The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players. The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play. Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go four-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.
The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Top selection indicated in bold-face.
A=Highest degree of confidence.
C=Least preferred, or pass.
X=likely winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.
Sunday, May 5, 2019
Use: 3-Unbridled Ethos; 5-Rinse and Repeat;7-Foster Boi
Forecast: The opener is a first-level allowance turf miler for California-bred runners and looks a bit chaotic, with several question marks among the major contenders. We’ll go three-deep but otherwise pass the race. Foster Boi returns to grass, stretches out for the first time, and may have the most upside in the race, though he’s a bit shy in the speed figure department and will be tackling older foes. The son of Boisterous shows a bullet half-mile workout since raced, so improvement is likely. Rinse and Repeat is racing in good form but always has struck us as a one-turn specialist. If he can route, he can win. Unbridled Ethos didn’t beat a whole lot when breaking his maiden down the hill in February, but his figures are competitive and could wind up being the controlling speed.
RACE 2: Post 1:29 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 2-Conquest Smartee; 3-Spanish Bay
Forecast: The second race, a five-runner maiden claiming sprint, offers little in the way of wagering value. Spanish Bay is a sparingly-raced gelding with enough early speed to clear this field, shortens up a half-furlong, and may never look back with any kind of forward move following a runner-up effort vs. similar in February. Conquest Smartee already has had 10 chances and really isn’t one to trust, but he’s hit the board in four of his last five starts and should be in the fray throughout. Both should be used in rolling exotic play.
RACE 3: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Synthesis; 4-Swamp Souffle
Forecast: Synthesis was out of his element in the Santa Anita Derby (he finished fifth, beaten 10 lengths) but he gets blinkers today for the first time and certainly is a fit in this nine-furlong entry-level allowance event. If he can transfer his dirt form to grass, he should win. Swamp Souffle crushed a $32,000 claiming field with a career-top number last time out and appears to have been a timely purchase by Spawr, who protects and raises him in a sign of confidence. He’s already won on turf – he took an optional claimer at Del Mar in December – and may try gate-to-wire tactics if none of the other four entrants takes the initiative. We’ll prefer Synthesis on top but include both in our rolling exotics.
RACE 4: Post 2:31 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Derby Storm; 6-Blue Skye Jade
Forecast: Blue Skye Jade is improving with racing and may be ready to graduate in this maiden $25,000 main track miler for 3-year-olds. Bug boy Velez, who is a better rider than his local record would indicate, should have him comfortably placed in a pace-stalking position throughout. Derby Storm finished a nose behind ‘Jade when third in that April 19 race and is assured a ground-saving trip from his inside draw. Low percentage connections notwithstanding, he’s a major player and a “must use.”
RACE 5: Post 3:03 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 3-Ocean Fury; 5-Boru
Forecast: Ocean Fury has that powerful maiden-to-maiden claiming angle and also is a second- off-a-layoff play for a barn that has excellent stats with both maneuvers. The son of Stormy Atlantic should appreciate this softer assignment and the nine-furlong trip, so we’ll put him on top and hope to get close to his morning line of 3-1. We’ll save with the first-time gelding Boru, a midwestern shipper making his first start in almost a year for Cerin (strong stats with comebackers). The son of Curlin could easily be a better type this time around.
RACE 6: Post 3:33 PT. Grade: B
Use: 2-Arcaro; 5-Beleth
Forecast: Beleth has the benefit of a strong race over the track for a barn that doesn’t win often with debut runners, so we’re expecting the son of Medaglia d’Oro to produce a forward move with that race behind him and with an additional half-furlong to work with. The Baffert-trained Arcaro acts like a quality colt and is the one to fear most. A series of solid workouts should have him plenty fit, and while the son of Tapit probably will eventually be best suited over a distance of ground, he should make his presence felt first time out. Beleth gets top billing but we’ll use both in our rolling exotics.
RACE 7: Post 4:03 PT. Grade: B+
Single: 6-Meal Ticket
Forecast: Meal Ticket exits by far the best race and seems primed to regain her winning form in her third start off a layoff. She’s a two-time winner over the local lawn, has prior numbers that tower over this field, and shows two easy workouts since finishing an excellent second in the Royal Heroine S.-G2 behind Vasilika. Do yourself a favor, Meal Ticket does the rest (as a rolling exotic single).
RACE 8: Post 4:33 PT. Grade: B+
Single: 5-Lucky Staxx
Forecast: Lucky Staxx has much in his favor in this five-runner starter’s allowance extended sprint. In his first start since last August, when he was claimed for $25,000 out of fast, highly-rated race, the veteran gelding is protected by Puype, and from his cozy outside post Gryder can pop and go or stalk and pounce. At 7/2 on the morning line there’s value to be found both in the straight pool and as a rolling exotic single.
RACE 9: Post 5:03 PT. Grade: B
Use: 8-Jetovator; 9-Desmond Doss
Forecast: Jetovator flashed ability in his debut when a solid third over this course and distance last month and seems likely to produce a forward move for Eurton, whose record with this angle is pretty solid. Bejarano stays aboard the son of Grazen, who should be forwardly placed and might even be quick enough to make the running. Desmond Doss, another son of Grazen, has worked well enough for D’Amato to be given consideration in this state-bred affair. Most of this barn’s young stock run better than they work, so this colt has the look of a live first-timer. Both should be included in rolling exotic play.