The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players. The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play. Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.
The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Top selection indicated in bold-face.
A=Highest degree of confidence.
C=Least preferred, or pass.
X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.
Monday, January 15, 2018
RACE 1: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 4-Defiantly; 5-Any Questions
Forecast: Defiantly sports the always-dangerous blinkers off angle in his first outing since October, switches to Nakatani, and has numbers that fit. He’s run well fresh in the past and likely will draft into a comfortable second-flight position. Any Questions is a dangerous New York invader capable of winning on the lead or from far off the pace. He’s jumped two-levels in class by Jacobson after earning a career top speed figure in his most recent win and attracts Desormeaux. At 6-1 on the morning line he’s worth tossing in.
RACE 2: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: C
Use: 4-Trapper Peak; 6-Risky Proposition
Forecast: Trapper Peak tipped his hand when missing in a photo in his debut last October and if he repeats that effort today he should be along in time. However, with a one-level class drop and a somewhat lethargic work pattern, he offers little value at 8/5 on the morning line. First-timer Risky Proposition hails from the Miller barn (solid stats with debut runners) and certainly won’t have to be a world beater to act with these. We’ll try to get by using just these two in a race that we’ll otherwise pass.
RACE 3: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: B
Use: 7-Yes I’m Ready; 8-Violent Ridge
Forecast: Yes I’m Ready is a progressive sort adding blinkers for the first time and shows three nice workouts since finishing third in a hot race at Los Alamitos last month. Today looks like his day. Violent Ridge is improving with racing and appears well-spotted as well. The Palma-trained gelding should be able to pick his spot from his cozy outside draw. Both should be included in rolling exotic play with preference on top going to Yes I’m Ready.
RACE 4: Post: 2:02 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 5-Trapalanda; 8-Mister Mojo
Forecast: Let’s go for a bit of a price. Trapalanda (8-1) exits a series of much tougher starter’s allowance races and though a well-beaten fourth in his most recent outing he still managed to earn a career top speed figure. He adds blinkers for the first time, shows a strong series of workouts, and should be primed for a major forward move. Mister Mojo is the likely choice and one to beat. The class drop – following two good races vs. tougher – is a bit suspicious but the son of Biondetti has a prior win over this main track and a recent bullet workout to have him on edge. We’ll put Trapalanda on top but include both in our rolling exotics.
RACE 5: Post 2:34 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 1-Afleet Ascent; 8-Colonel Cash
Forecast: Colonel Cash had a bit of rough trip when a better-than-looked fourth in a very fast turf sprint at Del Mar in his last outing but should have clear sailing today from his comfortable outside draw. The son of Colonel John switches to Prat, has worked very well in recent weeks, and should produce a significant forward move for D’Amato. Afleet Ascent returns to the first-level allowance ranks after finishing a respectable fourth in a two-turn stakes up north. This turn back to a sprint should help, too, as the son of Northern Afleet won his only prior grass sprint outing in good style at Del Mar. We’ll double the race in our rolling exotics while having a few extra tickets keying Colonel Cash on top.
RACE 6: Post 3:06 PT. Grade: B
Use: 4-Gem of a Guy; 8-Jimmythisnjimthat
Forecast: Maiden $30,000 sophomores sprint six furlongs in an open affair featuring several first time starters. We’ll try to survive and advance using just two. Gem of a Guy has the benefit of a prior run vs. tougher straight maiden foes at Los Alamitos and should thoroughly enjoy this much softer company. Roman stays aboard for Miller, who has solid stats with second-timers. Jimmythisnjimthat is an intriguing debut runner trainer by capable Blake Heap. The works aren’t fast, but he’s an efficient mover with more speed than he’s been allowed to show. Beware.
RACE 7: Post 3:38 PT. Grade: B+
Single: 4-Insta Erma
Forecast: Insta Erma was a closing third in the Matriarch S.-G1 in a career top performance in November and a repeat of that effort today should land her in the winner’s circle. She’s a perfect one-for-one over the Santa Anita turf course, retains Nakatani, and has a good stalking style that should keep her free of trouble. There’s not too much value to be had in the straight pool (she’s 2-1 on the morning line) but we can use her as a rolling exotic single.
RACE 8: Post 4:10 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 1-Hot Sean; 2-Donworth
Forecast: Donworth got a confidence building win over this main track last month and earned a powerful number in the process, one that makes him tough right back despite the raise in class. The ex-classer should draft into a lovely pace-prompting position. Hot Sean is rounding to top form, most recently finishing a strong second in a fast, highly-rated race. He should run at least as well and perhaps better today from his good rail post.
RACE 9: Post 4:42 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 6-Red Shelby; 11-Sunday Prophet
Forecast: Red Shelby turns back to a sprint, catches a moderate field of older maiden fillies and mares, and seems ready to graduate. Her numbers are rising with experience; she retains Desormeaux, and may be most effective if held up early and allowed to run late. Sunday Prophet lands the good outside post and appears to be the most dangerous of the speed types. We’ll press with Red Shelby on top but have tickets using both in our rolling exotics.