The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players. The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play. Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.
The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Top selection indicated in bold-face.
A=Highest degree of confidence.
C=Least preferred, or pass.
X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.
Friday, July 28, 2017
RACE 1: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 5-Mis Viola; 7-Terra Lago
Forecast: An unclassified field of maiden claiming juvenile fillies kicks off the Friday program (late first post of 4:00 PT). Terra Lago hails from a barn that does quite well with debut runners (23% with a flat-bet profit) and she shows a few decent works at San Luis Rey Downs to indicate some ability. A little will go a long way against this group. Mis Viola chased a much tougher field in her debut and seems likely to produce a forward move. We’ll try to get by using just these two but not without a great deal of confidence.
RACE 2: Post 2:35 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 1-El Super; 3-Pick One
Forecast: Pick One earned a career top speed figure in his most recent start but this seems like a realistic class drop (from starter’s allowance to restricted $25,000) for the Wright-trained gelding, who stretches out again and has a prior win around two turns. The Bay Area invader switches to Prat and seems the solid choice. El Super tackles easier and likely will try gate-to-wire tactics under Pedroza. His only win came on turf, but the Mulhall-trained gelding shouldn’t be inconvenienced by the surface switch. We’ll use both in our rolling exotics and then press with extra tickets keying Pick One.
RACE 3: Post 3:09 PT. Grade: C
Use: 1-Zuri Chop; 2-No Silent; 3-Stormy Rocit
Forecast: The third race is an inscrutable five furlong turf sprint. We’ll use three, but if you can afford to go deeper, go right ahead. Stormy Rocit shows up in a claimer after failing as the choice in the Albany Stakes over this trip at Golden Gate Fields. He’s back with Baze, who won in him two races back in a race that charts quite well in this event. No Silent is an ex-classer with outstanding local form, but he’s eight-year-olds old now and clearly isn’t what he used to be. He’s strictly a late-runner and will need some luck from the top of the lane to the wire. Zuri Chop won over this course and distance last year and should regain his best form with the return to turf. He’s only 3-for-35 lifetime with 20 seconds and thirds, so he’s more likely to hit the board rather than win.
RACE 4: Post: 3:40 PT. Grade: B
Use: 6-Zuzu’s Petals; 9-Freedom Journey
Forecast: Though she was beaten at 50 cents on the dollar (after a slow start) in a starter’s race earlier this month, Zuzu’s Petals seems capable of making amends in this $20,000 claimer. She likes the Del Mar main track, retains Bejarano, gets an extra furlong to work with and earned a number two races back that is more than good enough to beat this field. Freedom Journey looked good breaking her maiden last October at Santa Anita but then disappeared. If she returns as well as she left – her work tab looks okay but not great – she’ll be a factor.
RACE 5: Post 4:10 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Bold Papa; 3-Bottle Service; 8-Kings River King
Forecast: Cal-bred maidens meet over a mile on turf in the first leg of the late-Pick-4, with a familiar rivals getting together again. Bold Papa and Kings River King were noses apart in a recent downhill turf sprint recently and both should be in the battle again, though we suspect ‘King will be better suited to today’s distance. Bottle Service was nosed in a competitive state-bred turf miler last month while more than seven clear of the others and not much better will be needed to graduate today. We’ll try to survive and advance using just these three.
RACE 6: Post 4:40 PT. Grade: B
Use: 2-Elwood J; 6-Ann Arbor Eddie
Forecast: Both of the wins by Elwood J came sprinting, so we suspect this turn back in trip will greatly benefit the son of Vronsky. And excellent third in a turf miler last month, the son of Vronsky has the right style for this seven furlong trip and broke his maiden at first asking as a two-year-old over the Del Mar main track last year. He’s 4-1 on the morning line and that seems about right. Ann Arbor Eddie earned a career top figure when an off-the-pace allowance winner at Los Alamitos about three weeks ago, and a similar effort today makes him the likely choice and one to beat.
RACE 7: Post 5:10 PT. Grade: B+
Forecast: Oregon earned a career top speed figure when easily handling maidens over a mile on turf at Santa Anita in mid-June and a healthy work pattern since gives indication that the son of Mizzen Mist will produce another forward move despite the rise to a first-level allowance event. From where he’s drawn, the Shirreffs-trained colt should draft into an ideal second flight, ground-saving position, similar to the trip he enjoyed when breaking his maiden. There’s value here at 4-1 on the morning line if you can get it.
RACE 8: Post 5:40 PT. Grade: B+
Single: 2-Rick’s Dream
Forecast: Rick’s Dream has much in his favor in this maiden claiming main track miler. In the money in his last three starts with rising speed figures, the son of Coil lands a nice inside post in his first try around two turns and should have every chance to stretch out and win. He’s 7/2 on the morning line and we’ll feel fortunate if he leaves at anywhere near that price.
Friday, July 28, 2017
RACE 1: Post 1:00 ET. Grade: B+
Single: 2-Madam Aamoura
RACE 2: Post 1:33 ET. Grade: B
Use: 2-Dark as Midnight; 8-Lightning Buzz
RACE 3: Post 2:07 ET. Grade: B+
Single: 2-Bodie’s Valentine
RACE 4: Post: 2:41 ET. Grade: C
Use: 1-Draxhall Woods; 5-Will Did It; 6-Gambler’s Ghost; 7-Driving Me Crazy
RACE 5: Post 3:15 ET. Grade: B+
Single: 4-Big Gemmy
RACE 6: Post 3:59 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 5-Regal Roma; 7-Flattermefabulous
RACE 7: Post 4:25 ET. Grade: B+
RACE 8: Post 5:02 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Rapt; 7-Gauguin; 8-Rocketry
RACE 9: Post 5:40 ET. Grade: B
Use: 2-Outplay; 3-Small Bear
RACE 10: Post 6:18 ET. Grade: C
Use: 2-Sicilia Mike; 4-Colonel Andy; 7-Atwitzend; 9-Toast to Ghost