Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies for Friday, June 1, 2018

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST).  For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.

SANTA ANITA

Friday, June 1, 2018

RACE 1: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: X

Single: 6-Greycaster

Forecast:  Greycaster is dropped to a realistic spot while returning to the main track, and from his cozy outside draw he should be able to control this race from an idea pace-stalking position.  He’s reunited with “win rider” Prat, and a repeat of effort two or three races back lands him in the winner’s circle.   However, at 6/5 on the morning line he’ll be too short to play, but we can use him as a no-value, rolling exotic single.

 

​​RACE 2: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B

Use: 1-Kylemore; 4-La La Land

Forecast:  La La Land will be the heavy choice after just missing in a photo in the Singletary Stakes over this course and distance last month.  The Irish-bred 3-year-old drops into a conditioned allowance affair and will be hard to contain with anything close to his best effort.  As a saver, we’ll also use on a ticket or two Kylemore, a first-time gelding for Harty.  The son of Tiz Wonderful lands the rail, catches a field without any real speed and could be dangerous if allowed to establish a slow pace without pressure.

 

​​RACE 3: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: X

Single:  6-Touching Rainbows

Forecast:  Here’s another short price favorite, Touching Rainbows, listed at 6/5 on the morning line and very likely to go odds-on.  The D’Amato-trained gelding earned a career top speed figure when winning his seasonal bow in late April from a slightly softer field and nothing more will be needed to score right back.  From his comfortable outside draw, the son of Aragorn can place himself wherever Prat wants him to be.  He’s another no-value, rolling exotic single.

 

​​​RACE 4: Post: 2:00 PT. Grade: B

Use:  3-Bobbie Lincoln; 6-Ib Prospecting

Forecast:  The fourth race is a restricted (Nw-2) $25,000 claiming sprint for fillies and mares and may be a bit stronger than average for the level.  Ib Prospecting looked good breaking her maiden for $20,000 last time out while earning a speed figure good enough to make her a major player right back.  It was only her second career dirt sprint in six career starts – she was second in her debut in her only other attempt – so we’re expecting a similar effort today, perhaps even better.  Bobbie Lincoln won her debut a year ago March and then disappeared.  She returns in a logical spot for Ellis and has worked well enough to indicate fitness.  If she returns as well as she left she’ll be right there.  Let’s try to get by using just these two.

 

​​RACE 5: Post 2:30 PT. Grade: B

Use: 6-Vasilika; 8-The Tulip

Forecast:  Vasilika is genuine and consistent, and has continue to improve with each outing since joining the Hollendorfer barn via a $40,000 claim in April.  A winner of four of her last five, the daughter of Skipshot has excellent tactical speed to insure a good trip.  The Tulip actually is a bit faster on pure numbers based on her most recent outing, a strong runner-up effort vs. similar in a fast, highly-rated affair.  She’s a deep closer whose best chance hinges on a decent early pace.  We’ll give Vasilika a slight edge on top but use both in our rolling exotics.

 

​​​​RACE 6: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: B

Use: 1-Storming Lady; 8-Hot Autumn

Forecast:  Storming Lady and Hot Autumn exit the same powerful race and both should verify the strength of that maiden sprint won by Armada Rafaela.  ‘Lady, a weakening fourth in her debut, must leave from the rail but arguably has a bit more room to improve than ‘Autumn, who lands the much better outside post but has three prior outings.  A win by any of the others would be a surprise, so let’s double this race in rolling exotic play while giving Storming Lady a very slight edge on top.

 

​​​RACE 7: Post 3:30 PT.  Grade: B-

Use: 7-Palace Paynter; 9-Twisted Rosie

Forecast:  Palace Paynter just dominated a starter’s allowance field by more than five lengths, a win that came on the heels of an equally impressive runaway maiden $30,000 win.  Yet, despite those two visually pleasing performances, the Miller-trained sophomore filly is being dangled for $20,000, hardly a healthy sign.  If she has one good one left she’ll be tough again, but clearly she’s not being protected by a barn that must be trying to lose her.  Twisted Rosie is a fit on figures and should have clear sailing and every chance from her outside draw.  This is her lowest level ever, but unlike ‘Paynter, this drop in class is understandable.  She’s reunited with her favorite jockey, Desormeaux, and likely will receive the patient rider she prefers.

 

​​​​​RACE 8: Post 4:00 PT.  Grade: B

Use: 1-Casino Red; 6-Mybluebell; 9-Luminoso

Forecast:  Luminoso looked pretty good winning her 2018 bow over this course and distance in late April, and with just a minor forward she can score right back in her first try vs. winners.  Both of her outings over this turf course have been quite good.  Mybluebell makes her U.S. debut for Hess and has trained well enough on dirt to indicate she’s fit for a good effort.  Her form in the French provinces is pretty decent and should make her a strong contender at this level on this circuit.  Casino Red earned a big number when second in a hot race here in late April and should enjoy an ideal, ground-saving trip from her rail post.  It was her first in blinkers; let’s see if she can duplicate that performance today.

 

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies for Friday, June 1, 2018

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