Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies for Friday, April 20, 2018

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST).  For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.


Friday, April 20, 2018

RACE 1: Post 12:00 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 4-Gosilently; 8-Winning Element

Forecast:  Gosilently finally broke his maiden in his 13th career start and could come right back despite the raise to the first-level allowance ranks.  The Falcone-trained gelding may be better suited for this shorter trip, has speed figures that fit, and projects to be comfortable placed setting or pressing a moderate pace.  Winning Element, first off the claim for O’Neill and making his first start as a gelding, retains Prat, sports a healthy recent work tab, and should fire a big shot fresh.  He has back numbers that make him a strong threat and will likely get the patient ride he prefers.


​​RACE 2: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: C

Use: 4-Albeit; 5-Quiet No More

Forecast:  Albeit is just 1-for-22 lifetime and certainly not one to trust, but the daughter of Mineshaft rates top billing by default in this woefully weak restricted (Nw-2) $12,500 main track claiming miler.  She was beaten a head under similar conditions last time out and wins if she can turn in two alike.  Quiet No More, fifth in the same race Albeit exits, makes a favorable rider switch and has back numbers that make her a threat.


​​RACE 3: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: C+

Use: 4-Stella Sweeper; 5-Misty Slew; 9-Whacked

Forecast:  Whacked looks intriguing in this bottom-rung maiden claiming mile affair for fillies and mares.  With just two prior starts, the daughter of Tizbud may have more room to improve than most of the other thoroughly-exposed entrants in this field and has the two-sprints-and-a-stretch-out pattern that we like so much.  She’s also adding blinkers for the first time and gets a substantial break in the weights with the switch to bug boy Espinoza.  Stella Sweeper also is stretching out for the first time following a couple of sprint preps, and after closing ground in both of those outings the son of Northern Afleet should appreciate the added ground.  Misty Slew is a 10-race maiden but earned a career top speed figure in her most recent outing, and with another forward move she could be hard to deny.  Let’s prefer Whacked on top but include all three in our rolling exotics.


​​​RACE 4: Post: 1:30 PT. Grade: B+

Use:  2-Yuvetsi; 6-Marley’s Freedom

Forecast: After being buried on the rail in her last two starts, Marley’s Freedom lands the cozy outside post while returning to the second-level allowance ranks and should be set for a major effort.  She’ll have no excuses today.  Yuvetsi is improving with each start for Sadler and just missed in a photo under similar conditions last month.  The lightly-raced daughter of Bodemeister is a “must use,” though we’ll prefer Marley’s Freedom on top.


​​RACE 5: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: B

Use: 1-Sidepocket Action; 3-Sir Eddie; 6-Dreamer’s Reality

Forecast:  State-bred maidens sprint down the hill in the fifth race, a contentious affair requiring a spread in rolling exotic play.  Sidepocket Action must overcome the rail, but the son of Acclamation, a promising second in his debut, seems very likely to move forward with that effort behind him coupled with the switch to grass.  Sir Eddie, fourth in his debut in the same race ‘Action exits, also should improve with the surface switch.  He has the always-dangerous blinkers-off angle and retains Prat.  Dreamer’s Reality, a closing third in a productive race over this course and distance in his debut on New Year’s Day, makes his first start since for Puype and a similar effort today could easily be good enough.


​​​​RACE 6: Post 2:30 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 5-American All Star; 7-Trojan Time

Forecast:  American All Star flashed a bit of promise in his debut when a solid third in straight maiden company but then was disappointing when stretched out vs. a tough group in his next outing.  He’s back at what probably is his preferred trip today but is being thrown away for $30,000, not exactly a sign of confidence.  Baze stays aboard for Callaghan and should have this son of Concord Point rolling late.  Trojan Time moves to the Truman barn, earned a career top number when a close fourth vs. similar earlier this month, and retains Elliott.  We’ll try to get past this race using just these two.


​​​RACE 7: Post 3:00 PT.  Grade: C+

Use:  4-Anita G.; 5-Where’s the D

Forecast:  Anita G. may be cheap but she always tries and she may find a way to win again despite being wheeled back in six days.  The Miyadi-trained mare has run well at this mile trip in the past and should be on or near the lead throughout.  Where’s the D drops to the bottom, and the last time she competed for this claiming price (last June) she won by almost six lengths.  First or second in five of eight starts over the Santa Anita main track, the daughter of Blame has low profile connections but must be respected in her present form.


​​​​​RACE 8: Post 3:30 PT.  Grade: B+

Use: 3-Dreams of Valor; 4-R Cha Cha; 6-Dr. Troutman

Forecast: R Cha Cha moves up to the $40,000 claiming level after earning a career top number in his first start since joining the Baltas barn last month and this raise in class is an obvious sign of confidence for the son of Archarcharch.  His only prior grass outing was strong, so another forward move is likely.  Dreams of Valor is re-equipped with blinkers after exiting tougher first-level allowance races and this shortening in trip is significant since his only prior victory came sprinting on turf.  Dr. Troutman has disappointed of late but shows up in a seller for the first time and should greatly appreciate the class relief.  Let’s use all three in our rolling exotics and then press with extra tickets keying R Cha Cha on top.


RACE 9: Post 4:00 PT.  Grade: C+

Use: 2-Alternate Rhythm; 3-North County Guy; 4-Bonaventure

Forecast: Alternate Rhythm and North County Guy both are dropping from $50,000 to $30,000 in their first starts since being claimed, not a good pattern for either one.  Both are capable of winning at this level based on speed figures but neither can be considered trustworthy.  So, let’s take a close look at Bonaventure, a second-time starter from the Greenman stable.  The son of Wilburn finished willingly when third in his debut vs. similar last month, gets off the rail, and seems likely to produce a significant forward move (and not much will be needed if the two class droppers fail to fire).

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies for Friday, April 20, 2018

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