Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis & Wagering Strategies for Friday, Jan. 11, 2019

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST).  For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.


Friday, January 11, 2019

RACE 1: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: C

Use: 1-Big Base; 4-Whata Flirt; 8-Gia Lula

Forecast: The Friday program begins with a difficult maiden-claiming $30,000 sprint for older fillies and mares.  We’ll go three-deep but otherwise pass the race.  When last seen in mid-November at Del Mar, Big Base was nosed out in maiden $20,000 while earning a speed figure that probably will be good enough to beat this field.  She’s stuck on the rail and lacks tactical speed, but she picks up Rosario and could produce the last run with good racing luck.  Gia Lula lands the cozy outside post and should have every chance with a pace-stalking trip.  She’s a 12-race maiden and clearly not one to trust, but at least she’s hit the board seven times.  Whata Flirt has some speed but is always suspect under pressure in the final stages.  She’ll take them as far as she can.


​​RACE 2: Post 1:02 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 2-Copper Cowgirl; 5-Sea Glass

Forecast: Copper Cowgirl stretches out again in this soft, restricted (nw-2) $12,500 claiming miler for fillies and mares and rates a slight edge on top off her best effort.  Her only win came two-turning and from where she’s drawn the daughter of Southern Image should be on or near the lead throughout.  Sea Glass is worth including as well; she’ll be trying two-turns for the first time and based on her sprint form she might be capable of settling off the pace then producing the last run.  We’ll try to get by using just these two in our rolling exotics, but feel free to spread if you find the need.


​​RACE 3: Post 1:32 PT. Grade: X

Single: 2-Qahira

Forecast:Qahira won at first asking with a huge number and yesterday the filly she beat came back to break her maiden easily.  The daughter of Cairo Prince owns a significant edge over her rivals in the speed figure department and has a pedigree that suggests she’ll do just as well if not better around two turns.  Let’s make her a very short price rolling exotic single but otherwise pass the race.


​​​RACE 4: Post 2:02 PT. Grade: B+

Use: 3-Confidentially; 5-Sutro; 6-Decorating

Forecast: Let’s go for a little bit of a price in the fourth race, a nine-furlong maiden turf affair for older fillies and mares.  Confidentially should improve on grass (Tapit) and stretches out to a distance she should like.  Rosario stays aboard, blinkers come off, and the Shirreffs-trained filly seems capable of improving enough to be competitive.  At 6-1 on the morning line she’s worth a play in the straight pool.  We’ll also include in our rolling exotics the logical contenders, Sutro and Decorating, two-three finishers in a similar spot in late November at Del Mar.  Both have room for further improvement, and both should appreciate today’s trip.


​​RACE 5: Post 2:32 PT. Grade: B

Single: 2-Conqueror

Forecast: We’ll take a stand in this main track miler for $20,000 claimers by singling Conqueror, not so much because he’s any kind of standout but simply because we have negatives on every other entrant.  Conqueror is a first-off-the-claim for Miller (a powerful 27% with this angle) and has never finished off the board in six career starts over the Santa Anita main track, winning twice.  A case can be made that he’s a tad better sprinting than routing but against this group he should be able to handle the trip.  The switch to Van Dyke is another positive factor.  Let’s make him a straight play and rolling exotic single at or around his morning line of 5/2.


​​RACE 6: Post 3:02 PT. Grade: B

Use: 5-Asano; 7-Platinum Nights

Forecast: ​ Asano shows up in a high-priced maiden claimer for the first time and turns back from a pair of route tries vs. considerably tougher foes.  He looks like the quickest of the quick and if not policed early could easily roll all the way to the wire.  Platinum Night isn’t particularly fast on speed figures but he’s steadily improving with each start and should have every chance to produce another forward move with a pace-stalking trip outside.  Runner-up in a similar spot in late November at Del Mar, the son of Broken Vow was more than three lengths clear of the others in that race and not much more may be needed today.  Both should be included in rolling exotic play with a preference on top to Asano.


RACE 7: Post 3:32 PT. Grade: B+

Use: 2-Haydens Havoc; 9-Vantastic

Forecast: Vantastic broke his maiden over this course and distance in sharp style during the fall meeting and then finished third after cutting out the fractions in the Cecil B. DeMille Stakes over a mile at Del Mar.  Back sprinting today, dropping into a first-level allowance event, and landing the preferred outside post position, the Eurton-trained colt has much in his favor while switching to Prat.  Haydens Havoc broke his maiden sprinting on turf at Del Mar in clever style in what we thought was a fairly decent race for the level.  He certainly has a reason to improve with experience and may be quick enough to make the running in a field without a whole lot of early zip.  We’ll use both in our rolling exotics while preferring Vantastic on top.


​​RACE 8: Post 4:02 PT. Grade: X

Single: 2-Mo See Cal

Forecast: Mo See Cal is listed at 6/5 on the morning line and could easily go lower in this second-level allowance main track miler for fillies and mares.  She’s a neck and half-length shy of winning five straight, she’s fast on numbers, and she’s versatile enough to be effective on the lead or from the second flight.  Freshened since mid-November and sporting a very healthy worth pattern at San Luis Rey Downs, the daughter of Uncle Mo should be hard to beat.  She’ll be too short to play in the straight pool but seems a logical, short-priced rolling exotic single.


​​RACE 9: Post 4:32 PT. Grade: B+

Use: 5-Lucky Stepper; 6-Scarlet Heat

Forecast: ​Scarlet Heat finally makes it to the races after bringing $200,000 as a yearling in the summer of 2017.  An extremely good-looking daughter of Unusual Heat, she should be plenty fit despite having nothing but a series of slow works leading up to the race.  However, she’s never been asked in the morning and hasn’t tipped her hand; we suspect she will today when it counts.  Lucky Stepper is another who seems better than her modest final times would indicate; she’s be laying back and then finishing in the morning and we expect to hear from her sometime in the final furlong.  We’ll use both in our rolling exotics and then have extra tickets keying Scarlet Heat on top.







Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis & Wagering Strategies for Friday, Jan. 11, 2019

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