Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies for Sunday, Feb. 11, 2018

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST).  For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.


Sunday, February 11, 2018


RACE 1: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: B

Use: 2-War Moccasin; 4-Vasilika

Forecast: Vasilika, first off the claim for hot trainer Falcone, is a New York shipper with good, form and numbers that fit very well at this level.  The daughter of Skipshot looks primed to collect some of that valuable ship-and-win money and gets the edge over War Moccasin, a one-level class dropper following a solid runner-up effort over this course and distance last month.  These are the two we’ll be using in our rolling exotics.


​​RACE 2: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B+

Use: 3-Twisted Rosie; 5-Kiss of Dahpespe

Forecast: Kiss of Dahpespe is a lightly-raced filly with rising speed figures and should have every chance from her cozy outside post.  She gets a break in the weights with the switch to bug boy Roman and likely will employ pace-stalking tactics. Twisted Rosie has a prior win over this track, switches to Elliott, and may be the quickest of the quick.  We’ll use her as a saver in our rolling exotics but the main push goes to Kiss of Dahpespe.

​RACE 3: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: B+

Single: 4-More Honor

Forecast:  More Honor finished a distant second in his debut in a hot race with subsequent stakes winner Lombo behind him, and earned a good speed figure despite finishing nine lengths behind runaway winner Ax Man.  This field doesn’t appear to have anything remotely in that league, so lets’ make the son of More Than Ready a straight play and rolling exotic single.


​​​RACE 4: Post: 2:00 PT. Grade: B+

Single:  A Red Tie Day

Forecast:  A Red Tie Day exits an much tougher race and drops for the money run in this $32,000 claimer over a mile on turf.  The Baltas-trained gelding loves this course (5 career wins), switches to Prat, and projects to enjoy a soft pace-stalking trip.  He’s a straight play and rolling exotic single.

​RACE 5: Post 2:30 PT. Grade: X

Single: 6-Sagittari

Forecast: Sagittari should be a very short price in this bottom-rung maiden claiming sprint for older horses.  He’s more than good enough to win based purely on speed figures and should produce a significant forward move in his second start off a long layoff for the Desormeaux brothers.  There’s not much we can do with him other than to use the son of Astrology as a no-value rolling exotic single.

​​​RACE 6: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: X

Use: 6-Old School Ike

Forecast: Here’s yet another short priced favorite that should win.  Old School Ike was eight lengths clear of the rest when second over this track and distance in a similar maiden claimer last month and nothing more will be needed to handle this group.  The son of Old Fashioned probably will be the controlling speed but we doubt he needs the lead to win if something else decides to go.

​​RACE 7: Post 3:30 PT.  Grade: B+

Use: 3-Lucy De; 7-Coachwhip

Forecast: Lucy De shortens to a mile and one-quarter after staying on well at 12 furlongs in the Astra Stakes last month, winding up a very respectable third.  This return to the second-level allowance ranks should allow the veteran daughter of Decarchy to return to winning form.  Coachwhip is the one to fear most.  An excellent runner-up in the Miss America Stakes up north two runs back, the Mandella-trained filly was overmatched when put on the lead in the American Oaks in her most recent outing and faded, but with patient handling today she’s certainly eligible to bounce back in a big way.  Let’s use both in our rolling exotics and then press a bit keying Lucy De on top.

​​​​RACE 8: Post 4:00 PT.  Grade: B-

Use: 1-Backintheacademy; 3-Ipray

Forecast:  We’ll try to survive and advance using just two in this low-level $6,250 main track miler for fillies and mares.  Ipray was a voided claim in her most recent outing last July and then was stopped on.  Always partial to the Santa Anita main track, the daughter of Hold Me Back attracts Bejarano and has trained well enough for new trainer Palma to be fit and ready.  Backintheacademy drops to her lowest level ever, lands the good rail, and has a chance to make amends for her recent disappointment as the favorite.  She should enjoy an ideal ground-saving, second flight trip and have every chance from there.


​RACE 9: Post 4:30 PT.  Grade: B-

Use: 1-Out of The Flames; 5-Finess Bere; 7-Treasuring; 8-Ms Bad Behavior

Forecast: The Sweet Life Stakes is carded as the finale and is highly competitive. Out of The Flames has run two excellent races since being imported from England and looks ready to win, though her rail post is this downhill turf sprint does her no favors.  Prat should have this English-bred filly within striking range, and with good racing luck she seems capable of tagging the leaders.  Ms Bad Behavior just edged ‘Flames where they met over this course and distance last month and could be the one to fear most right back, though today her main rival gets a four pound break in the weights.  Treasuring made her U.S. debut at Del Mar on Breeders’ Cup weekend in the Juvenile Turf Sprint against the boys and found five furlongs a bit too sharp, finishing well but never really landing a blow while beaten less than four length.  She’s a stable mate of Out of The Flames in the Callaghan barn and with good racing luck could be heard from in the final furlong.  Finess Bere, a respectable fourth in the Blue Norther Stakes in her first outing in the U.S. on New Year’s Eve, has a right to improve for Baffert with this turn back in trip, and is another worth including in your rolling exotics.


Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies for Sunday, Feb. 11, 2018

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