Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis for Sunday, April 15, 2018

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST).  For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.

SANTA ANITA

Sunday, April 15, 2018

RACE 1: Post 11:30 PT. Grade: C+

Use: 1-Six Point Rack; 4-Shifty Dancer; 5-Going for the Win

Forecast:  Shifty Dancer is unbeaten in two starts – one sprinting on dirt, the other routing on grass – and seems primed for another top effort in this first-level state-bred allowance event.  The Palma-trained colt is moving up from starter allowance company but has speed figures that fit and he could wind up the controlling speed again in a field without too much zip.  Six Point Rack likely will enjoy an ideal ground-saving, pace-stalking trip; he’s been sparingly raced of late but off his best try is a strong threat.  Going for the Win exits the moderate claiming ranks but can turn it on late and on pure numbers rates a  look.  At the very least use him as a saver or a back-up.

 

​​RACE 2: Post 12:00 PT. Grade: X

Single: McKale

Forecast: McKale earned a stakes-quality speed figure in his impressive winning debut and likely will be odds-on to score right back in this entry-level allowance sprint restricted to 3-year-olds.  In a race that we’ll otherwise pass, we’ll use him as a rolling exotic single.

 

​​RACE 3: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: X

Single: 2-Downtowner

Forecast:  Here’s another too-short-to-play standout from the Baffert barn.  Downtowner earned a very strong speed figure when second under these conditions last month and really won’t have to improve at all to beat this field.  In fact, that was his first start in more than a year, so we assume the son of Majestic Warrior will produce a forward move.  He’s another no-value rolling exotic single.

 

​​​RACE 4: Post: 1:00 PT. Grade: C

Use:  3-Navajo Dreamer; 4-Ladybug; 6-Broome; 7-Mongolian Window

Forecast: This is another race we’ll sit out.  Half of the eight entrants have a right to win, so we’ll go four-deep in our rolling exotics.  Mongolian Window has the route-to-sprint angle that is so effective over this course and distance and should step forward following a $75,000 claim by Sadler in February.  She sports a solid recent work tab and switches to Baze.  Ladybug also is a first-off-the-claim for Sadler and switches to Desormeaux.  She’s always been fairly well regarded and could improve a bunch for this barn.  Navajo Dreamer chased tougher last fall before being stopped on; she returns in a realistic spot for Baltas, lands Prat, and appears extremely well-meant.  Broome just missed in a photo under identical conditions last month and probably won’t need too much more to graduate.

 

​​RACE 5: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: B

Single: 6-Twisted Rosie

Forecast:  Twisted Rosie should have every chance to regain her winning form from this cozy outside draw.  She’s facing an easier group today with this drop into the mid-level claiming ranks and is fast enough on speed figures to beat this field from an ideal pace-stalking position.  At 5/2 on the morning line she’s a straight play and rolling exotic single.

 

​​​​RACE 6: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 3-Vasilika; 4-Achira

Forecast:  Vasilika is thoroughly genuine and consistent and seems ready for another major effort.  The daughter of Skipshot just won over this course and distance under Prat while earning a number that makes her tough right back.  Achira is also worth using; the lightly-raced daughter of English Channel just missed in a photo under identical conditions last month while finishing lapped on Vasilika.  These two are tough to separate so we’ll use both in our rolling exotics.

 

​​​RACE 7: Post 2:30 PT.  Grade: C+

Use: 2-Makenna’s Song; 5-Get Yourself Home; So Euro

Forecast:  We’ll spread the seventh race, a maiden claiming abbreviated sprint for state-bred fillies and mares.  Makenna’s Song is a first-timer from the Mullins barn with a useful series of workouts and lands Prat.  Let’s go with the fresh face.  So Euro was nosed out in her debut, and while it wasn’t much of a heat the daughter of Good Journey is likely to produce a forward move.  Her Machowsky-trained stable mate, Get Yourself Home, shortens up a furlong and should stick better under these conditions.  She’s worth including on a ticket or two.

 

​​​​​RACE 8: Post 3:30 PT.  Grade: B-

Use: 5-Easter Morn; 10-Rocket Fuel; 11-Swiss Minister

Forecast: This highly-competitive state-bred allowance sprint has several possibilities, so we’ll spread and hope to get by using three.  Swiss Minister is comfortably placed outside and with a repeat of his most recent outing the son of Lucky Pulpit should be in the battle throughout.  He knows where the wire is and usually runs well for Pena.  Easter Morn flopped as the favorite in the same race Swiss Minister exits but if he runs back to his highly-rated maiden score two runs back he’ll be the one to beat.  He’s also reunited with Prat, his “win” rider.  Rocket Fuel, first or second in five of eight starts over the Santa Anita main track, has dangerous early speed and could get brave if he can shake loose early.  Of three, Easter Morn may have the most upside, so we’ll give him a very slight edge on top.

 

RACE 9: Post 4:00 PT.  Grade: B-

Use: 2-Starting Bloc; 7-Mo Over; 8-Amazon Cry

Forecast:  Starting Bloc makes his first start since November and is realistically spotted in this maiden $50,000 claimer.  The barn is solid with layoff runners and this son of More Than Ready has trained well enough to be fit.  Mo Over drops from maiden $100,000 to maiden $50,000 after a strong effort over this course in early January.  The class drop and the layoff are a concern, but we’ll include him, nonetheless.  Amazon Cry, freshened since the fall and returning for a barn that does well with comebackers, is a fit on speed figures and should have every chance from a stalking position.  Let’s use all three in our rolling exotics and then have an extra ticket or two keying Starting Bloc on top.

 

 

 

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis for Sunday, April 15, 2018

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