The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players. The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play. Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.
The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Top selection indicated in bold-face.
A=Highest degree of confidence.
C=Least preferred, or pass.
X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.
Monday, May 28, 2018
RACE 1: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 1-Dianka; 2-South Boot Shirley; 8-Super Patriot
Forecast: The Memorial Day opener is a messy maiden claimer for fillies and mares over a mile on turf. We’ll go three-deep and hope that’s enough. Super Patriot is a 10-race maiden and not one to trust, but she’s hit the board in each of her last four outings and her numbers make her a fit in this league. Freshened since early April, the Baffert-trained daughter of Unusual Heat seems as good as any. South Bay Shirley ran well in a state-bred straight maiden turf event recently and earned a speed figure that fits at this level. She has good tactical speed and room for further improvement. Dianka has okay from in Arizona and might be competitive on this circuit, though her numbers will need a boost. From the rail she should enjoy a ground-saving trip, gets in light, and probably should be included on a ticket or two.
RACE 2: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 3-Sunny Holly; 4-Lippy
Forecast: Lippy acts like a quick filly and appears primed for a big effort first crack out of the box. The daughter of Square Eddie gets top billing over Sunny Holly, another first-timer with a good series of drills for the Gary Mandella barn. She has speed breeding (Shackleford) and a recent bullet blowout. This appears to be a better than average baby race and we’re expecting the winner to be one of these two.
RACE 3: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 2-Chrisiscookin; 3-Stringent
Forecast: Stringent will bury this field if he has one good one left, but the pattern isn’t healthy and at 8/5 on the morning line (and likely to go lower) the Hofmans-trained gelding doesn’t offer any real wagering value. We’ll use him in our rolling exotics but not single him. The better-priced Chrisiscookin just won a restricted (Nw-2) $12,500 sprint in good fashion with a career-top speed figure and looks tough right back despite the raise to $16,000 (Nw-3). He gets a break in the weights with the switch to bug boy Figueroa and should be on or near the lead throughout.
RACE 4: Post: 2:00 PT. Grade: B
Use: 6-Flammetta; 7-An Eddie Surprise
Forecast: This starter allowance downhill turf sprint for 3-year-old fillies has two main contenders. Flammetta had no excuse when fourth over a mile in her last outing but earned a pretty good number and today tackles easier while turning back to a sprint. The switch to Prat doesn’t hurt, either. An Eddie Surprise lands the cozy outside draw and earned a career top figure when winning from similar over this course and distance earlier this month. We’ll give a very slight edge to Flammetta and have an extra ticket or two keying her on top.
RACE 5: Post 2:30 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 2-Briartic Gal; 3-Jill Madden; 4-Ipray
Forecast: Bottom-rung claiming fillies and mares meet over a mile on the main track in the first leg of the Pick-6. Ipray has four wins over this main track and returns to her claim level following a solid third place effort vs. $10,000 foes. She’s a major player with her best effort, so we’ll put her slightly on top. Briartic Gal and Jill Madden just finished one-two at this level, with ‘Madden getting a two pound break in the weights today. We’ll go with these three in our rolling exotics but if you may find the need to spread a little deeper.
RACE 6: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: B
Use: 1-Stone Hands; 2-St. Joe Bay; 3-El Huerfano
Forecast: Stone Hands has never been sharper, earning a career top speed figure when beating a strong first-level allowance field earlier this month with complete authority. Today’s extra furlong shouldn’t be an issue, though the rail post does him no favors. The Miller-trained duo of St. Joe Bay and El Huerfano both can be formidable with their best efforts. The former returns from Oaklawn Park where he was well below his best in four starts but always has liked this main track while the latter, away since November, might be using this race as a prep for a stretch-out but still must be considered dangerous. Let’s try to survive and advance using these three, with preference on top to Stone Hands.
RACE 7: Post 3:30 PT. Grade: B
Use: 2-Bowies Hero; 5-Hunt; 7-Arms Runner
Forecast: D’Amato has two major contenders with Bowies Hero and Hunt, and we’ll use both along with the long shot Arms Runner while trying to beat the logical top pick, the need-the-lead type Heart to Heart, who may be vulnerable if the speedy Om is sent from the rail. ‘Hero just won the Gr. 1 Kilroe Mile under these conditions and should fire a similar shot today. Hunt, away since November, has trained like he’s fit and ready and has four prior wins over the Santa Anita turf course. ‘Runner had a good prep down the hill in his seasonal bow, and while he may be overmatched on paper he should be good enough to at least outrun his 15-1 morning line. Bowie’s Hero gets the nod on top but we’ll use him, Hunt, and Arms Runner in rolling exotic play.
RACE 8: Post 4:00 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 4-Wandering Patrol
Forecast: Wandering Patrol scored at first asking like a filly with some quality and won’t need any better to come right back and win on the raise against this below-average first-level state-bred allowance field. The daughter of Square Eddie has a decided edge in speed figures, so we’ll make her a straight play and rolling exotic single while expecting lower odds than her morning line of 3-1.
RACE 9: Post 4:30 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 4-Bragging Rights; 11-Power Booked
Forecast: We’ll double the ninth race, a maiden $20,000 claimer for 3-year-old fillies. Bragging Rights seems the best of the known element, having finished in the money in her last three, most recently with a career top number when a closing second at five and one-half furlongs. Today she gets an extra furlong to work with, and with patient handling should be hard to contain in the final stages. Power Booked is a first-timer from the Baltas barn with a steady if unspectacular work tab at San Luis Rey Downs. She lands the good outside post and really won’t have to be any sort of world beater to act with these.
RACE 10: Post 5:00 PT. Grade: B
Use: 3-Belvoir Bay; 6-Ancient Secret; 9-Compelled
Forecast: Belvoir Bay and Ancient Secret are Hillside course specialists and both are genuine and consistent. ‘Bay is the quicker of the two but ‘Secret can really blast home, and with clear sailing will be difficult to fend off. Compelled is intriguing; she’s been two-turning most of her career but strikes us as being most effective sprinting, and should love this trip. We’ll give ‘Bay a slight edge on top but include all three in rolling exotic play.