Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies for Friday, Feb. 9, 2018

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST).  For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.

SANTA ANITA

Friday, February 9, 2018

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RACE 1: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B+

Single: 5-Frankincense

Forecast: Frankincense was beaten two lengths without being knocked about when facing essentially this same group in his debut last month.  We’re expecting a significant forward move from the son of Frankel after to two subsequent sharp workouts, including a bullet move on dirt on Jan. 29.  The Mandella-trained colt retains Smith and appears capable of improving enough to pull off a mild surprise as a straight play and rolling exotic single.

 

​​RACE 2: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: B

Single: 3-Pasadena Princess

Forecast: Pasadena Princess was beaten as the favorite in her debut last summer at Del Mar and was stopped on, but deserves another chance in her first outing since then while removing blinkers, retaining Bejarano, and dropping slightly in class.  Her workout pattern, while not flashy, should have the daughter of Tale of Ekati fit and ready, and with little to beat in this maiden claiming extended sprint the Baltas-trained filly will have no excuses.  Let’s make her a straight play and rolling exotic single.

 

​RACE 3: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: C+

Use: 1-Southern Treasure; 5-Kiss My Lulu

Forecast:  ​Bottom-rung claiming fillies and mares meet over the abbreviated sprint trip of five and one-half furlongs.  Southern Treasure won at this level two runs back and not much more will be needed to beat this field.  She has enough early speed to overcome her rail draw and with nine career victories from just 22 career starts the daughter of Southern Image knows where the wire is.  Kiss My Lulu, from the red hot Morey barn, continues to plummet in class and clearly has big problems, but she’s more than good enough to beat his group if she has one decent effort left.  In a chaotic, inscrutable affair, our best advice is to use as many as you can afford to.

 

​​​RACE 4: Post: 2:30 PT. Grade: C+

Use:  3-Miz Tianjin; 7-Veiled Heat

Forecast:  Miz Tianjin drops to the bottom maiden claiming level and may have found her friends in this seven furlong affair for older fillies and mares.  The Eric Kruljac-trained daughter of Mizzen Mast turns back from a series of route races (mostly on turf) and appears to have the profile to be effective at this distance and at this level.  Veiled Heat adds blinkers for the first time in her 10-race career, so improvement is possible.  She has numbers that make her competitive and seems to be moving forward for low profile connections.  Let’s try to survive and advance using just these two, but if you feel the need to toss in a few more, go right ahead.

 

​​RACE 5: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 1-Saint Dermot; 5-Southern Freedom

Forecast: The $16,000 middle distance claimer drew just five runners, so there’s not really too much we can do with it.  Saint Dermot is racing in good form with solid recent speed figures, and all four of his career wins have come over the Santa Anita main track.  In a shallow race for the level, he should be hard to beat.  Ex-classer Southern Freedom drops to his lowest level ever and should have every chance to return to winning form.  Though he’s primarily been a grass or synthetic specialist, the veteran son of Pure Prize has won on dirt in the past.  Both should be included in rolling exotic play.

 

​​​​RACE 6: Post 3:30 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 1-Easter Morn; 3-Wild Lando; 9-Gutsy Effort

Forecast: This straight maiden state-bred extended sprint came up fairly competitive.  On pure numbers Gutsy Effort seems the logical top pick under the assumption that he returns as well as he left more than a year ago.  Drawn comfortably outside, the Puype-trained gelding sports an okay work tab – not great – but hails from a stable that has superb recent stats with layoff runners.  Easter Morn, a willing second in his first outing in 22 months, and Wild Lando, who was in a photo with ‘Morn in that same mid-January race behind Quick Finish, both have the benefit of a recent outing and should be capable of better today.  Let’s use all three in our rolling exotics.

 

​​​RACE 7: Post 4:00 PT.  Grade: B-

Use: 4-Cosa Nostra; 8-Studly Perfection

Forecast: Cosa Nostra has improving form and drops a level on the maiden claiming scale, so we’re expecting another forward move by the Irish-bred colt.  This turf miler didn’t come up especially strong, so let’s go with the Carava-trained 3-year-old on top while also including in our rolling exotics Studly Perfection, second in an off-the-turfer vs. slightly softer rivals here last month.  The Baltas-trained gelding retains Bejarano and looks to be the most dangerous of the pace-types.

 

​​​​​RACE 8: Post 4:30 PT.  Grade: B-

Use: 2-Show It N Moe It; 4-Ahimsa; 6-Emboldened; 7-Ms Supree

Forecast:  The featured eighth race highlights a good group of first-level allowance 3-year-old fillies at six and one-half furlongs on the main track.  Several in here have a legitimate look, so we’ll spread the race while preferring the seasoned Show It N Moe It on top.  The three-time winning California-bred daughter of Grace Upon Grace is fresh from a facile score over optional $50,000 foes here last month when earning a career top speed figure. Not much more will be needed today.  Ahimsa earned a big figure when graduating at first asking for the Eurton barn at Los Alamitos in December and is bred to improve with experience and distance.  She’s a nice prospect and retains Smith.  Emboldened and Ms Supree both won their debuts in sharp fashion with similar speed figures and both have every right to build on that initial favorable impression.  It’s a spread race in rolling exotic play for us with a few extra tickets keying Show It N Moe It on top.

 

 ​RACE 9: Post 5:00 PT.  Grade: B-

Use: 4-Road Test; 6-Mizzen Glory; 9-Subic Bay

Forecast: Road Test wasted a race last week when shortening to seven furlongs and switching to dirt, but she’s under much more favorable conditions today and with a repeat of her race before last looks good enough to beat this field.  We’re hoping that she can handle the short rest.  Mizzen Glory shows up in a restricted (nw-2) claimer for the first time and is likely to improve, though her winless-in-six-starts record over the Santa Anita turf course is a bit disconcerting.  Subic Bay is worth including in your rolling exotics despite dropping from a maiden claiming win for $40,000 to this $25,000 level in her first-off-the-claim for Jacobson.  On numbers she’s a fit, but this barn hasn’t done much since the beginning of the meeting, so there are mixed signals.

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies for Friday, Feb. 9, 2018

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