The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players. The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play. Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.
The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Top selection indicated in bold-face.
A=Highest degree of confidence.
B=Solid Play.
C=Least preferred, or pass.
X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.
DEL MAR
Saturday, July 29, 2017
RACE 1: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 2-Ayacara; 5-Tatters to Riches; 6-Jungle Warfare
Forecast: Three of the six starters in the opener are outstanding prospects at various stages of development. First-timers Ayacara and Tatters to Riches have been very impressive in the morning and Jungle Warfare has the benefit of an excellent run under his belt. Maybe a slight edge on top could go to Tatters to Riches but we’ll use all three in our rolling exotics while otherwise passing the race.
RACE 2: Post 2:35 PT. Grade: C
Use: 1-Mama’s Sugar; 5-You’re the Reason; 7-Fabulous Lady
Forecast: Too many question marks here in what certainly should be a spread race; we’ll go three deep and hope to get by. Mama’s Super once was good enough but has been away for 11 months and returns cheap. You’re the Reason is a route-to-sprint, turf-to-dirt class dropper with a prior win over the course so she’s worth using. Fabulous Lady has turf numbers that fit but is suspect on dirt. Feel free to toss in anybody else you like.
RACE 3: Post 3:09 PT. Grade: B
Use: 1-My Italian Babbo; 2-G. G. Ryder
Forecast: G. G. Ryder just captured a graded stakes up north so against this state-bred group this veteran win-machine would appear to have a considerable class edge. My Italian Bobbo was very impressive winning his grass debut in his last start and has trained well since. Have to believe the winner will be one of these two.
RACE 4: Post: 3:40 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Another Girl Alma; 5-Munny Spunt; 7-Sly Humor
Forecast: Munny Spunt, first off the claim for O’Neill, gets a break in the weights with the switch to Roman and looks like the controlling speed. She’s won at this extended sprint distance in the past, earned a career top speed figure when second last time out, and should produce a forward move for her new connections. Sly Humor lands the comfy outside post and has the proper style for this strip. She switches to Prat, has worked well over the track, and should fire her best shot. If you can afford to toss in one more, consider Another Girl Alma, an improving Golden Gate shipper moving up the class ladder while seeking her third straight score.
RACE 5: Post 4:10 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 2-Tequila Sunrise; 4-Sauce On Side
Forecast: Tequila Sunrise was given an educational run in her debut while finishing eagerly to be second and today should be primed for a significant forward move while stretching out to a distance and surface she’s bred to love. Sauce On Side might deserve some consideration as well; the daughter of Violence was in over her head when fifth in her debut in the Landaluce Stakes but wasn’t knocked about and should improve a bunch with that effort behind her. She, too, should enjoy the added distance.
RACE 6: Post 4:40 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 3-Delitefull Lady; 9-Lake Time
Forecast: If Delitefull Lady is fully cranked up – and she’s been training at San Luis Rey Downs so who really knows? – the Baltas-trained filly will be hard to handle despite having not been out since January, when she easily disposed of subsequent Santa Anita Oaks winner Paradise Woods. Before that she was a distant third in her debut to Unique Bella. Lake Time got the rust off when a solid third at this level earlier this month at Santa Anita in her first start since November and will benefit greatly from the outing. She has a lovely outside draw and the perfect style for an extended sprint.
RACE 7: Post 5:10 PT. Grade: A-
Single: 6-Lady Mamba
Forecast: Lady Mamba finished in a dead-heat for third with Delitefull Lady (see sixth race) behind Unique Bella in her only outing last year and then was turned out. She returns with an impressive series of workouts that should have her fit and ready for a major effort over a surface and distance that she should excel over. She’s 9/2 on the morning line but we strongly suspect she leave considerably lower than that.
RACE 8: Post 5:40 PT. Grade: B
Use: 4-Gentrified; 11-Big League
Forecast: Gentrified has the perfect style for seven furlongs – he likes to settle into stride and then produced an extended run – and after beating a softer field last month at Santa Anita with a career top number the Cerin-trained gelding looks ideally spotted for a repeat score with Prat riding him back. Big League was all the rage over this track last year in a couple of sharp efforts as a 2-year-old but then never progressed for Miller. He’s in for a tag for the first time, returns to his preferred track, exits a much tougher race, and get a nice draw outside.
RACE 9: Post 6:10 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Drefong; 4-Ransom the Moon; 8-Roy H
Forecast: The Breeders’ Cup Sprint will be staged under these identical conditions, so we’ll see which of the locals can establish their preference for the course and distance. Drefong hasn’t been out since winning the BC Sprint last November but Baffert has put the hammer to him in the a.m. and the son of Gio Ponti should be fit. However, he’s worked well but not great and it’s possible he’s a race away. Roy H has never been better and is faster on numbers than Drefong. He has the edge in current condition and has worked in spectacular fashion since returning from New York. Ransom the Moon could be a strong late threat if a pace meltdown occurs, and that’s certainly a possibility.
RACE 10: Post 6:40 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Westwood Wizard; 2-Popyhowespelcupcak; 3-Uber Star
Forecast: The main contention is drawn inside in this starter allowance turf miler. Popyhowespelcupak won his only start with authority in Florida in May; now he’s in the Billy Morey barn seeking some of that valuable ship and win money and makes his local bow with blinkers and Bejarano. Morey has another main player in Uber Star, a race-shape-aided maiden claiming winner last month at Santa Anita in his first start since switching barns. Two nice local workouts since that race should have him on edge. Westwood Wizard could be the controlling speed from the rail and if his improvement continues the Hard Spun gelding might take this field a very long way.
SARATOGA
Saturday, July 29, 2017
(updated 8:20 a.m. PT)
RACE 1: Post 1:00 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 2-Lionite; 3-Bourbon Resolution; 5-Mojovation
RACE 2: Post 1:33 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 3-Pagliacci; 8-Hieroglyphics; 11-Hembree
RACE 3: Post 2:07 ET. Grade: B+
Single: 3-Kirby’s Penny
RACE 4: Post: 2:41 ET. Grade: B+
Single: 3-El Dulce
RACE 5: Post 3:15 ET. Grade: B+
Use: 2-Coal Front; 6-Toga Challenger
RACE 6: Post 3:59 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Tathqeef; 9-Spring Up; 1-Nessy
RACE 7: Post 4:25 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Vagabond; 7-Mom On Strike; 8-Ack Naughty
RACE 8: Post 5:02 ET. Grade: B
Use: 4-A. P. Indian; 8-Limousine Liberal
RACE 9: Post 5:40 ET. Grade: B
Use: 4-Sadler’s Joy; 7-Ascend
RACE 10: Post 6:18 ET. Grade: B+
Single: 2-Cloud Computing
RACE 11: Post 6:54 ET. Grade: B+
Single: 2-Durable Goods
