Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies for Sunday, Jan. 14, 2018

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST).  For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.


Sunday, January 14, 2017


RACE 1: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B

Use: 1-Principal Bob; 4-Impression

Forecast: Impression returns from Golden Gate Fields and shows up in a claimer for the first time after finishing in the money in straight maiden company in his last three.  This is a logical spot for a 5-year-old maiden and Smith, who knows him well, jumps back aboard.  Principal Bob, freshened since November, projects to enjoy a ground-saving trip from the rail and has figures that should at least land him in the frame.  We’ll use him in our rolling exotic tickets as a back-up, but the main push goes to Impression.


​​​RACE 2: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: B

Use: 4-Oh Man; 5-Fire When Ready

Forecast: Oh Man exits the much-tougher King Glorious Stakes and switches to Bejarano while removing blinkers.  He’s questionable around two turns but should be very competitive at this level.  Fire When Ready has the fastest figures and shouldn’t have any issue with the stretch out following a highly-rated maiden claiming tally at Los Alamitos.  He’ll probably be on or near the lead again.  We’ll include both in our rolling exotics and then press using Fire When Ready on top.


RACE 3: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: B

Use: 1-Acker; 3-Big Sky Logan

Forecast: This is a split of the first race and Mandella, who trains the logical top pick in that race (Impression), looks to take both haves with Acker.  The son of Include might find a flat mile a tad sharp, but his numbers are rising, he switches to Prat, lands the good rail, and doesn’t really have a whole lot to beat.  We’ll put him solidly on top but also use Big Sky Logan, a maiden who was overmatched in stakes competition last March and then disappeared, but returns in a realistic spot for a hot barn that excels with layoff runners.


 RACE 4: Post 2:30 PT. Grade: B

Use: 2-Spitfire; 6-American League

Forecast: Spitfire ran very well off a long layoff when second in a similar affair at Los Alamitos last month.  Talamo stays aboard and it’s worth noting that this gelded son of Artie Schiller won his only prior start over the Santa Anita main track with a career top speed figure.  American League, first off the claim for Wright, looks like the controlling speed and will take them as far as he can.  However, with a lifetime record of 2-for-23, the son of Old Fashioned isn’t really one to trust.  We’ll use him as a back-up on a ticket or two while strongly preferring Spitfire on top.


​​​RACE 5: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: C+

Use: 1-Dos Palos; 6-Starship Chewy; 10-Touchdown U S C

Forecast: The fifth is another maiden claimer, this one over a mile on the main track for $30,000 3-year-olds.  Touchdown U S C is the morning line choice at 9/5 but must leave from the extreme outside post in his first start since mid-November, and probably will be a bit of an underlay.  He can win, for sure, but is hardly a slam dunk.  Dos Palos has the benefit of the rail, and with rising numbers he could produce another forward move.  The son of Gio Ponti should draft into an ideal pace-stalking position and have every chance.  Starship Chewy, a fair fourth in the same race Touchdown U S C exits, has numbers that are going in the right direction, gets a break in the weights with the switch to bug boy Roman, and offers some value at 12-1 on the morning line.  Tread lightly here.


​​​​RACE 6: Post 3:30 PT. Grade: C+

Use: 5-Schooley; 6-Dial Me In; 9-Bold Papa

Forecast: This straight maiden state-bred mile turf affair doesn’t have a whole lot in it, so you probably should use as many as you can afford to in rolling exotic play.  Bold Papa actually finished first in a similar event over the Del Mar turf course two runs back but was disqualified, and we’ll toss out his most recent race on the main track, so the Papa Clem gelding is a logical contender.  That said, he’s never been one to trust.  Schooley, with only four prior outings, has more room to improve and didn’t get the best of runs when fifth behind Bold Papa in that mid-November affair.  Prat stays aboard and with clear sailing this son of Thorn Song could produce the last run.  Dial Me In, a close third in that same race, retains Espinoza and may be the most dangerous of the closers.  We’ll try to get by using just these three with a very slight edge on top to Schooley.


 RACE 7: Post 4:00 PT.  Grade: B-

Use: 2-Family Girl; 3-Twisted Rosie; 7-Show It N Moe It

Forecast: Shoe It N Moe It is a stakes winner but she’s out of conditions so this seems the logical spot – an optional $50,000 claimer – for the modestly-bred filly.  She’s most effective sprinting, likes this main track, and beats this group with anything close to her best race.  Family Girl crushed a $32,000 claiming field by seven lengths at Los Alamitos and earned a number that makes her a strong fit on the raise.  Let’s see if she can duplicate that effort on the big track.  Twisted Rosie returns to a sprint and tackles easier foes; her win two runs back over this main track makes her a solid contender.  We’ll go three-deep in our rolling exotics while preferring Show It N Moe It on top.


​​​​​RACE 8: Post 4:30 PT.  Grade: B+

Use: 2-Selcourt; 5-Princess Karen

Forecast: Selcourt has been away since May but if she returns with all of her speed she’ll be hard to catch.  The Sadler-trained daughter of Tiz Wonderful is fast on figures, can fire fresh, and has trained well enough to be fit and ready.  Princess Karen was overmatched in the La Brea Stakes but she isn’t today and is the one to fear most.  Desormeaux will have her within striking range throughout.  Preference on top goes to Selcourt but both should be included in your rolling exotics.


RACE 9: Post 5:00 PT.  Grade: B+

Use: 5-How Unusual; 10-Estrechada; 11-Evo Campo

Forecast: This turf marathon is made to order for Estrechada, a graded stakes winner in excellent company back east and returning to her preferred surface after failing to handle the dirt in the Marathon Stakes vs. the boys on Breeders’ Cup weekend.  These are here friends and this is what she excels at.  Evo Campo is a major player as well – she boasts a win over Estrechada over this course in the Santa Barbara Stakes last spring – and is a “must use” in the exotics.  How Unusual seeks her third straight win, is a proven marathoner, and has never been better.  She also loves the Santa Anita lawn.  We’ll give Estrechada the edge on top but triple the race in our rolling exotics.




Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies for Sunday, Jan. 14, 2018

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