points: 60
Last start: March 6, 2021, Santa Anita, 8.5F San Felipe S.-G2, finished first
Next start: April 3, 2021, Santa Anita, 9F Santa Anita Derby-G1
Latest workout: None since raced
The skinny: $525,000Y; second foal of placed dam; second, third, and fourth dams were listed stakes winners; unbeaten in three gate-to-wire starts, a 6.5F maiden at Del Mar in November (by 9 ½ lengths), a three-quarter length victory in the 8F Sham S.-G in early January, and then most recently the 8.5F San Felipe S.-G2 (by eight widening lengths from stable mate Medina Spirit) despite drifting outing towards the middle of the track in the final furlong while earning a career top 107 Beyer speed figure and looking every bit the most naturally gifted runner in his class; likely to have his final Kentucky Derby-G1 prep in the 9F Santa Anita Derby Apr 3; still somewhat green and a bit unpredictable and tends to want to pull early though at this stage of his young career certainly seems to be a dyed-in-the-wool front-runner; has the ability to switch off on the lead and then re-break but there must be some concern with regards to his antics in his most recent start; as a son of North America’s premier stallion Into Mischief has the makings of a brilliant sprinter/middle distance performer but there will always be some doubt to his ability to successfully handle a classic distance until he actually he actually does so.
*
2 – ESSENTIAL QUALITY (B. Cox) – 125 lbs.
Pedigree: Tapit – Delightful Quality, by Elusive Quality
Lifetime record: 4-4-0-0 ($1,335,144). Derby points: 40
Last start: Feb. 27, 2021, Oaklawn Park, 8.5F Southwest S.-G3, finished first.
Next start: April 3, 2021, Keeneland, 9F Blue Grass S.-G2 or April 10, 2021, Oaklawn Park, 9F Arkansas Derby-G1
Latest workout: None since raced
The skinny: Godolphin homebred; dam graded stakes-placed sprinting half-sister to champion 2yo filly Folklore; reappeared in top form in late February with an authoritative victory over sloppy going in the 8F Southwest S.-G3 (by 4 ¼ lengths from Spielberg and Jackie’s Warrior), racing wide throughout but accelerating impressively in the final furlong; had secured a 2020 Eclipse Award in the 2-year-old colt division to complete an unbeaten juvenile campaign in the 8.5F BC Juvenile-G1 at Keeneland in November when rallying from nine lengths back with the help of the fast-early race-flow to win by ¾ length from 90-1 Hot Rod Charlie; previously won his 6F debut at Churchill Downs by four lengths in September (rallying from 7 ½ lengths back) and then registering a 3 ¼ length score in the 8.5F Breeders’ Futurity-G1 at Keeneland after pressing slow fractions; speed figures are strong and have risen with each of his four career victories; proven so far to be genuine and versatile while giving indication that the Derby’s 10F trip will easily be within his range; in top hands with every expectation that he’ll continue to develop during the spring of his 3-year-old season.
*
3 – GREATEST HONOUR (C. McGaughey III) – 124 lbs.
Pedigree: Tapit – Tiffany’s Honour, by Street Cry
Lifetime record: 6-3-1-2 ($351,940). Derby Points: 60
Last start: Feb. 27, 2021, Gulfstream Park, 8.5F Fountain of Youth S.-G2, finished first.
Next start: March 26, 2021, Gulfstream Park, 9F Florida Derby S.-G1S
Latest workout: None since raced
The skinny: Was entered but withdrawn from 2019 Keeneland fall sale), second foal, dam unplaced half-sister to four SW’s including Rags to Riches and Jazil (both winners of Belmont S.-G1) and to BC Marathon S.-G1 Man of Iron; second dam Broodmare of the Year Better than Honour; took four races to break his maiden but has been unbeaten in his last three starts (all at Gulfstream Park) including the 8.5F Holy Bull S.-G3 (by 5 ¾ lengths from Tarantino) in January and then the Fountain of Youth S.-G2 (by 1 ½ lengths from Drain the Clock) the following month); not particular fast on speed figures though he’s never taken a backward move through six career starts; has been visually quite impressive rallying wide over a main track that traditionally plays against that style; pedigree suggests he’ll continue to improve as the distances increase; likely to have his final Triple Crown prep race in the Florida Derby-G1 in late March; campaign is reminiscent of Orb, who took the same path when winning the 2013 Kentucky Derby-G1 for this trainer.
