Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis & Wagering Strategies for Saturday, April 27, 2019

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6. 

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go four-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST).  For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

​Top selection indicated in bold-face.

A=Highest degree of confidence.  

B=Solid Play.  

C=Least preferred, or pass.  

X=likely winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.


Saturday, April 27, 2019


RACE 1: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 2-Dallas Skyline; 5-Flip the Coin Jan; 6-Magic Musketier

Forecast: The opener is a $40,000 claiming turf scramble over a mile that has several possibilities and requires a spread in rolling exotic play.  We’ll go three-deep and hope that’s enough.  Flip the Coin Jan exits a hot downhill turf sprint and stretches out to a more comfortable trip while switching to Talamo.  He could find himself as the controlling speed and will take some catching if he can shake loose early without pressure.  Magic Musketier ran well when a close third at this level two runs back and then was overmatched vs. second-level allowance foes in his most recent outing.  He’ll be running on late.  Dallas Skyline hasn’t been seen since the summer of 2015, but the now seven-year-old son of Scat Daddy had plenty of ability in his younger days and returns as a first-time gelding for a barn that boasts strong stats with layoff runners.  ‘Skyline won his debut, so at least he has a history of firing fresh and when last seen earned a Beyer figure more than good enough to beat this type of field. The long layoff notwithstanding, you have to toss him in at least a ticket or two.


​​RACE 2: Post 1:29 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 4-Ciao Luna; 5-Empress of Lov

Forecast: Ciao Luna has good tactical speed, earned a career top speed figure when a close fourth vs. stronger foes on grass in her last outing, and has run well in the past over the Santa Anita main track.  Talamo should have her on or near the lead throughout.  Empress of Lov returns to her claim level, and with a repeat of her race before last the Ellis-trained filly will be dangerous.  All three of her career victories have been earned of the Santa Anita main track.  Let’s try to survive and advance using just these two with slight preference on top to Ciao Luna


​​RACE 3: Post 2:02 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 1-Kentan Road; 4-Hergame; 5-Time for Ebby

Forecast: ​ This five-furlong turf dash has three European invaders, all of whom look dangerous.  The best of the newcomers could be Hergame, who broke her maiden at first asking in an abbreviated turf sprint at Chantilly in May of her 2-year-old season.  If she’s as quick as we think she is, the Powell-trained filly may never look back.  Kentan Road returns from the Bay Area and drops a level in class while getting a break in the weights with the switch to bug boy Diaz.  She finished an excellent second over this course and distance last fall and a repeat of that effort today makes her dangerous.  Time for Ebby is overdue for a win and could be a factor from off the pace with her best effort. 


​​​RACE 4: Post 2:33 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 2-El Huerfano; 6-Surfing Star

Forecast: Surfing Star ran like a short horse when a distant third in the Tiznow Stakes last month, and there’s no question he’s had his share of problems, but anything close to his best race will be good enough to win this allowance optional claimer and his recent work tab is encouraging.  He’s not a single, but we’ll put him on top.  El Huerfano will be hard to beat if ‘Star fails to fire.  The Glatt-trained gelding, a solid runner-up at this level in late March, should be close up throughout and have every chance.  Preference on top goes to Surfing Star but both should be included in rolling exotic play.


​​RACE 5: Post 3:04 PT. Grade: B+

Single: 4-Brandothebartender

Forecast: Brandothebartender is tough at any distance and exits the best race, so the veteran son of Tribal Rule is strictly the one to beat in this state-bred mile turf stakes.  The Dollase-trained gelding could use some help up front and with Tule Fog in the field the fractions should be at least normal, if not quick.  The Street Fighter is a prototype grass miler with good stalking speed and a favorable inside draw.  He’ll need to improve to win but might have it in him.  Strong preference on top goes to Brandothebartender, but both should be used in your rolling exotics.


​​RACE 6: Post 3:33 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 2-Rather Nosy; 5-True Validity

Forecast:Rather Nosy is lightly-raced and improving but must once again face True Validity, who just beat her on the square when they met in a similar starter optional claiming sprint last month.  Today’s race is shorter by a half-furlong but neither filly should be inconvenienced by today’s six-furlong trip.  Both should be included in rolling exotic with slight preference on top to True Validity.


RACE 7: Post 4:15 PT. Grade: B

Use: 4-Red King; 5-Jungle Warfare

Forecast: Red King was a clever winner over this course and distance in early February and may prove to be a timely purchase by D’Amato.  The son of English Channel retains winning rider Gryder for a barn that always does well with first-off-the-claim plays.  Jungle Warfare is winless in eight career outings on turf, though he’s certainly bred for it.  The son of Animal Kingdom got a confidence building victory at Golden Gate Fields last time out and given the project race flow of this race should draft into a comfortable second-flight early position and then have every chance form the quarter pole home.  We’ll give the edge on top to Red King but use both in our rolling exotics.


​​RACE 8: Post 4:50 PT. Grade: B

Use: 3-La Force; 6-Lemoona; 8-Paradise Woods

Forecast: Paradise Woods couldn’t cope with Secret Spice or Marley’s Freedom in the Beholder Mile-G1 in her last outing, but this group should be well within her range.  A Grade-1 winner over this track and distance in her younger days, the daughter of Union Rags projects to draft into a lovely pace-stalking or forcing trip under Smith and then exert her superiority when it matters.  La Force and Lemoona represent threats from off the pace.  The former, away since finishing eighth in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff in November, usually is in the thick of it, though she’s only 2-for-23 (with 11 seconds or thirds) during her career.  The latter looked super winning from lesser on grass last time out but has won on the main track in the past.  The Baltas-trained filly gets tested for class today.


RACE 9: Post 5:25 PT. Grade: C

Use: 2-Translucent; Dieci; 10-Golden Image

Forecast: The finale is an inscrutable maiden claiming abbreviated sprint.  Best advice is to use as many as you can afford to.  Golden Image is improving with each start and though slow on numbers must be considered a main contender in a modest affair.  Third in a similar spot last time out, the son of Eddington appears capable of winning with another forward move.  Dieci is a sneaky first-timer from a barn that has a solid record with debut runners.  The works aren’t fast, but runners from the Hofmans barn often run better than they work.  Translucent has good early speed but is suspect under pressure.  Against this group, he could get brave.  Tread lightly here.


Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis & Wagering Strategies for Saturday, April 27, 2019

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