The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players. The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play. Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go four-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.
The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Top selection indicated in bold-face.
A=Highest degree of confidence.
C=Least preferred, or pass.
X=likely winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.
Saturday, May 4, 2019
Use: 4-Baby Gronk; 8-Posterize
Forecast: Baby Gronk is fresh, has strong numbers, and owns the kind of early speed that should be every effective at this abbreviated sprint distance. If he can transfer his dirt form to grass, the Spawr-trained gelding will be very tough to beat, and if you can get close to his morning line of 5/2, all the better. Posterize isn’t as fast on figures as ‘Gronk but has the benefit of a sharp recent runner-up effort vs. similar on dirt and probably is worth using on a ticket or two as a saver.
RACE 2: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: B
Use: 2-Hard Not to Love; 4-Sneaking Out
Forecast: This listed stakes for 3-year-old fillies drew just five runners. We’ll go two-deep while preferring Hard Not to Love on top. The unbeaten daughter of Hard Spun doesn’t need the lead to win, so Pereira can improvise if the race flow dictates. She has rising numbers and appears to have some real quality. Sneaking Out seeks her fourth straight score but will be stepping out of state-bred competition today. She has the proper style for this extended sprint trip and is the one to fear most.
RACE 3: Post 1:08 PT. Grade: B
Use: 2-Maxim Rate; 6-Hostess
Forecast: Maxim Rate was nosed out by Hostess in the recent Providencia S.-G3 over nine furlongs but today faces her rival at a flat mile, a distance that might be a tad more to her liking. In a race that projects to be slow early and fast late, the daughter of Exchange Rate should be comfortably placed while saving ground throughout. Hostess produced the last run to nail ‘Rate close home and should be heard from again in the final furlong. We’ll try to survive and advance using just these two while preferring Maxim Rate on top.
RACE 4: Post 1:46 PT. Grade: B
Use: 1-Implicitly; 4-Roaring Fork
Forecast: Roaring Fork disappointed at Golden Gate Fields recently but his 10-length romp over this track and distance two runs back will make him hard to beat in this $16,000 affair if he can run back to it. Gryder knows him well and stays aboard. Implicitly crushed a restricted (nw-2) $12,500 field recently while on the front end; similar gate-to-wire tactics surely will be employed today, especially from the rail. He’s worth using as a saver, but ‘Fork is a standout on pure numbers off his best race.
RACE 5: Post 2:18 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 6-Fashion Island; 8-Confidently; 11-Miss Bigly
Forecast: This is a fairly competitive maiden special weight turf miler for 3-year-old fillies and requires a spread in rolling exotic play. Miss Bigly, a decent fourth in the Surfer Girl stakes last fall, makes her 3-year-old bow for the Desormeaux brothers and projects to be comfortably placed as a pace-stalker or presser. A bullet six furlong workout last month gives every indication that she’s dead fit and ready fire, and she’s very likely to be a better type now after being given the winter off to grow up. Her poor draw does give us a bit of concern, though. Confidently stretches out for the first time and should appreciate today’s two-turn distance. The daughter of War Front made a favorable impression in her local debut when closing with interest to be third, beaten less than a length, and with another forward move today the Proctor-trained filly could tag the speed. Fashion Leader switches to Bejarano, shortens to a mile, and may be better than shown. At 6-1 on the morning line she’s worth including on a ticket or two.
RACE 6: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: B
Use: 3-Royal Trump; 6-Make It a Triple
Forecast: Make It a Triple has much going for him in this starter’s allowance extended sprint. Drawn comfortably outside; the son of Misremembered has been first or second in six of 12 starts over the local main track and seems likely to enjoy a soft, pace-stalking trip and have every chance from the quarter pole home. His speed figures have risen in each of his last three starts, and with another forward move today he should be along in time. Royal Trump won a state-bred first-level allowance sprint recently while earning a figure that makes him competitive in this league. These are the two we’ll be using in our rolling exotic play while pressing a bit with extra tickets keying Make It a Triple.
RACE 7: Post 4:00 PT. Grade: B
Forecast: Kidmon ran considerably below his best form when a non-threatening third vs. tougher last month, so this drop to the restricted (nw-2) $12,500 level is warranted. The Lemon Drop Kid gelding has several prior races that are more than good enough to win, so anything close to his best race beats this modest field. Talamo should have him doing his best work late. Let’s make him a straight play and rolling exotic single at or near his morning line of 5/2.
RACE 8: Post 4:55 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 4-Coil Me Home; 5-Flagstaff
Forecast: Flagstaff has been away since last summer at Del Mar but has been training like he’s fit and ready for Sadler and looks like an extremely live item in this first-level allowance extended sprint. The son of Speightstown ran very well in two starts over the Santa Anita main track last year while earning speed figures that are better than par for this level. Coil Me Home adds blinkers for the first time and might display a bit more tactical speed than he’s been showing of late. Today’s extra half-furlong should be to his benefit, so with a little help up front the Baltas-trained gelding will be dangerous in the final stages. We’ll prefer Flagstaff on top but include both in rolling exotic play.
RACE 9: Post 5:25 PT. Grade: B
Use: 3-Ya Gotta Wanna; 7-Majestic Eagle
Forecast: Ya Gotta Wanna has been overmatched lately – three of his last four starts have come in graded stakes races – but in this allowance optional claiming event the veteran gelding may have found his friends. A three-time winner over the Santa Anita turf course, the D’Amato-trained son of Proud Citizen shortens to his best trip (career record 3-for-4 at a mile) and looks capable of producing the last run. Majestic Eagle is re-equipped with blinkers while stretching out again and should draft into a comfortable pace-stalking position. First or second in six of 14 career starts, the son of Medaglia d’Oro returns off a three month freshening and sports a steady recent work tab that should have him fit and ready.
RACE 10: Post 5:55 PT. Grade: B+
Forecast: Scarlet had one run last summer at Del Mar, and after displaying some early speed wound up a distant fourth in a powerful race won by American Pharoah’s half-sister Chasing Yesterday. She returns for Mandella training like a much better type, and in a what appears to be just an average race for maiden 3-year-old fillies the daughter of Uncle Mo should be ready to show her best stuff. At 7/2 on the morning line, she’s a strong straight play and rolling exotic single.
RACE 11: Post 6:25 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 2-Beyond Pleasure; 4-Lucky Stepper; 10-Sapori Girl
Forecast: The finale is a bit of scramble; it’s a maiden $50,000 claimer for older fillies and mares over a mile on grass. We’ll use three, but if you can afford to go deeper, go right ahead. Sapori Girl is drawn a bit farther out than we’d prefer, but the lightly-raced daughter of Mizzen Mast is a strong fit on speed figures, most recently earning a career top mark when third in a similar affair last month. With another forward move, the Yakteen-trained filly make be able to tag the speed. Lucky Stepper displayed improvement in her second career start, a solid third place effort over this course and distance last month, and if she step forward again, she’ll be right there. Beyond Pleasure already has had eight chances but she’s drawn well, has tactical speed, and should be able to at least get a piece of it.