Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies for Saturday, Jan. 27, 2018

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST).  For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.

SANTA ANITA

Saturday, January 27, 2018

RACE 1: Post 11:45 PT. Grade: B+

Use: 2-Full Access; 5-Dr. Troutman

Forecast: Dr. Troutman isn’t one to trust – he’s 1-for-15 lifetime – but his sole victory came over this course and distance, and with the addition of blinkers and the turn back in trip the son of Vronsky could bet set for a form reversal.  At 6-1 on the morning line he’s worth a bit of a gamble.  Full Access also shows the route-to-sprint angle that we like so much, retains Desormeaux, and should settle into a mid-pack early position and then have every chance to produce a strong late kick.  We’ll include both in our rolling exotics.

 

​​RACE 2: Post 12:15 PT. Grade: B+

Single: 6-Beaumarchais

Forecast: Although he wound up a distant second in a similar spot to snap his four race winning streak, Beaumarchais actually earned a career top speed figure when runner-up to Donworth last month and a similar effort today should be good enough for a return to the winner’s circle.  The son of Big Drama might be the controlling speed but if not he should be comfortably placed in a stalking position from his outside draw.  At 2-1 on the morning line in a six-runner field, there’s not much value to be found, but we can use him as a rolling exotic single.

 

​RACE 3: Post 12:45 PT. Grade: B

Use: 1-Barbara Beatrice; 3-Miss Sunset

Forecast:  Barbara Beatrice, away since November but training like she’s fit and ready, has won half of her six races over the Santa Anita turf course and is especially effective down the hill.  She likes to settle and produce a run and with good racing luck could be hard to contain in the final furlong.  Miss Sunset was out of her element in the La Brea Stakes but should go much better in this state-bred affair.  She has a prior win over the course, switches to Prat, and looks like the best of the speed types.  We’ll prefer Barbara Beatrice on top but double the race in our rolling exotics.

 

​​​RACE 4: Post: 1:15 PT. Grade: B

Use: 3-Masochistic; 5-Tough Sunday

Forecast: Masochistic clearly is the class of the race, and in his first start for Baffert and his first since last May he will be a short price in this state-bred sprint stakes.  The veteran gelding certainly has trained well enough to be fit and ready and has won half of his eight starts over the Santa Anita main track.  However, Tough Sunday is drawn just outside him and should enjoy an ideal pace-stalking trip.  In the money in 13 of 16 career starts, the son of Grazen always lays his body down and could spring a mild surprise if Masochistic , at age eight, isn’t quite as good as once was.  We’ll use both in our rolling exotics while putting ‘Sunday slightly on top.

 

​​RACE 5: Post 1:45 PT. Grade: B

Use: 2-Black Site; 8-Shackalov

Forecast: Black Site makes a monumental barn switch to the Billy Morey stable, and after finishing third in his first two career starts appears ready to produce a significant forward move and earn his diploma.  This extended sprint trip should be perfect for his closing style.  Shackalov is a first-time gelding returning off a 10 week layoff for Sherlock, who can get them ready after a vacation.  The son of Shackleford might be most effective as a late-running sprinter.  We’ll use both but press with Black Site on extra tickets.

 

​​​​RACE 6: Post 2:15 PT. Grade: B

Use: 1-Raven Creek; 2-Heck Yeah; 12-Bookies Luck

Forecast: Heck Yeah was visually very impressive breaking his maiden at first asking with a big figure at Los Alamitos, has trained well since, and is bred to love turf (Acclamation).  This group obviously is tougher but we’re expecting the Baffert-trained colt to be up to the task.  Raven Creek just broke his maiden over this course and distance with a career top number and may be the one fear most.  Bookies Luck is back sprinting where he belongs, but is questionable on turf.  He has touch of quality and should be prominent throughout, so if he handles the lawn he’ll be a strong factor.

 

​​​RACE 7: Post 2:45 PT.  Grade: C+

Use: 3-Matriculate; 4-Rocket Fuel

Forecast: Rocket Fuel drops below his win level of two races back and clearly has issues, but if has one good one left he’ll probably handle this field.  He’s always liked the Santa Anita main track and switches to D’Amato’s main man Baze.  Matriculate was claimed back by Spawr – always a good sign – and seems sure to improve off his dull try vs. slightly tougher company on New Year’s Eve.  He’s another with an excellent record over this surface.  In a race that we’ll otherwise not get too involved in, we’ll include both in our rolling exotics.

 

​​​​​RACE 8: Post 3:15 PT.  Grade: B

Use: 1-He Will; 6-Rye

Forecast:  He Will exits a series of graded stakes races and today tackles considerably easier California-bred competition.  A two-time winner over the Santa Anita turf course and with consistently strong speed figures, the son of Cyclotron should enjoy an ideal ground-saving, second-flight trip.  Rye, from the blistering Morey stable, returns from the Bay Area in good form and has a strong prior win over the Santa Anita turf course.  He’s reunited with Desormeaux, who always has gotten good run out of the son of English Channel.  We’ll try to get past this contentious race using just two, with preference on top to He Will.

 

 ​RACE 9: Post 3:45 PT.  Grade: B

Use: 6-Inland Empire; 12-Nice Ice

Forecast: Inland Empire closed a world of ground in a promising performance when fourth in her debut and should move forward off that effort, though we’re a bit concerned that this abbreviated sprint distance might be a tad sharp for her.  Desormeaux will have her bearing down in the final furlong and could get up in time.  Nice Ice ran very well in her debut up north while earning a nice speed figure and today shows up in the Koriner barn after being purchased privately.  She’ll have clear sailing and every chance from her outside draw and is a major player at 6-1 on the morning line.

 

RACE 10: POST 4:15.  GRADE: B-

Use: 3-George From Tahoe; 4-Smart Knows Smart; 12-Consensual

Forecast: George From Tahoe and Smart Knows Smart exit the same race – a solid downhill turf sprint – and both should appreciate this stretch out to a mile.  ‘Tahoe ran well in his debut when a willing second while earning a good number and should only improve, while the latter is a first-time gelding adding blinkers and switching to Prat, all factors that point to a forward move.  We’ll also toss in Consensual, a private purchase from up north who ran well sprinting over the all-weather in is debut and is bred to improve a ton on grass (Vronsky out of an Unusual Heat mare).   The local work tab for new trainer Cassidy catches the eye and the pedigree okay’s the stretch out in trip.

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies for Saturday, Jan. 27, 2018

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