Jeff Siegel’s Blog:  Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies for Sunday, March 4, 2018

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST).  For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.


Sunday, March 4, 2018

​RACE 1: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: X

Use: 1-Sheza Factor; 5-Best of Me

Forecast: Trainer Peter Miller sends out a couple of well-regarded first-timers in this abbreviated maiden special weight sprint for 3-year-old fillies.  Sheza Factor has done some good work at Del Mar, is bred to be quick, and looks like a live item, rail and all.  Best of Me is another with a solid work tab and seems plenty fit and ready.  The winner probably will be one of these two, so we’ll include both in our rolling exotics but otherwise pass the race.


​​RACE 2: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: X

Use: 3-Invasion Looming; 4-Uncle Billy

Forecast: Here’s another race that probably is best left alone.  Uncle Billy shows up in a maiden claimer for the first time in his first start since November and has little to beat, though at 6/5 on the morning line the Miller-trained gelding doesn’t offer any wagering value.  Invasion Looming is a nine race maiden and certainly not one to trust, but he’s a fit on figures and is the one to fear most.  Both should be included in rolling exotic play.


​​RACE 3: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 2-Elevated Knight; 3-Roaring Fork

Forecast:  The third race is a five-runner affair over a mile for maiden $50,000 sophomore claimers.  Roaring Fork has rising speed figures and seems the solid choice at 8/5 on the morning line.  His pedigree suggests he’ll enjoy the stretch out in trip.  Elevated Knight drops into a claimer for the first time, stretches out, returns to the main track, and is likely to produce a forward move for D’Amato.  We’ll go with ‘Fork on top but use both in our rolling exotics.


​​​RACE 4: Post: 2:00 PT. Grade: B+

Use:  1-Take the One O One; 6-Surfing Star

Forecast: Take the One O One returns to sprinting in his first start since finishing a distant third in the FrontRunner Stakes-G1 during the fall meeting and also will be facing state-bred foes today.  The son of Acclamation was forced to sidelines due to sore shins but has trained like he’s fit and ready for Koriner and probably will outclass this field.  Surfing Star earned a big figure in his surprising debut win.  He’s coming back relatively quickly (17 days) but lands the cozy outside draw and should draft into an ideal stalking position.  Both should be used in rolling exotic play; we’ll have a few extra tickets keying Take the One O One on top.


​​RACE 5: Post 2:30 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 2-Shackalov; 6-Dare to Enter

Forecast: A little will go a very long way in this maiden $30,000 claimer over a mile for 3-year-olds.  Shackalov was six clear of the rest when runner-up in a similar spot last month and a repeat of that effort today should be more than good enough.  Dare to Enter switches to Bejarano while making his first start since being gelding and really won’t have to improve much to be a strong factor in a soft field.  Both should be included in your rolling exotic play.


RACE 6: Post 3:00 PT.  Grade: B-

Use: 1-Tequila Joe; 3-Maestro Dearte; 4-Lifeline

Forecast: We’re going to handicap this race under the assumption that it remains on turf.  If not, we’ll pass.  Maestro Dearte is a progressive son of Sidney’s Candy with two recent sharp wins over this course with strong speed figures.  He has an extra furlong to work with today and should enjoy the extra ground.  Nakatani stays aboard and fits him perfectly.  Lifeline returned off a long layoff to beat a lesser field in convincing fashion and has every right to build on that effort today.  Tequila Joe exits a pair of graded stakes races and seems likely to improve a bunch in this softer event.  The main negative is his lack of success over the local lawn; he’s 4-0-0-0 though his numbers have been strong.  Let’s use all three in our rolling exotics while giving slight preference on top to Maestro Dearte.


​​​​RACE 7: Post 3:30 PT. Grade: B+

Use: 3-Well Hello; 7-Broome

Forecast: Broome looks like a short price in the seventh race, split of today’s opener.  The daughter of Bellamy Road, runner-up in her last two starts with rising speed figures, should have a comfortable trip from her outside draw and looks capable of winning on the lead or from a stalking position.  We’ll also toss in Well Hello, a first-timer from the Blacker barn with a decent enough work tab that has attracted Prat.


​​​​​​​​RACE 8: Post 4:00 PT.  Grade: C

Use: 2-Mesa Sky; 4-Lambo Luxx

Forecast: This bottom-rung claiming sprint has nothing in it to trust, so tread lightly.  Mesa Sky claimed for $20,000 in his last start, shows up today for $6,250, not exactly a healthy pattern.  If he has one good one left for new trainer Sadler, he’ll win, but that may be a big if.  Lambo Luxx was a voided claim when second vs. similar in January and makes his first start since.  He’s genuine and consistent in this league but obviously has problems.


​​RACE 9: Post 4:30 PT.  Grade: B-

Use: 6-Vasilika; 7-Causeforcommotion; 8-Pistol Packin Rose

Forecast: The finale is slated for turf and we’ll handicap the race under the assumption that will remain on the lawn.  If not, we’ll pass.  Vasilika, claimed in her last pair, goes for the Hollendorfer barn today while seeking her third straight win.  She’s won at this distance in the past and should fire another good shot despite moving into the first-level allowance ranks.  Causeforcommotion has rising speed figures and rates a big look with another forward move.  Pistol Packin Rose has good tactical speed and can be especially dangerous if allowed to make the running.  She switches to Desormeaux, and given the projected pace scenario she should be on or near the lead throughout.




Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies for Sunday, March 4, 2018

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