Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies for Saturday, October 13, 2018

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go four-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST).  For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.

SANTA ANITA

Saturday, October 13, 2018

​RACE 1: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 1-Broken Up; 2-Just Kidding; 6-Popyhowuspelcupcak

Forecast: The opener is a messy $20,000 claiming turf miler with lots of possibilities.  Popyhowuspelcupcak, freshened since late August and training sharply in the interim, drops for the money run, switches to Pedroza, and comes off a career-top effort when second in restricted $32,000 affair at Del Mar.  This is a realistic spot for the Morey-trained gelding, so we’ll put him slightly on top.  Just Kidding is genuine and consistent and coming off a nice starter’s allowance win at Los Alamitos.  His main track numbers are strong, but the Knapp-trained gelding is unproven on grass.  Broken Up is winless in 10 starts over the local lawn but is usually a late threat.  He should at least get a piece of it.  We’ll try to get by using just these three but feel free to go deeper if your budget allows.

 

​​RACE 2: Post 1:05 PT. Grade: C+

Use: 2-Twisted Rosie; 4-We Will Re Joyce

Forecast: We Will Re Joyce moves up a notch following a good Los Alamitos win with a career top speed figure.  If she can repeat that effort today, the O’Neill-trained daughter of Kafwain should be tough right back.  Twisted Rosie moves down in class in search of her proper level.  Two of her three career wins were earned over this main track, and the Stute-trained filly has solid recent numbers that make her a fit in a modest affair.  Both should be included in rolling exotic play.

 

​​RACE 3: Post 1:38 PT. Grade: B+

Single: 6-Copper Fever

Forecast:Copper Fever has much in her favor in this restricted (nw-2) $25,000 claiming hillside turf sprint for fillies and mares. She drops into a claimer for the first time, sports a bullet recent blowout, switches to Prat, and ran very well to be second in her only prior start over this unique course.  At 5/2 on the morning line, the daughter of Street Cry is a straight play and rolling exotic single.

 

​​​RACE 4: Post: 2:11 PT. Grade: X

Single: 2-Cruel Intention

Forecast:  Cruel Intention has trained like a good thing for Baffert and should completely outclass this band of state-bred juveniles.  The son of Smiling Tiger brought $200,000 at the Barretts April Sale and always has been very highly regarded.  However, at 4/5 on the morning line he’ll offer no value other than as a free bingo space in rolling exotic play.

 

​RACE 5: Post 2:44 PT. Grade: B

Use:  2-Marjorie E; 6-Thalia; 8-Mo See Cal

Forecast: Thalia is progressing nicely with every outing for D’Amato and with another forward move today may win right back after breaking her maiden in sharp style at Del Mar in late August.  The lightly-raced daughter of Tizbud has worked well since raced and seems capable of producing the last run under Franco, who fits her well.  Mo See Cal earned an identical Beyer speed figure (77) that Thalia was assigned when beating starter’s allowance foes at Del Mar in her most recent outing, so these two are tough to separate.  The daughter of Uncle Mo has an effective pace-stalking style and should draft into a nice spot in a field without a whole lot of early zip.  Marjorie E was a beaten choice when fourth in a similar first-level allowance affair at Del Mar, but her starter’s allowance win two races back charts well here, so we’ll give the Gallagher-trained filly another chance.  Let’s use all three in our rolling exotics and then have an extra ticket or two keying Thalia on top.

 

​​​​RACE 6: Post 3:16 PT. Grade: C

Use: 1-Charming Alexis; 9-Whata Flirt; 10-Queen Shelly Ann

Forecast: There’s nothing to trust in this bottom-rung maiden claiming abbreviated sprint for older fillies and mares, so we’ll spread in rolling exotic play but without any degree of confidence.  Charming Alexis has the most room to improve; the daughter of First Defence flashed speed before weakening and winding up third in her debut and could move forward today for a barn that has reasonable stats with second-time starters.  Whata Flirt has numbers that make her a threat, but she failed at 3/5 when second at Los Alamitos vs. similar last month.  Now in the O’Neill barn, the daughter of Crown of Thorns could improve enough to make amends.  Queen Shelly Ann, second off the claim for Miller, will have clear sailing outside and should have every chance with a pace-stalking trip.  Tread lightly here.

