The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players. The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play. Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.
The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Top selection indicated in bold-face.
A=Highest degree of confidence.
C=Least preferred, or pass.
X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.
Friday, March 2, 2018
RACE 1: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B
Single: 4-Wild Lando
Forecast: As this is written, a considerable amount of rain is expected on Friday. The track was sealed late Thursday, but it’s anybody’s guess as to how it will play. We’re going to handicap under the assumption that the races will be taken off the turf. Wild Lando stretches out for the first time in the opener, a state-bred maiden special weight miler, and has the pedigree to improve around two turns. His sprint form isn’t bad, his numbers fit, and he’s reunited with bug boy Roman, who’s ridden him twice in a pair of in-the-money efforts. Save Ground has decent turf form but has worked well on the main track, so we’ll assume he’ll remain in the race if there’s a surface switch as expected. Additionally, the son of Square Eddie has the blinkers-off angle that we always like.
RACE 2: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: X
Use: 1-Tequila Sunrise; 3-Tea for Tan; 5-Tell Your Mama
Forecast: This five-runner straight maiden main track miler for older fillies and mares is unplayable, so we’ll use the three logical contenders in our rolling exotics but otherwise not participate. Tea for Tan and Tequila Sunrise finished two-three in a similar event last month while separated by less than a length so they’re basically the same. Tell Your Mama is a fit on figures and should be heard from late.
RACE 3: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: B
Use: 3-Fire to the Wire; 4-Southern Thunder
Forecast: Southern Thunder has rising speed figures with plenty of room for further improvement. The Mullins-trained gelding is raised to the $25,000 non-winners of two level but retains Prat and is good enough to beat this field based strictly on speed figures. Fire to the Wire stretches out again, returns to the main track and drops to his proper level. The Koriner-trained gelding should enjoy a soft pace-stalking trip and have every chance.
RACE 4: Post: 2:30 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 3-Jeweled; 8-Tenthousandreasons
Forecast: This bottom-rung maiden claimer boils down to two main players. Jeweled, in the money in her last four with better-than-par speed figures for the level, is overdue for a win, and is well-spotted in this five furlong dash for fillies and mares. She was seven clear of the rest in her most recent outing and a similar effort today should be good enough. Tenthousandreasons, away since last summer but training reasonably well for her return for a barn that can get them ready, is worth including in your rolling exotics as well.
RACE 5: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: B
Single: 2-Silverspun Pickup
Forecast: This is a race that most likely will be transferred to the main track, and we’ll handicap it as such. Silverspun Pickup crushed a $25,000 claiming field sprinting last month, and in a sign of confidence is raised all the way up to the $50,000 level today while stretching out for the first time to a distance she’s bred to handle. Based purely on speed figures the daughter of Papa Clem should be good enough to handle the class hike. Let’s make her a straight play and rolling exotic single.
RACE 6: Post 3:30 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 4-Ipray; 5-Forbidden Command
Forecast: Forbidden Command was overmatched vs. allowance foes in a turf outing last time out but returns to reality today and seems capable of regaining her best form. She’s back with Baze, who rode her in a easy win over this track and distance two runs back. Ipray was claimed by a low percentage outfit but she’s a veteran mare that always tries, so we’ll toss her in as well.
RACE 7: Post 4:00 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 2-Red Lightning; 7-Ten Blessings
Forecast: Red Lightning couldn’t handle Roy H in the Palos Verdes Stakes last time out when winding up a respectable third. There’s nobody that tough in here so the speedy son of Midshipman should be capable of returning to winning form. Ten Blessings, away since finishing third in the 2016 Malibu Stakes, has trained well enough to be fit and ready and has shown the ability to fire fresh. We’ll prefer Red Lightning on top but use both in our rolling exotics.
RACE 8: Post 4:30 PT. Grade: B+
Single: Boy Howdy
Forecast: Boy Howdy has his issues but when he’s feeling good the Spawr-trained gelding can be tough to handle. A voided claim two races back and simply in too tough when unplaced in a strong $40,000 optional claimer last time out, the son of Southern Image drops for the money run, lands the cozy outside draw, and should have every chance to dictate the race. At 5/2 on the morning line he’s a straight play and rolling exotic single.