*
4 – CONCERT TOUR (B. Baffert) – 123 lbs.
Pedigree: Street Sense – Purse Strings, by Tapit
Lifetime record: 2-2-0-0 ($36,600). Derby points: 0
Last start: Feb. 6, 2021, Santa Anita, 7F San Vicente S.-G2, finished first
Next start: March 13, 2021, Oaklawn Park, 8.5F Rebel S.-G3
Latest workout: March 6, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:11.2h
The skinny: Gary and Mary West Stables homebred; second foal; dam 6F maiden special weight winner at Churchill Downs in 12th (and final) career start; no black type in first two generations; third dam is the granddam of Stardom Bound (champion, BC Juvenile Fillies-G1); unbeaten in two career starts, most recently all out with a pace-pressing trip as the 2/5 favorite in five-runner 7F San Vicente S.-G2 by ½ length from B. Baffert-trained stable mate Freedom Fighter; strong speed figure in victory after returning in just three weeks from 6F debut maiden score in a highly impressive performance at Santa Anita in mid-January (forced pace, then kicked clear with power and with plenty left); pedigree suggests he’ll handle at least a middle distance and will try two-turns for the first time at Oaklawn Park in 8.5F Rebel S.-G2 in mid-March; is following the identical pattern/schedule as Baffert’s top class colt from last year, Nadal; intriguing prospect with loads of upside.
*
5 – MANDALOUN (B. Cox) – 123 lbs.
Pedigree: Into Mischief – Brooch, by Empire Maker
Lifetime record: 4-3-10-1 ($351,252). Derby Points: 52
Last start: Feb. 13, 2021, Fair Grounds, 8.5F Risen Star S.-G2, finished first.
Next start: March 30, 2021, Fair Grounds, 9.5F Louisiana Derby S.-G2
Latest workout: March 6, Fair Grounds, 5f, :59.1b
The skinny: Juddmonte Farm homebred, dam multiple graded stakes winner in Ireland; victorious in three of four career starts, including the 9F Risen Star S.-G2 in mid-February (by 1 ¼ lengths from Proxy); previously suffered only career defeat in 8.5F Lecomte S.-G3 (by 1 length when third to Midnight Bourbon and Proxy) after being wide throughout; speed figures have risen significantly with each outing; employs an ideal pace-stalking style; should be able to handle the Derby’s 10F classic distance; scheduled to have final Triple Crown prep in 9.5F Louisiana Derby in late March; progressing smoothly for Eclipse Award winning trainer though the level of competition he’s faced so far may be a tad suspect.
*
6 – CADDO RIVER (B. Cox) – 122 lbs.
Pedigree: Hard Spun – Pangburn, by Congrats
Lifetime record: 4-2-2-0 ($166,092). Derby points: 10
Last start: Jan. 22, 2021, Oaklawn Park, 8F Smarty Jones S., finished first
Next start: March 13, 2021, Oaklawn Park, 8.5F Rebel S.-G3
Latest workout: March 6, Fair Grounds, 5f, 100.1b
The skinny: Shortleaf Stable homebred; dam listed stakes winner and multiple graded stakes placed over middle distances; from the family of Preakness S.-G1 winner Tank’s Prospect; runner-up in his first two starts in New York (both 7F) before graduating by 9 ½ lengths in one-turn 8F maiden special weight at Churchill Downs in November; was ultra-impressive upon his reappearance in the listed 8F Smarty Jones S. at Oaklawn Park in January, establishing the lead easily and then drawing away at will while under cruise control; speed figures are strong and have risen with each outing; both wins were accomplished gate-to-wire but he gives the impression he’s not necessarily a need-the-lead type; pedigree suggests classic distance may be within his range; Arkansas-based and is slated to make his next start in mid-March in the 8.5F Rebel S.-G2
*
7 – MEDINA SPIRIT (B. Baffert) – 121 lbs.
