The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players. The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play. Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.
The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Top selection indicated in bold-face.
A=Highest degree of confidence.
C=Least preferred, or pass.
X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.
Saturday, August 12, 2017
RACE 1: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 1-Pretty Expensive; 2-Spinyatta
Forecast: There’s not much to work with in this bottom-rung maiden claimer for fillies and mares. Spinyatta has a huge edge in the speed figure department over Pretty Expensive, so she could leave as low as even money or even less. Both have the proper style for this extended sprint distance, with ‘Expensive having more room to improve with just one prior start under her belt. You may find the need to use both in your rolling exotics but in any case there’s very little value to be found here.
RACE 2: Post 2:35 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Pedro Cerrano; 6-Next Speaker; G. A. Betting
Forecast: Pedro Cerrano had a right to be a short horse in his comeback last month and weakened late after being under pressure from the start. He’s stuck on the rail again today but should be fitter with that effort behind him, and this one-level class drop won’t hurt his chances, either. Next Speaker, claimed for $25,000 out of a strong effort up north and dropping to $16,000 in his first start for Bonde, is more than good enough on his best day but this pattern doesn’t really inspire confidence. The Broken Vow gelding does have a prior win over the track and should be comfortably placed outside stalking the pace so we’ll toss him in. G. A. Betting was a voided claim last time out and finally makes it back to the races more than two months later while dropping to his lowest level ever. He’s perfect at Del Mar (one-for-one) and gets a break in the weights with the switch to Roman, so he’s probably worth including as well.
RACE 3: Post 3:09 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 1-Nodiac; 2-Gone to Bali; 3-Barleysugar
Forecast: Just six entrants in this second-level allowance turf route affair for fillies and mares but top to bottom a chance. Nodiac shortens to a mile and always has run well over this course, so we’re expecting her usual honest effort. A nice breeze around dogs earlier this week (see workout) should have her on edge. Gone to Bali has been away for more than a year but she catches a field comprised mostly of closers and surely will be the controlling speed. If ready, she’ll take them a long ways and is worth including at 8-1 on the morning line. Barleysugar, away since March but training well enough to fit (see workout), won here fresh last year and could be tough if covered up early and allowed to run late.
RACE 4: Post: 3:40 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Sweetwater Gal; 6-La Galy
Forecast: We’ll try to get by using just two in this restricted (nw-2) $16,000 claiming sprint for fillies and mares. Sweetwater Gal should be well-suited by this extended sprint distance and if she can avoid trouble from the rail she seems certain to be heard from late. A healthy work tab at Los Alamitos since her maiden claiming win in late May should have her spot on, and this considerable break in weights with the switch to bug boy Roman won’t hurt, either. La Galy seems on the upgrade for low profile connections and on pure numbers in a solid contender. She usually prefers to be held up early and produced late, but her gate-to-wire win two races back charts nicely here, so Bednar can evaluate the break and then choose his strategy.
RACE 5: Post 4:10 PT. Grade: B
Use: 4-Forest Blue; 6-Los Borrachos
Forecast: Forest Blue returns to his claim level after being protected in his last three starts, each of which earned a speed figure that will make him very tough to beat against this group of $25,000 sprinters. Baze stays aboard and knows him well. Los Borrachos, a New York invader seeking some of that valuable ship-and-win money, is a late-running sprinter with four wins and 12 seconds and thirds, so he’s usually a threat but more often than not settles for a secondary award. We expect to have this race surrounded using the best pace-presser and the best closer, with ‘Blue the preferred top selection.
RACE 6: Post 4:40 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 4-Jet Set Man; 10-Versante
Forecast: We’ll use just two in this chaotic turf sprint but feel free to spread if you can afford to. Jet Set Man had a perfect trip and every chance when second, beaten a head, in a similar spot over this course and distance last month. If he can produce any kind of forward move he’ll be in the battle once again. More intriguing – especially at 12-1 on the morning line – is Versante, a long shot maiden debut winner at Los Alamitos last month. He’ll need considerable improvement in the speed figure department to beat this tougher bunch but that could happen based on pedigree (Artie Schiller) with the switch to turf. Drawn outside, he’ll likely settle into a second flight position and have every chance from the head of the lane to the wire.
