The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players. The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play. Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.
The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Top selection indicated in bold-face.
A=Highest degree of confidence.
C=Least preferred, or pass.
X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.
Sunday, January 28, 2017
RACE 1: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 3-Sensible Myth; 5-Classy Atlantic; 8-Vinaka; 9-Onassis
Forecast: This is a better than par maiden turf sprint for sophomore fillies, requiring a substantial spread in rolling exotic play. Classy Atlantic tipped her hand in her debut when winding up a game second over this course and distance and hails from a barn that boasts terrific stats with second-time starters. Sensible Myth was nosed out under these exact conditions on opening day and clearly won’t have to improve much to earn her diploma. Vinaka flashed plenty of promise last summer when finishing second in a stakes in her debut at Pleasanton; she makes her first start since and with Henrythenavigator on the bottom side of her pedigree she should be able to handle the lawn. Onassis is a first timer for winning connections sporting a bullet 35 3/5 gate blowout just four days ago at Del Mar. She brought $140,000 last year at the OBS April sale, where she previewed in 21 2/5. Let’s use all four in our rolling exotics while slightly preferring Classy Atlantic on top.
RACE 2: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B
Use: 2-Ridgefield Rocket; 6-Lucky Romano
Forecast: Lucky Romano has much in his favor – outside draw, blinkers off, the route-to-sprint angle, and stakes-to-starter’s allowance class drop – but he’s not particularly fast on speed figures so we’re not going to single the Glatt-trained gelding. The son of Lucky Pulpit should be on or near the lead and have every chance, but we’re also going to toss in Ridgefield Rocket, a visually pleasing recent maiden claiming winner in a race that has proven to be productive. The son of Stay Thirsty is the “other” Glatt in the race and is getting faster on numbers with each outing.
RACE 3: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: B
Use: 4-Be a Lady; 5- Pica
Forecast: Pica loves this main track (four wins, three seconds in 12 starts) and moves up a notch following a nice win vs. $16,000 foes earlier this month. She has a good stalking style, retains Bejarano, and deserves a very slight edge on top over the other logical contender, Be a Lady. The daughter of Cindago returns to her claiming level after finishing second in tougher company in her last two while earning speed figures that are good enough to win. She, too, is partial to the local main track, having finished first or second in five of seven starts. We’ll try to get by in rolling exotic play using only these two.
RACE 4: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 1-Fly to Mars; 2-Calculator
Forecast: Miller holds the aces with course specialist Fly to Mars and class-dropper Calculator in this restricted stakes for older horses sprinting down the hill. Fly to Mars is perfect in two races under these conditions and looks like the controlling speed. Clearly this is a tougher field that he’s ever beaten but this Calbred gelding has numbers that put him right there. Calculator didn’t get the best of runs when fourth in the Midnight Lute Stakes on the main track last month but he, too, is 2-for-2 lifetime down the hill and against this lesser group is the logical favorite and one to beat. Because of his superior early speed, Fly to Mars will get the edge on top but both should be used in rolling exotic play.
RACE 5: Post 2:30 PT. Grade:
Use: 1-Turing Machine; 4-Mariana’s Girl; 5-Allie’s Love; 8-Angel’s N Devildogs
Forecast: This maiden claiming sprint for sophomore fillies is inscrutable, so we’ll use four and hope to get one of them home. Otherwise, it’s a pass race. Allie’s Love exits a pair of straight maiden state-bred sprints and today faces an infinitely softer group. She could get very brave if she can shake loose early and at 8-1 on the morning line she might offer a bit of value. Turing Machine is another first-time-for-a-tag play and might be a late threat if she can secure some racing room from the rail. Mariana’s Girl isn’t fast on numbers but she’s hit the board in her last three and figures for at least a share again today. Angels N Devildogs tries claimers for the first time and earned a good figure when fifth last time out, but that race came on turf. She should be part of the pace, at the very least.
RACE 6: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: C+
Forecast: Small ticket players may want to consider Singleforareason, who makes her second start off a long layoff for Eurton and should be fitter and tougher today after setting the fractions and then tiring in the final furlong in a similar spot earlier this month. She gets a significant break in the weights with the switch to hot-riding bog boy Roman; in this league, every little bit helps. It’s either her, or a spread, or perhaps even a “buy.”
RACE 7: Post 3:30 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 6-Toinette; 9-Rockin Ready
Forecast: Toinette was given a run in her debut when she flew home to finish fourth on dirt and today moves the Hillside Turf Course for what we assume will be a much more serious effort. The daughter of Scat Daddy switches to Bejarano, shows a bullet half mile workout over the training track last week, and has the edge in the speed figure department. Stranger danger comes in the form of the D’Amato-trained Rockin Ready, a $280,000 Ocala March 2-year-old in training purchase last year and bred to excel on grass (More Than Ready). We’ll prefer Toinette on top but we’ll use Rockin Ready as a saver, at least.
RACE 8: Post 4:00 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Bar Scene; 9-Lady Ninja; 10-Life’s Blessings
Forecast: Life’s Blessings launches a comeback for Baffert and could be a better type following an extended vacation. She’s clearly capable of firing a big shot fresh and from her cozy outside draw can dictate the race. Bar Scene has plenty of speed but is another returning from a long layoff. The works look decent and she’s a fit on numbers, but because she comes from a low profile barn she’ll probably leave close to her morning line of 6-1. Lady Ninja just won a $50,000 claimer in game style with a number that makes her a solid fit right back in this allowance optional claimer. She’s won under Prat in the past and has the proper style for this extended sprint trip.
RACE 9: Post 4:30 PT. Grade: B
Use: 2-Concur; 3-Fibonacci; 10-Fengari
Forecast: Fibonacci was a beaten choice in his debut at Del Mar but showed enough promise to deserve another chance. The son of Artie Schiller has worked like he’s plenty fit and draws a favorable inside post. Concur stretches out for the first time, has plenty of zip, and with Dynaformer on the bottom side of his pedigree he should be able to handle the grass. The switch to Prat is another positive factor. Fengari will appreciate this turn back to a mile, switches to Bejarano, and has steadily rising speed figures. He’s worth tossing in on a ticket or two.