The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players. The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play. Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.
The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Top selection indicated in bold-face.
A=Highest degree of confidence.
C=Least preferred, or pass.
X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.
Friday, August 11, 2017
RACE 1: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Southern Warlord; 4-Minister’s Glory; 9-Shane Doan
Forecast: Minister’s Glory has trained better than the final times would indicate and gives every indication of a live first-timer in an open fray. Southern Warlord exits a tough straight maiden state-bred affair (the first two finishers came back to run second and first in the Graduation Stakes) and certainly can improve at this lower level. Shane Doan will be trying to be the second Canterbury Downs invader to win this week and has credentials; he was a runner up in both of his starts vs. straight maidens while earning competitive numbers and adds blinkers while seeking some of that valuable ship-and-win money.
RACE 2: Post 2:35 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 2-French Getaway; 3-Chicacgo Style; 6-Little Scotty
Forecast: Chicago Style demolished a lesser field in his local debut over this course and distance and while tackling tougher seems more than capable of repeating with a similar effort. The son of Kitten’s Joy has won four of five career starts and is likely to continue his improving pattern. Hard to believe he began his career as a cheap maiden claimer at Tampa Bay Downs. Little Scotty may prove hard to catch if allowed to stroll on the front end as is his style. He seems more effective on this turf course than he is anywhere else. French Getaway shows a good marathon win two races back but failed to act in a main track stakes last time out. Back on the sod today, the son of Giant’s Causeway should return to his best form and be a major threat. We’ll use all three in our rolling exotics and then press a bit with Chicago Style on top.
RACE 3: Post 3:09 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 5-Willows Babe; 8-Sugaratsundown
Forecast: Willows Babe closed with interest to be second in both of her career starts but is dropping from maiden $62,500 to $32,000 today while apparently for sale. This hardly is a healthy pattern but Bejarano stays aboard and if she can avoid a major regression she’ll probably be along in time. Sugaratsundown is a first-time blinkers play showing up in a claimer, so she has every right to produce a forward move. The barn doesn’t win many but Baze jumps back aboard and rode this filly to a narrow second place finish in her debut in June.
RACE 4: Post: 3:40 PT. Grade: B
Use: 1-Preacher Roe; 3-Moving; 6-Crown the Kitten
Forecast: This is a restricted $32,000 claimer for non-winners in 2017. Preacher Roe just missed in an open $16,000 seller on the main track in his first start this year and should move forward for a barn that has terrific stats with second-off-layoff runners. He’s won on this course in the past, draws the good rail, and should find himself on or near the lead throughout. There’s some value here at 5-1 on the morning line if you can get it. Crown the Kitten is winless in two years and probably isn’t one to trust, but his recent numbers are solid for the level and should fire a big shot with this class drop following a brief vacation. Moving became very rank early and was spent by the top of the lane, but if he can relax at all of his new connections the War Front gelding could easily outrun his 20-1 morning line. Toss him in somewhere.
RACE 5: Post 4:10 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 1-Unobtainable; 7-Big Bad Gary; 9-Respect the Shot
Forecast: On paper this looks like a below par race for maiden $50,000 juveniles, so let’s try a fresh face on top, Respect the Shot. The Cerin-trained gelding is bred to win early (Tribal Rule) and has done enough in the morning to suggest he’s a fit in this league. Unobtainable flashed decent early zip in a softer spot earlier this month and managed to stick around to be a distant second while more than four clear of the rest. Not much better will be needed here. Big Bad Gary exits much tougher straight maiden events, has competitive speed figures, and seems likely to improve against this group. The barn rarely wins, but a little will go a long way in this modest affair.
RACE 6: Post 4:40 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 3-Pretty Owl; 7-Anonymity
Forecast: Pretty Owl was extremely well-meant in her debut but settled for second while almost four clear of the rest in a fast, highly-rated event for older straight maiden sprinting fillies and mares. Any kind of forward move – or even the same performance – will make her hard to beat for a barn that hits with 27% with second-time starters. The most dangerous of the newcomers is Anonymity, a daughter of Tapit in the Richard Mandella barn. A $600,000 yearling, she finally makes it to the post in August of her 3-year-old season and has shown enough ability in the morning to make her a contender at what should be a decent price. Let’s use both in our rolling exotics.
RACE 7: Post 5:10 PT. Grade: B+
Single: 2-Majestic Heat
Forecast: Majestic Heat bested Breeders’ Cup Turf Mile runner-up Om in a recent turf drill (see workout) to signal her readiness for her first start since November, so there’s every expectation that the daughter of Unusual Heat can successfully defend her Solana Beach Stakes title. This year’s edition might not be as strong as last year, and ‘Heat might actually be a better type this time around. The barn is superb with comebackers (26% with a flat-bet profit) and with Prat taking the call, she’s likely to go considerably lower than her morning line of 5/2.
RACE 8: Post 5:40 PT. Grade: C
Use: 1-Secret Touch; 2-Dukes Up; 5-Desert General; 8-Super Echelon
Forecast: The nightcap is a total scramble for starter’s allowance runners and requires a spread in rolling exotic play. Dukes Up returns to the D’Amato barn after a couple of Indiana Downs races; his career top number was accomplished two runs back and will make him the one to beat today if he can repeat it. Secret Touch looked fairly decent breaking his maiden for $50,000 here last month and projects to be prominent throughout from his inside draw. Desert General, in the frame in three of his last four starts with solid figures, remains protected by McCarthy and could fire a good shot off a six week vacation. Super Echelon returns to the main track and graduated on dirt three races back in good style with a number that gives him a reasonable look here.
Friday, August 11, 2017
RACE 1: Post 1:00 ET. Grade: B
Use: 4-Midnight Bounty; 5-La Inesperada
RACE 2: Post 1:33 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 1-More Than a Legend; 7-Lion in Wait; 10-Dynamic War
RACE 3: Post 2:07 ET. Grade: B
Use: 2-Lone Trader; 6-Alaskan Prince
RACE 4: Post: 2:41 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 4-Swift One; 5-Hard Hitter; 6-Star Empire
RACE 5: Post 3:15 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 2-Bridaled Temper; 5-Girl’s Night; 6-La Contessa
RACE 6: Post 3:59 ET. Grade: B
Use: 2-D’funnything; 4-Benevolence
RACE 7: Post 4:25 ET. Grade: B+
Use: 7-Bartleby; 8-Set Me Up; 10-Uncle Chester
RACE 8: Post 5:02 ET. Grade: B+
Use: 2-Cadeyrn; 6-Stallwalkin’ Dude
RACE 9: Post 5:40 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 4-High Jingo; 8-Objective Complete; 10-Sandy Belle
RACE 10: Post 6:18 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 2-War Canoe; 6-Cashless Society; 9-Prado Vision