The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players. The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play. Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go four-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.
The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Top selection indicated in bold-face.
A=Highest degree of confidence.
C=Least preferred, or pass.
X=likely winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.
Friday, June 7, 2019
Use: 4-Laker Jet; 5-Our Romance; 7-Goodtingscominpink
Forecast: State-bred older maiden fillies and mares compete over a mile on grass in the Friday opener, with the improving Goodtingscominpink the logical top pick after a sharp runner-up effort vs. similar over this course and distance last month. The Cerin-trained filly finished nearly four lengths clear of the others, and with a similar effort today should be hard to handle. Two fillies stretching out for the first time – Our Romance and Laker Jet – warrant some consideration as well. Our Romance has the pedigree to stretch out successfully and her rising sprint speed figures indicate she’s heading in the right direction. A troubled fifth in her first try on grass last month, she also gets a substantial break in the weights with the switch to talented bug boy Velez. Laker Jet was fairly well backed in her debut in the same race Our Romance exits and was a non-threatening sixth, but the barn is solid with second-timers and blinkers are added, so improvement is possible.
RACE 2: Post 1:29 PT. Grade: B+
Forecast: This restricted (nw-2) $16,000 claimer over a mile on the main track drew just five runners, with Alfareed, in his third start off a layoff, appearing well spotted for a win. Returning to conventional dirt for the first time since breaking his maiden easily last summer at Del Mar and dropping to his lowest level ever, the Bonde-trained gelding encountered a rugged journey on grass last month in a race that earned him a career top (buried) number despite finishing sixth, beaten more than eight lengths. With the switch to Desormeaux, who will most likely employ patient tactics, the son of Orb seems capable of producing the last run. Let’s make him a straight play and rolling exotic single.
RACE 3: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: B
Use: 2-Take a Leap; 3-Twirling Apples
Forecast: Twirling Apples owns a decided edge in speed figures in this restricted (nw-3) $35,000 claiming turf miler on turf and in her first start since October for a barn that has superb stats with layoff runners the Cerin-trained mare seems the solid choice. Both of her career victories have been accomplished over the local lawn, and in a race that projects to have a modest early pace the daughter of Twirling Candy should be capable of securing an ideal early stalking or pressing position. Take a Leap is worth including as a backup or a saver; she was second in a similar affair two runs back and figures for at least a share once again.
RACE 4: Post 2:31 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 1-Baby Ice; 3-Duranga
Forecast: Baby Ice finally gets a chance to stretch out today, and if she’s ever going to handle a two-turn mile, it’ll most likely be in her first try. The daughter of First Dude was an excellent though non-threating second to razor sharp Uno Trouble Maker last month and from her good rail most she’ll probably employ gate-to-wire tactics. Duranga earned a career top number when dismantling a restricted $10,000 claiming sprint field last month but, like Baby Face, is questionable at today’s trip. Unplaced in all prior three starts over this distance, the daughter of Bellamy Road is protected in a starter’s allowance field in a sign of confidence, so in her present form, if she’s ever going to be successful around two turns, it should be in this spot. We’ll use both in our rolling exotics while preferring Baby Ice on top.
RACE 5: Post 3:03 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 2-Psycho Dar; 9-Prodigal Son
Forecast: Psycho Dar and Prodigal Son exit the same race, a first-level state-bred allowance sprint over five furlongs on turf last month, and both ran well and figure tough once again. Psycho Far was beaten just a nose despite a wide trip in that race and is drawn more comfortable inside today, so the Miyadi-trained gelding seems the logical top pick. However, Prodigal Son, beaten just a half-length, was making his first start on grass (and his just his fourth overall) and may have more upside, especially with the addition of blinkers for the first time. Additionally, he’s had rising speed figures in every outing and sports a bullet half-mile training track workout last week. With the switch to hustling rider Garcia, the son of Square Eddie should draft into a good pace-prompting trip and have every chance. We’ll use both in our rolling exotics and then press with extra tickets keying Prodigal Son on top.
RACE 6: Post 3:33 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 2-My Gal Toots; 6-Vella
Forecast: Maiden $50,000 state-bred fillies and mares sprint six furlongs in a six-runner affair that doesn’t leave us with much to work with. Vella has rising numbers, a comfortable outside draw, and enough early speed to secure an ideal pace-pressing position. With little to beat, the daughter of Treasure Beach is the top pick by default. My Gal Toots, a decent runner-up in her debut in a slowly run race, has plenty of room for improvement and could be dangerous for low profile connections. The winner likely will be one or the other, so we’ll double the race in our rolling exotics while otherwise sitting it out.
RACE 7: Post 4:03 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Ancoma; 4-Miss Indefatigable
Forecast: This is a modest maiden special weight turf dash for fillies and mares, one that’s ripe to be won by a fresh face. Ancona hasn’t been asked for much in the morning but is a decent-sized filly and a good mover so she should be plenty fit for a good effort. She’s a daughter of Gervinho and therefore bred for grass, so in a soft field let’s take a shot. Miss Indefatigable has been working steadily at San Luis Rey Downs and is another that could be dangerous for a clever outfit. We’ll try to get by using just these two, but if you feel the need to go deeper, go right ahead.
RACE 8: Post 4:33 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 4-Fran’s Empire; 5-None of Your Biz
Forecast: The nightcap is five-furlong main track dash for state-bred juveniles. There are two in the field with a previous outing, the best of which being Fair’s Empire, an okay third in a similar affair last month and likely to produce a forward move with that effort behind her. Among the newcomers, None of Your Biz brought $130,000 as a yearling and is bred for much speed on both sides of her pedigree, so she’s a major player as well. The work tab is decent enough and the Koriner barn has very good stats with debut runners, so let’s put the daughter of Fed Biz on top have a few extra tickets keying her in the exotics.