The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players. The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play. Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.
The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Top selection indicated in bold-face.
A=Highest degree of confidence.
C=Least preferred, or pass.
X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.
Sunday, March 11, 2018
RACE 1: Post 11:30 PT. Grade: B+
Single: 9-Inland Empire
Forecast: All races are off the turf today. Inland Empire stretches out to a distance she’s bred to handle and with two sprints under her belt she should be ready to win from a moderate group of straight maiden state-bred fillies and mares. Her pedigree suggests a wet track won’t be an issue, so let’s make her a straight play and rolling exotic single.
RACE 2: Post 12:00 PT. Grade: B+
Single: 2-Magnificent Q T
Forecast: Magnificent Q T caught the eye in her debut, finishing strongly in a promising effort for a modest maiden-claiming type. She tackles a bit tougher today but gets an extra furlong to work with and seems likely to produce a significant forward move over an off track she’s bred to handle. She’s a straight play and rolling exotic single.
RACE 3: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 3-Fast as Cass; 6-Violent Ridge; 8-George from Tahoe
Forecast: Violent Ridge just finished second in the Cal Cup Derby behind Heck Yeah while nearly four lengths clear of the rest, so he’s the logical top pick in this fairly competitive non-winners of two. We’re not sure how he’ll handle the wet surface, so we’ll also include in our rolling exotics Fast as Cass and George from Tahoe. The former won an off-the-turf maiden in good style over a wet fast track just eight days ago and returns quickly while shedding nine pounds, while the latter just won smartly at this distance (on grass) and is a fit on numbers.
RACE 4: Post: 1:00 PT. Grade: B
Use: 6-Smoovie; 8-We All Have Dreams
Forecast: We All Have Dreams lands the cozy outside post for her second career start and should have every chance to graduate from what looks to be a moderate field of straight maiden sophomore fillies. We suspect she’ll handle the off track, but who really knows for sure? Smoovie produced a forward move speed figure-wise in her second career start and sports the blinkers-off angle that always catches our eye. At 8-1 on the morning line she’s worth tossing in.
RACE 5: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: X
Forecast: If Justify is the best 3-year-old in the Baffert barn as we suspect, he’ll win this entry-level allowance race as he’s supposed to. But there’s no wagering value and the off track is always a concern, so clearly this is a race that is best left alone.
RACE 6: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: C
Use: 2-Winner’s Dream; 6-Salsita; 9-Wonderful Lie
Forecast: With this switch of this $20,000 claiming miler for fillies and mares from turf to dirt, anything goes. Winner’s Dream was claimed back by Carava – always a good sign – and gets weight off with the switch to Roman. She’s a fit on numbers but is unproven over a wet track. Salsita is turf specialist trying an off track, but is good enough to win in her first-off-the-claim for Miller if she can handle the surface. Wonderful Lie drops to her lowest level ever, switches to Prat, and ran well in both of her prior races over an off surface. However, she might prefer one turn. Tread lightly here.
RACE 7: Post 2:30 PT. Grade: B
Forecast: Airfoil has remarkably been claimed the last seven times he’s run without being protected and today finds himself in the Hollendorfer barn. The veteran son of Bernardini hit the board in his only prior off-track appearance, retains Prat, and is a solid fit on speed figures. With a good racing luck from his rail post he’ll be hard to deny. Let’s use him as a single in rolling exotic play.
RACE 8: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 4-Masochistic; 5-Richard’s Boy 6-Smokey Image
Forecast: This year’s edition of the Sensational Star Stakes has been switched to the main track, so most of the Hillside course specialists will stay in the barn. Masochistic tries blinkers so maybe that will help, but there’s clear evidence that his best is behind him. Maybe he’ll enjoy the wet surface, who knows? Richard’s Boy has a pedigree that should allow him to handle the surface switch and tackles state-bred foes today. Smokey Image returns to a sprint and could be a late threat and a decent price. In a race full of question marks, we suggest you go as deep as your budget allows.
RACE 9: Post 3:30 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 3-Princess Dorian; 6-Velvet Jones; 9-Lovely Linda
Forecast: This $12,500 non-winners of two extended sprint is another that requires a spread in rolling exotic play. Lovely Linda has the always-dangerous route-to-spring angle and catches an off track we suspect she’ll handle, so at 12-1 on the morning line she offers some price value in an open fray. Princess Dorian has another popular form reversal angle – blinkers off – and drops to her lowest level ever. She has back numbers that make her a major threat. Velvet Jones is a first-off-the-claim for Carava and may improve; she wants to be held up early and allowed to produce a late run and given that kind of ride today should be the most dangerous of the closing types.