 

​​​RACE 7: Post 3:47 PT.  Grade: B-

Use: 3-Coco Kisses; 4-Paprika; 7-Absolutely Perfect

Forecast: Absolutely Perfect has worked reasonably well for her debut and in an open fray seems as good as any.  The daughter of Vronsky looked decent in a recent half mile team gate work and should be set for a good effort first crack out of the box.    Paprika has numbers that fit and adds blinkers for the first time, so improvement is likely.  She’s reunited with Pratt, who got good run out of her in a second-place effort on turf two races back.  Coco Kisses has been knocking on the door - she’s finished second in three straight races – but as an eight-race maiden may have gotten used to getting beat.  The daughter of Empire Way tends to find little under pressure, so while she’s certainly capable of hitting the board again, she’s not one to be counted on.  We’ll toss her in on a ticket or two, but nothing more.

 

​​​​​RACE 8: Post 4:38 PT.  Grade: B

Use: 1-Princess Roi; 7-How About Zero; 9-S Y Sky

Forecast:  This competitive turf sprint for state-bred fillies and mares has at least three strong contenders and arguably more.  We’ll go three-deep in our rolling exotics while preferring S Y Sky on top.  The daughter of Grazen has been away since the summer of 2017 but can fire fresh (she won her debut) and is one-for-one over the Hillside course.  Her work tab at San Luis Rey Downs isn’t fancy but is solid and should have her fit and ready.  How About Zero is a course specialist with a series of slow and easy recent workouts; under these conditions she’s a major player with her best effort.  Princess Roi has never sprinted on turf but there’s no reason she won’t like this course and trip.  She’s been especially impressive in recent workouts for Baltas and might appreciate patient handling from Smith.

 

RACE 9: Post 4:49 PT.  Grade: C

Use: 4-Two Fifty Coup; 7-Lifesbeengoodsofar

Forecast: Two Fifty Coup drops to his lowest level ever and may have found his friends.  The son of Congrats has little to beat, and while he’s hardly a world beater he won’t have to be against this group.  He’s 8/5 on the morning line by default.  Lifesbeengoodsofar adds blinkers and is a first-time gelding in his second career start for Machowsky, so there’s reason to believe improvement is likely.  He chased tougher in his only prior outing, but this group should be in his wheel house.  Let’s use both in our rolling exotics but best advice is to include as many as you can afford to.

 

RACE 10: Post 5:20 PT.  Grade: B-

Use: 2-Well Hello; 3-Great Return; 4-Ladybug; 11-Nice Ice

Forecast: This wide-open grass grab bag is a better-than-par race for the level and contains several contenders, requiring a spread in rolling exotic play.  Great Return is lightly-raced and improving and should enjoy today’s extended sprint distance.  The late-running daughter of Exchange Rate ran out of ground in a five-furlong turf dash vs. similar at Del Mar but at today’s trip could easily produce the last run with good racing luck.  Well Hello has the route-to-sprint angle we like and a pedigree that suggests she’ll handle the switch in surface.  She’s another who should be heard from late.  Ladybug broke her maiden over this course in June and has trained like she’s ready to repeat that type of effort for Sadler.  She gets a break in the weights with the switch to bug boy Espinoza and is another who’ll be bearing down in the final furlong.  Nice Ice can be tossed in somewhere as well; the Koriner-trained filly beat maidens in a downhill turf sprint last spring, is turning back from a series of routes, and has looked quite good in the morning of late.  She has good tactical speed and may be better than her morning line of 8-1 gives her credit for.

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies for Saturday, October 13, 2018

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