Pedigree: Protonico – Mongolian Change, by Brilliant Speed
Lifetime record: 4-2-2-0 ($165,200). Derby points: 48
Last start: March 6, 2021, Santa Anita, San Felipe S.-G3, finished second
Next start: TBD
Latest workout: None
The skinny: $35,000 OBS 2yo; from first crop of multiple graded SW son of Giant’s Causeway, dam a synthetic maiden special weight winner at Presque Isle Downs; light female family (no SW’s in first three generations); genuine and consistent though no match for stable mate (and top-ranked) Life Is Good in the 8.5F San Felipe S.-G2 in late March, going down by eight lengths though gamely saving second money after stalking the winner throughout; previously had displayed extreme courage when winning 8.5F Robert B. Lewis S.-G3 in late January (by a neck from Roman Centurian and Hot Rod Charlie) despite being under heavy pressure from the far turn to the wire; before that finished second (beaten ¾ length while 13 clear of the rest) to Life Is Good in 8F Sham S.-G3 in January; speed figures are legitimate; pedigree suggests he’ll do better as the distances increase; clearly a much better prospect that originally judged and could easily return to winning form in his final Kentucky Derby prep next month if he can be allowed to get out from under his superior stable mate’s vast shadow.
*
8 – RISK TAKING (C. Brown) – 121 Lbs.
Pedigree: Medaglia d’Oro – Run a Risk, by Distorted Humor
Lifetime record: 4-2-0-0 ($182,530). Derby points: 10
Last start: Feb. 6, 2021, Aqueduct, Withers S.-G3, finished first
Next start: April 3, 2021, Aqueduct, 9F Wood Memorial-G2
Latest workout: March 6, Belmont Park, 4f, :49b TT
The skinny: $240,000Y, dam multiple stakes placed on grass; best runners from his female family also preferred turf; unplaced in first two career starts during the fall of his juvenile campaign but has vastly improved since, breaking his maiden over 9F at Aqueduct on dirt in December and then stepping forward again over that same track and distance when winning the Withers S.-G3 in early February (by 3 ¾ lengths from Overtook after producing an extended, grinding late bid; speed figures are headed in the right direction but with some work still to be done; room for further improvement and clearly will be suited by 10F and farther; seems likely to produce another forward move in the 9F Wood Memorial-G2 in early April in a race that he’ll very likely be favored.
*
9 – PREVALENCE (B. Walsh) – 120 lbs.
Pedigree: Medaglia d’Oro – Enrichment, by Ghostzapper
Lifetime record: 1-1-0-0 ($25,800). Derby points: 0
Last start: Jan. 23, 2021, Gulfstream Park, 7f Maiden Special Weight, finished first
Next start: TBD
Latest workout: March 5, Palm Meadows, 5f, 1:00.3b
The skinny: Godolphin homebred; half-brother to New York-bred stakes winner Libreta (by Giralomo); dam winless in eight starts but is a full-sister to top class middle distance turf G1 winner Better Lucky; successful at 7-1 in his debut by 8 ½ lengths in 7F maiden at Gulfstream Park in January, pressing the pace in hand and then kicking clear impressively without ever being asked in the final furlong; earned strong speed figure that really doesn’t even do his performance justice; bred to stay at least a middle distance and potentially farther; missed a scheduled start in the 8.5F Fountain of Youth S.-G2 in late February due to what was termed a minor illness; connections hoping to find an allowance race that can serve as a springboard to a major Triple Crown prep; clearly an exciting prospect but finds himself a bit behind the 8-ball with the Derby less than two months away and with no qualifying points on his resume.
*
10 – KEEPMEINMIND (R. Diodoro) – 119 lbs.
