Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis & Wagering Strategies for Friday, March 1, 2019

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go four-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST).  For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.

SANTA ANITA

Friday, March 1, 2019

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RACE 1: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: C+

Use: 1-Artie B Good; 7-Quick Finish; 9-Fast Cotton

Forecast: The Friday opener is a grass grab bag down the Hillside course for restricted (nw-3) $35,000 claimers.  We’ll use three, but best advice is to spread as deeply as you can afford to.  Quick Finish may be as good as any at 6-1 on the morning line.  The Blacker-trained gelding returns to turf, removes blinkers, and is reunited with “win rider” Van Dyke.  With a patient ride, the son of Vronsky may be capable of producing the last run.  Fast Cotton tries grass for the first time, and if he can replicate his best dirt form on the lawn he’ll have a strong look.  Artie B Good drops to his lowest level ever in his second-off-the-claim for Marquez, and with some help up front could be heard from late.

 

​​RACE 2: Post 1:33 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 1-Exuberance; 2-Leveler

Forecast: This entry-level main track mile affair for fillies and mares drew just five starters; we’ll try to survive and advance in rolling exotic play using just two.  Leveler is lightly-raced with room to improve for D’Amato, and in her second off a layoff the daughter of Even the Score should produce enough of a forward move to be a major player.  She probably didn’t get much out of her sprint comeback over a sloppy track but a nice five-furlong drill since that race should have her tight enough.  Exuberance is re-equipped with blinkers and seems primed for her best effort.  Her only career win came over this track and distance, and on paper she looks like the best of the closers.

 

​​RACE 3: Post 2:08 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 2-Gotta Be Lucky; 3-Ride Out the Storm

Forecast: ​It looks like Gaines holds the keys to this race with the two main contenders.  Gotta Be Lucky shows up in a seller for the first time and should greatly appreciate the softer company.  On pure numbers she’ll be tough to beat.  Stable mate Ride Out the Storm was a decent third at this level and at this distance in her debut over a sloppy track; with any kind of forward move she’ll be right there.  We’ll try to get by using just these two.

 

​​​RACE 4: Post 2:43 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 5-Spokane Eagle; 9-Denman’s Call

Forecast: Spokane Eagle turned in an uncharacteristically poor performance earlier this month when facing an infinitely tougher field; if he has at least one good one left the Miller-trained gelding should be able to bounce back and beat this field.  “Win rider” Van Dyke returns.  Denman’s Call seeks his third straight and projects to draft into a comfortable pace-prompting trip outside.  He’s a past-classer but now seems to have found a home at the $32,000 level.  We’ll give the edge on top to ‘Eagle but use both in our rolling exotics.

 

​​RACE 5: Post 3:15 PT. Grade: B+

Use: 3-Red Envelope; 6-Rinse and Repeat; 8-Lil Milo

Forecast: Red Envelope has run well over this course in the past and with patient handling in a field with plenty of speed the son of Tribal Rule might be able to produce the last run at a nice price (he’s 8-1 on the morning line).  Rinse and Repeat pulverized a softer field with a powerful late kick and returns on relatively short rest while being protected by new trainer Knapp.  Rosario stays aboard.  Lil Milo won over this course and distance two runs back and then couldn’t quite get the mile when worn down late against similar state-bred first-level allowance competition.  He switches to Prat and should be on or near the lead throughout.  We’ll prefer Red Envelope on top but include both in our rolling exotics.

 

​​RACE 6: Post 3:50 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 4-Lucky Lula; 6-Springtime Dance; 8-Gia Lula

Forecast:Springtime Dance earned a big number when beating maiden $5,000 foes at Golden Gate Fields last month and might be capable of repeating against this modest band of restricted $12,500 fillies and mares.  Morey would have sent her here unless he thought she could fit.  We think she can.  Gia Lula is comfortably drawn outside and is better than her last troubled race shows.  Her maiden $30,000 claiming win two races back charts very well in this league.  Lucky Lula may not have cared for the sloppy track when unplaced vs. similar in her comeback but on fast ground today could regain her best form.  At 8-1 on the morning line she’s worth including somewhere.

 

RACE 7: Post 4:22 PT. Grade: B+

Single: 3-Foster Boi

Forecast: Foster Boi has worked like a very nice type for D’Amato – he made our “Prime and Ready” list a few weeks back - and as a son of Boisterous should be at home on turf.  With Prat aboard in a somewhat shallow field, he looks capable of winning at first asking and will offer value at his morning line of 5/2 if you can get it.  We’ll make him a straight play and rolling exotic single.

 

​​RACE 8: Post 4:53 PT. Grade: X

Use: 1-Nolo Contesto; 4-Roadster; 6-Dessman

Forecast: As this is penned there’s a possibility that one or more of the contenders listed above will scratch.  Roadster seems the most likely to run; he’s trained very well for his comeback for Baffert after flashing huge potential last summer at Del Mar.  He’s been away due to throat surgery but seems more than fit enough to handle the mile trip.  Dessman was best when beaten in the San Vicente Stakes – he moved too soon and then pulled himself up when making the lead in mid-stretch – and will be hard to beat if he actually starts.  Nolo Contesto graduated like a nice prospect for Sadler and has trained well since.  If he goes, you have to use him.

 

RACE 9: Post 5:24 PT. Grade: B+

Single: 6-Contagion

Forecast: We loved the way Contagion broke his maiden recently – he won with plenty left while earning a good figure – and we see no reason why the son of Fed Biz can’t duplicate that type of performance on the raise while stretching out and switching to turf.  O’Neill claimed him back – and very positive sign – and protects him, so at 10-1 on the morning line he’s a strong straight play and rolling exotic single or us.

 

 

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Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis & Wagering Strategies for Friday, March 1, 2019

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