RACE 7: Post 5:10 PT. Grade: B
Use: 2-Steph Being Steph; 5-She’s Funny; 9-Ms Bad Behavior
Forecast: Trainer Richard Baltas doesn’t win often with first-timers but he did last week with a nice juvenile filly prospect and he may have another one here with the San Luis Rey Downs shipper Ms Bad Behavior, a Blame filly with a series of sharp works on her resume. With Bejarano taking the mount, she looks like a very live item. She’s Funny, a daughter of Tapit from the outstanding race mare Hystericalady, has done good work in the a.m. for trainer Richard Mandella and should be quick enough to make a serious run for it at this five furlong distance. Steph Being Steph brought $240,000 at the OBS April sale where she previewed impressively and looks well-meant for a barn that traditionally does well with young stock.
RACE 8: Post 5:40 PT. Grade: B+
Forecast: Kencumin makes his U.S. debut for Eurton and looks fit and ready for a winning effort in what will be his first career start on turf. The French-bred, English-raced colt ran twice during the winter in all-weather races and did very well, including his maiden-breaking score despite a poor start in a pretty decent affair at Southwell. His most recent work – an outstanding five furlong (around dogs) bullet drill – points him out, and from the good rail post and with Bejarano in the saddle he projects to enjoy an ideal, grounds-saving trip, assuming he breaks reasonably well.
RACE 9: Post 6:10 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 1-Run Away; 5-Serengeti
Forecast: We’re expecting this edition of Best Pal Stakes to boil down to the two favorites. Run Away has a stakes win already to his credit and is unbeaten (and plenty fast on numbers) in two starts, while Serengenti graduated in a gallop in his second career start while earning a speed figure that hardly does him justice. He’s also worked very well over this track since that race and should produce a significant forward move. We’ll include both in our rolling exotics and then press with extra tickets keying Serengeti.
RACE 10: Post 6:40 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 2-Data Central; 8-Big Buzz; 10-Respect the Hustle
Forecast: Data Central ran better than the line will show in a troubled debut last month at Santa Anita and seems sure to improve for the Desormeaux brothers. The son of Data Link appears to have an extended run and hopefully, today, he’ll have room to display it. Respect the Hustle has the two-sprints-and-a-stretch-out pattern we like and a pedigree to handle two-turns and turf. From a poor outside draw, he’ll probably drop back, tuck in, and then try to turn it on late. Big Buzz has worked only moderately for his debut but this will be his first taste of grass and he could be a much better type on the lawn then he’s shown in the dirt drills. At 12-1 on the morning line under Bejarano, he’s worth tossing in on a ticket or two.
Saturday, August 12, 2017
RACE 1: Post 1:00 ET. Grade: B+
Single: 5-Scarly Charly
RACE 2: Post 1:33 ET. Grade: B+
Use: 2-Airtouch; 3-Get the Facts; 9-Base Command
RACE 3: Post 2:07 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 2-Six Schillings; 3-Pioneer Spirit; 5-Driven by Thunder
RACE 4: Post: 2:41 ET. Grade: B+
Use: 1-Pure Silver; 3-Sly Roxy
RACE 5: Post 3:15 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 4-Azar; 10-Italian Charm; 12-Blarp
RACE 6: Post 3:59 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 3-Channel Cat; 4-Lone Sentry; 8-Sportswear
RACE 7: Post 4:25 ET. Grade: B
Use: 2-Coal Truth; 9-Coltandmississippi
RACE 8: Post 5:02 ET. Grade: B+
Single: 8-Off Limits
RACE 9: Post 5:40 ET. Grade: B
Use: 5-Lewys Vaporizer; 9-Cerro
RACE 10: Post 6:18 ET. Grade: B
Use: 3-Time Test; 6-Disco Partner
RACE 11: Post 6:54 ET. Grade: B+