Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies for Friday, April 13, 2018

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST).  For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.

SANTA ANITA

Friday, April 13, 2018

​RACE 1: Post 12:00 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 2-Southern Freedom; 5-Roman Tizzy

Forecast: Roman Tizzy has won five of his eight career races over the Santa Anita main track and has recent speed figures that are better than par for this level.  He’s a bit long in the tooth, but the Cerin-trained gelding doesn’t have a whole lot to beat in this bottom-rung affair and seems the solid top pick.  Southern Freedom has been primarily a turf/synthetic specialist throughout his career but he does have one dirt win on his resume and has plenty of back numbers that make him a strong fit.  The Jacobson-trained horse projects to be a strong pace factor throughout.  Both should be included in rolling exotic play with preference on top to Roman Tizzy.

 

​​RACE 2: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 1-Ministertomyheart; 7-Dare to Enter

Forecast:  Dare to Enter has been knocking on the door and seems ready to finally earn his diploma.  Second in his last pair over this track and distance, the Pender-trained sophomore switches to Desormeaux and should be capable of producing the last run in a modest race for maiden-claiming miler.  Ministertomyheart, a closing third in the same race Dare to Enter exits, should enjoy an ideal ground-saving trip and probably has a bit of improvement in him.  Both should be included in rolling exotic play.

 

​​RACE 3: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B

Use: 1-Bad and Bougie; 2-Paprika; 8-And Counting

Forecast:  Maiden state-bred fillies and mares sprint down the Hillside Course in a race that probably requires a spread in rolling exotic play.  Paprika is the best of the known element, having finished third in a fairly decent debut vs. maiden $50,000 foes on the main track last month.  On pedigree she should improve on grass, so let’s put her on top while also including a pair of first-timers.  Bad and Bougie has trained well enough to be considered a contender for a barn that has solid stats with newcomers, while And Counting certainly is bred for the lawn (Acclamation), gets a comfortable draw, and has workouts that hint of some ability.

 

​​​RACE 4: Post: 1:30 PT. Grade: B

Use:  1-Time for Cioppino; 6-Elevated Knight

Forecast: This $25,000 claimer for 3-year-olds appears to have two main players.  Elevated Knight drops for the money run and switches to Pereira, who rides a lot of live horses for the D’Amato barn.  His only outing two-turn race resulted in a maiden claiming win (on turf) and with numbers headed in the right direction the son of Bellamy Road seems primed for another forward move.  Time for Cioppino stretches out for the first time, lands the favorable rail, and could find himself in a perfect stalking spot.  If he’s ever going to route successfully, it’ll be in his first try.  Both should be used in rolling exotic play; we’ll have few extra tickets keying Elevated Knight on top.

 

​​RACE 5: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 2-Zero Zee; 7-Cynthiana

Forecast:  Cynthiana seems well-placed for a big effort in this $40,000 restricted (nw-2) claimer for fillies and mares, but she’s zero-for-seven lifetime over this course and distance, so she’s hardly one to trust.  Look for her to be doing her best work in the final furlong.  Zero Zee, a runner-up as the favorite under identical conditions last month, probably won’t have to improve much to win and is another that looks dangerous from off the pace.  Let’s try to get by using just these two with slight preference on top to Cynthiana.

 

​​​​RACE 6: Post 2:30 PT. Grade: C+

Use: 6-Blame the Weather; 9-Dee Way to Go

Forecast:  Blame the Weather has plenty of zip, but not a whole lot of stick.  At this five furlong trip vs. bottom-rung maiden claiming fillies and mares, she might be able to hang on.  Dee Way to Go has hit the board in her last pair and against this group that alone makes her a contender.  We’ll include both in our rolling exotics.

 

​​​RACE 7: Post 3:00 PT.  Grade: B-

Use: 1-Cinnamon Twist; 7-Cow Dog

Forecast: There are two main contenders in this $16,000 claiming sprint for sophomore fillies.  Cow Dog is realistically spotted after graduating in a soft maiden claimer two weeks ago.  She should have ever chance while on or near the pace from her good outside draw.  Cinnamon Twist drops to her lowest level and will be a late threat if she can avoid trouble from her rail post position.

 

​​​​​RACE 8: Post 3:30 PT.  Grade: B-

Use: 4-Wonderful Lie; 6-All of a Sudden; 8-Promnesia

Forecast:  We’ll spread the finale, another turf sprint, this one for entry-level allowance fillies and mares.  Promnesia is winless in three starts over this course and distance but just missed in a photo vs. similar in her most recent outing and should run at least as well today following a recent bullet workout at Los Alamitos.  All of a Sudden makes her first start since last October for new trainer D’Amato and her recent drills indicate fitness.  She likes to settle and produce a run and should be heard from in the final furlong.  Wonderful Lie returns to turf and shortens up in trip in her first start since being claimed for $20,000 by Hanson last month.  She has a prior win over this course and is another that looks dangerous from off the pace.

 

 

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies for Friday, April 13, 2018

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