The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players. The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play. Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go four-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.
The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Top selection indicated in bold-face.
A=Highest degree of confidence.
C=Least preferred, or pass.
X=likely winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.
Saturday, June 8, 2019
Use: 3-Super Patriot; 6-Shehastheritestuff; 7-Tammy’s Window
Forecast: Tammy’s Window may have been a bit stale in her most recent outing, so Sadler backed off her, gave her a bit of breather, and now should have her back on the beam in this restricted (non-winners in 2019) $35,000 claimer over a mile on turf for fillies and mares. This is her level, and these are her friends. Shehastheritestuff, a strong runner-up in an open $32,000 claimer over this course and distance in mid-April, appears the one to fear most. She’s winless in almost two years but a repeat of her last race puts her right there. Super Patriot, a good third in the same race Shehastheritestuff exits, represents inside speed, and in her second start off a long layoff the Spawr-trained miss could be tough to catch if not pressured early. We’ll include all three in our rolling exotics with slight preference on top to Tammy’s Window
RACE 2: Post 12:29 PT. Grade: C
Use: 1-Miss the Kat; 2-I Belong to Becky; 3-Jack’s a Diva
Forecast: This $20,000 claiming sprint restricted to 3-year-olds drew just five starters, three of which appear capable of winning, so we’ll include all three in our rolling exotics but otherwise pass the race. Jack’s Diva graduated gamely in a maiden $30,000 affair last time out and gets a huge break in the weights with the switch to bug boy Velez. This is a legitimate spot for the lightly-raced colt, so with any kind of forward move he could win right back. I Belong to Becky is a first-off-the-claim for Glatt (excellent 23% with this angle) and dropping in class from $30,000 for the money run. He’s a strong fit on speed figures and should be within range throughout and have every chance. Miss the Kat was overmatched on grass vs. first-level allowance foes but gets a considerably easier task today. His good Los Alamitos form when facing quarter horse company makes him interesting in an open affair.
RACE 3: Post 12:58 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Dukes Up; 3-Very Very Stella
Forecast: Very Very Stella is an old pro with nine lifetime wins, though he’s a career zero-for-seven over the Santa Anita main track. However, this class drop could wake him up, so let’s put the Bonde-trained gelding slightly on top while also including in our rolling exotics Dukes Up. From the red hot Glatt barn, this veteran son of Include always has preferred the Santa Anita dirt surface (four wins, three seconds, two thirds in 11 career outings) and has hit the board in each of his last three starts. In his present form he’s the one to fear most despite the slight hike in class.
RACE 4: Post 1:33 PT. Grade: B
Use: 2-Jamming Eddy; 5-No Parking Here
Forecast: State-bred maidens meet over a mile on turf, with Jamming Eddy appearing well-placed to graduate. Second with a career-top number over this course and distance in a similar spot last month, the Miller-trained son of Square Eddie lands a comfortable inside post, switches to Van Dyke, and seems the solid choice, though at 8/5 on the morning line he’ll probably not be offering much in the way of wagering value. No Parking Here probably is worth using on a ticket or two. He’s adding blinkers for the first time and should draft into a good pace-stalking position and have every chance.
RACE 5: Post 2:05 PT. Grade: B
Use: 3-A Dime for Me; 6-Heloise
Forecast: A Dime for Me beat a maiden $50,000 field with a fairly decent speed figure last time out and not much more will be needed for the Glatt-trained daughter of win right back in this restricted (nw-2) $30,000 affair that kicks off the Pick-6. Pedroza stays aboard and knows her well. Heloise puts on blinkers for the first time, has the benefit of the cozy outside draw, and goes for a barn that has a spectacular percentage with first-off-the-claim plays. She’s lacking in early speed and may have too much to do from the quarter pole home, but on pure numbers she’s a contender so we’ll toss her in on a ticket or two.
RACE 6: Post 2:35 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 2-G Q Covergirl; 4-Great Return
Forecast: G Q Covergirl appeared a tad rusty in her recent comeback but ran quite well nonetheless, finishing a strong second while more than four clear of the rest in a similar optional claimer over this course and distance. Not much better will be needed to get her back on the winning track. Great Return, away since last September following two excellent races over the Del Mar turf course at this five furlong trip, will be doing her best work late and could be dangerous if she can get some help up front. We’ll include her as a back-up, but the main push goes to G Q Covergirl.
RACE 7: Post 3:10 PT. Grade: B
Use: 1-Market Sentiment; 4-For Him
Forecast: Market Sentiment is winless in seven career starts over the Santa Anita main track but he’s a fit on numbers following a pair of solid runner-up efforts in similar company, and if he can leave cleanly from the rail in this restricted (nw-3) $16,000 claimer he could be hard to run down. The shortening to six furlongs certainly won’t hurt his chances. For Him plummets in class for D’Amato in his first start since August, so his condition is a question mark. He’s always preferred longer, as well, but based on back numbers he’s probably worth tossing in as a saver.
RACE 8: Post 4:10 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 1-Ultimate Bango; 8-Overdue
Forecast: Overdue is rapidly improving with each outing and looked terrific in a recent bullet workout over the training track to indicate he’s set for another significant forward move. The D’Amato-trained gelding, an excellent runner-up in a similar first-level allowance event at this trip over this course last month, is listed at 5/2 on the morning line and if you can get close to that price on the tote, grab it. Ultimate Bango is worth including on a ticket or two. In his second off a layoff and removing blinkers for the first time, the Heap-trained gelding lands the rail and seems likely to employ gate-to-wire tactics. This mile distance is within his range, so if he clears without pressure he could take this field a long way.
RACE 9: Post 4:50 PT. Grade: B+
Single: 6-Wicken Fen
Forecast: Wicken Fen, first off the claim for Glatt (strong stats) following a runner-up effort in a similar $30,000 maiden claimer last month, was more than three lengths clear of the rest in that race and if he produces the kind of improvement that we’re expecting the son of Twirling Candy should graduate today in a modest race for the level. Pedroza should have him on or near the lead throughout. At 5/2 on the morning line he’s a straight play and rolling exotic single.
RACE 10: Post 5:20 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 5-Formal Dude; 7-Mr Classical; 10-Dawood
Forecast: We’ll spread the finale, a maiden $30,000 main track miler that has several possibilities. Formal Dude seems as good as any; the D’Amato-trained gelding, in his second start off a layoff, chased a much tougher group on turf last month, steadily fading when it counted, but should be fitter and tougher at this level. He’s back on the main track – his best effort two runs back came on dirt – so the son of First Dude has a few things going for him that dictates his morning line favorite’s role at 5/2. Dawood is drawn farther out (in the 10-post) than we’d prefer but the Baltas-trained gelding is dropping to his lowest level ever and has numbers that put him in the hunt. He’ll be doing his best work late. Mr Classical is a 10-race maiden and certainly not one to trust, but the O’Neill-trained gelding should be a pace factor throughout and could stick around for at least a piece of it.