The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players. The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play. Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go four-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.
The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Top selection indicated in bold-face.
A=Highest degree of confidence.
C=Least preferred, or pass.
X=likely winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.
Friday, May 10, 2019
Use: 2-River God; 3-Temple Secret; 4-Formal Dude
Forecast: The opener is a $75,000 maiden-claimer over a mile on turf that appears fairly wide open, requiring a spread in rolling exotic play. We’ll try to get by using just three. Temple Secret had one outing last fall down the hill in a productive straight maiden special weight event before being stopped on and returns in a realistic spot for a barn that has solid stats with layoff runners. Prat rides him back, and the first-time gelding sports a recent work tab that should have him plenty fit and ready. Formal Dude has been away even longer – he hasn’t been out since March of 2018 – but when last seen the gelded son of First Dude was earning a career top speed figure in a runner-up performance on dirt in a two-turn straight maiden affair. He ran reasonably in his race before last over the local lawn and returns for a high-percentage jockey/trainer combo. River God flashed improvement when second vs. a slightly softer band over this course and distance last month and with another forward move could make a serious run for it.
RACE 2: Post 1:34 PT. Grade: B
Use: 2-Clear the Mine; 5-Bay Area
Forecast: Bay Area, making his first start since a $6,250 claim by Vallejo (27% with a strong flat-bet profit), returns from Golden Gate Fields and has numbers that make him a strong contender despite the raise in class. He also gets a break in the weights with the switch to talented bug boy Velez and switches to conventional dirt, which he handles just fine. Clear the Mine hasn’t had much of a year so far (one third place finish in five starts) but this drop to the $10,000 restricted claiming level, the cheapest field he’s ever faced, may wake him up. The Knapp-trained veteran is reunited with “win rider” Fuentes and should draft into a comfortable second flight trip and then have every chance when it counts.
RACE 3: Post 2:10 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 4-Vegan; 5-Cheap Cheap Cheap
Forecast: Here’s the first baby race of the season, a four and one-half furlong dash for state-bred maiden 2-year-old fillies. Vegan is a January foal by excellent 2-year-old sire Square Eddie and was given a good foundation at San Luis Rey Downs by trainer Doug O’Neill. Gutierrez usual gets the pick of the litter from this stable, so let’s make an educated guess and put her on top. O’Neil’s other first-timer, Cheap Cheap Cheap, is another daughter of Square Eddie vanning up from the trainer center. He work tab looks equally decent, so we’ll include her as well in our rolling exotics.
RACE 4: Post 2:45 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Persephone; 4-Seaside Dancer
Forecast: Persephone stretched out for the first time in a maiden $50,000 claimer over this course and distance last month and turned in a sharp winning effort despite a less-than-ideal trip. She earned a good number in victory, retains Prat, and seems quite capable of repeating in this tougher starter optional claimer. Seaside Dancer seeks her third straight after a game score in a $20,000 claimer over the Golden Gate Fields turf while earning a career top speed figure, one that makes her a fit in this league on this circuit. Both of her recent wins have been accomplished in gate-to-wire fashion and we suspect similar tactics with be employed today. We’ll double the race in rolling exotic play and then have a few extra tickets keying Persephone on top.
RACE 5: Post 3:17 PT. Grade: B
Use: 2-Cabin John; 3-Treasure Hunter; 5-Arch Prince
Forecast: Treasure Hunter earned a giant speed figure when beating a restricted $35,000 claiming field in late February at this one mile trip and returns for the same price vs. open company while continuing to look extra sharp in the morning. The Palma-trained gelding has finished first or second in seven of 11 career starts over the Santa Anita main track should be primed for another big effort. Arch Prince was in too steep when fourth in the Tokyo City S.-G3 over 12 furlongs in his most recent outing but shortens to his favorite distance and returns to reality with regards to class. Two easy workouts since raced give indication that he’s doing well and ready to return to his best form. Cabin John moves up in class after a strong win over this track and distance last month and projects to enjoy a nice pace-stalking trip once again. The son of Gio Ponti likes to win races, retains Bejarano, and recently worked a bullet five furlongs in a blazing 58 1/5 seconds over the training track.
RACE 6: Post 3:50 PT. Grade: B
Use: 1-Smoovie; 6-Sedamar; 8-Lostintranzlation
Forecast: Lostintranzlation lost a heartbreaker in her comeback when facing the boys at this entry-level allowance state-bred level last month and today returns to face a group of fillies and mares that her best should handle. She likes the front end but doesn’t need the lead to win, so Franco can play it by ear. Smoovie was out of her element in the Royal Heroine S.-G2 last time out but is realistically spotted today and should enjoy an ideal ground-saving trip from her inside draw. Her win over this course and distance two runs back should make her competitive at this level. Sedamar ran well in her first start of the year recently, finishing a solid third in a similar state-bred affair. If she can produce a forward move, the lightly-raced daughter of Richard’s Kid could have some say in the matter in the final furlong. We’ll use all three in our rolling exotics but press with Lostintranzlation on top.
RACE 7: Post 4:20 PT. Grade: X
Single: 4-Uno Trouble Maker
Forecast: Uno Trouble Maker is 6/5 on the morning and looks it on paper. The Spawr-trained filly seeks her third straight win following a romp in a similar starter’s allowance sprint in late February, and with a healthy, steady work tab since that race the daughter of Successful Appeal should be hard to beat, though without much value being offered. We’ll use her as a logical rolling exotic single but otherwise pass the race.
RACE 8: Post 4:50 PT. Grade: B
Use: 6-Rickey B; 7-My Mandate
Forecast: My Mandate sports the route-to-sprint angle that we like and probably is most effective around one turn. The son of Strong Mandate graduated two runs back with a speed figure that should be good enough to beat this allowance optional claiming field of 3-year-olds. Rickey B tries grass for the first time, and if he can reproduce his best dirt form on the lawn he could have a say in the matter. He’s a first-off-the-claim for Sadler and gets a big break in the weights with the switch to bug boy Diaz. Both should be included in rolling exotic play; we’ll have extra tickets keying My Mandate on top.