Pedigree: Laoban – Inclination, by Victory Gallop
Lifetime record: 4-1-2-1 ($60,020). Derby points: 18
Last start: Nov. 28, 2021, Churchill Downs, Kentucky Jockey Club S.-G2, finished first
Next start: March 13, 2021, Oaklawn Park, 8.5F Rebel S.-G2
Latest workout: March 5, Oaklawn Park, 5f, 1:02.1h
The skinny: From the first crop of the promising young Uncle Mo stallion Laoban but with strictly a; sprint female family; half-brother to GSP In Jack’s Memory (3rd, Amsterdam S.-G3); dam a sprint stakes winner and half-sister to two GSW sprinters Mellow Fellow and Zawzooth; in the frame in all four starts during a productive juvenile campaign that concluded with a maiden-breaking win in the 8.5F Kentucky Jockey Club S.-G2 at Churchill Downs in November; (form out of the race hasn’t held and the speed figure came up light); previously had produced a willing late bid with the strong help of the race-flow to finish a respectable third in the BC Juvenile-G1 (at 30-1) behind champion Essential Quality after winding up second to that same colt (by 3 ½ lengths) in the 8.5F Breeders’ Futurity-G1; has had his training interrupted periodically by poor weather at his home base at Oaklawn Park but is scheduled to make his sophomore debut in the 8.5F Rebel S.-G2 in mid-March; not particularly impressive in the speed figure department but the company lines look good; curious to see how much if any he’s progressed over the winter.
*
11 – HOT ROD CHARLIE (D. O’Neill) – 119 lbs.
Pedigree: Oxbow – Indian Miss, by Indian Charlie
Lifetime record: 6-1-1-02($395,700). Derby points: 10
Last start: Jan. 30, 2021, Santa Anita, 8.5F Robert B. Lewis S.-G3, finished third
Next start: March 20, 2021, Fair Grounds, 9.5F Louisiana Derby-G2
Latest workout: March 6, Santa Anita, 6f, 1:14h)
The skinny: $110,000Y, half-brother to champion sprinter Mtole; non-winning dam a half-sister to Davona Dale S.-G2 winner Live Lively; raced five times during his juvenile campaign, beating maidens in his fourth start before finishing second (with the help of the race-shape) to champion Essential Quality in BC Juvenile-G1 by ¾ length at 91-1 after striking the front in mid-stretch; performed well when third (beaten a neck) behind Medina Spirit and Roman Centurian) in his 3yo debut in late January in the Robert B. Lewis S.-3 while appearing to have winning momentum inside the furlong pole but then losing his punch close home; doesn’t have a great turn of foot and may be most effective as a stalker or pace presser; numbers are solid; Preakness winning sire helps in the stamina department but he’s no sure thing to be comfortable at a classic distance.
*
12 – ROCK YOUR WORLD (J. Sadler) – 118 lbs.
Pedigree: Candy Ride – Charm the Maker, by Empire Maker
Lifetime record: 2-2-0-0 ($96,600). Derby points: 0
Last start: Feb. 27, 2021, Santa Anita, Pasadena S., finished first
Next start: April 3, 2021, Santa Anita, 9F Santa Anita Derby-G1
Latest workout: None since raced
The skinny: $650,00Y; third foal, lengthy colt with plenty of scope; full-brother to California Gr.3-placed She’s Our Charm; dam multiple stakes winner from a high class staying turf family; unbeaten in two starts, both on grass, most recently when drawing clear with a good display of late speed to win the listed 8F Pasadena S. in visually pleasing style (by 2 ¼ lengths from Cathkin Peak) before being hard to pull up and galloping out full of run; previously had debuted over 6F on grass and registered a 1 ¾ length victory with a good number despite being eased up in the final stages while appearing to toy with his opposition; pedigree suggests he’ll handle any surface and be able to cope with a classic distance though he appears to be a better move on turf than on the main track according to his workouts; will get his opportunity on dirt in the 9F Santa Anita Derby-G1 in early April; at which time his Triple Crown prospects will become apparent; still has plenty to prove but remains an exciting prospect, at the very least on grass.
*
Knocking on the door: Proxy (M. Stidham); Collaborate (S. Joseph, Jr); Dream Shake (P. Eurton); Helium (M. Casse), Midnight Bourbon (S. Asmussen); Wayburn (J. Jerkins); Rombauer (M. McCarthy); Spielberg (B. Baffert)
