Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategy for Saturday, April 7, 2018

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST).  For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.

SANTA ANITA

Saturday, April 7, 2018

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RACE 1: Post 11:35 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 1-Zusha; 6-Whirling

Forecast:  Whirling has trained like a nice type and is a "must use;" the main concern is that first-timers from the Richard Mandella barn haven't always run to their works.  Zusha showed some ability in her debut last November and has every right to step forward.  She looks like the best of the known element.  Let's try to get by using just these two in our rolling exotics.

To watch an expanded video analysis of this race, click here.

 

​​RACE 2: Post 12:05 PT. Grade: B

Use: 3-Courtship; 4-Implictly; 10-More Honor

Forecast:  We're largely guessing putting implicitly on top in this wide open maiden grass grab bag, but the son of Artie Schiller has trained like a nice sort at Del Mar and is bred to excel on turf.  He looks like a live item with Smith taking the call and may offer good value at or near his morning line of 6-1.  More Honor has the route-to-sprint angle that we like and, being a son of More Than Ready, should move up a ton on grass.  His race before last charts very well with these.  Courtship has done some good work in the morning and could be a fit; he's 12-1 on the morning line and is worth using at that price despite the barn's lackluster record with first-timers.

To watch an expanded video analysis of this race, click here.

 

​​RACE 3: Post 12:40 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 1-Kona Coast; 4-Trustworthy; 6-Taniko

Forecast:  The third race is starter's allowance scramble that has many possibilities.  Trustworthy took the overland route and went to lugging in under pressure in deep stretch when third vs. similar last month; the son of Smart Strike has plenty of room to improve, switches to Rosario, and should draft into a comfortable second flight, ground-saving  position and then have every chance from there.  Kona Coast is lightly-raced and improving with each outing; he lands the good rail and is a strong contender based on numbers.  Taniko also earned a good figure in his most recent outing, though his was earned with the benefit of an extreme race-shape that complimented his late-running style.  We'll see if he can run back to that effort today when faced with a different pace scenario.

To watch an expanded video analysis of this race, click here.

 

​​​RACE 4: Post: 1:15 PT. Grade: B

Use: 1-Spiced Perfection; 4-Smiling Tigress; 8-Show It N Moe It

Forecast:  Show It N Moe It looks primed for another major effort in the fourth race, the Evening Jewel Stakes for state-bred 3-year-old filly sprinters.  She gets the lovely outside draw and should be on or near the lead throughout.  Her most recent win earned a career top number, one that's good enough to beat this field if repeated.  Smiling Tigress was taken off the pace in her most outing and the change in tactics resulted in a sharp win with a strong figure.  This is a tougher group but with another forward move at this extended sprint trip she could be dangerous in the final furlong.  Spiced Perfection likely will be sent hard from the rail to establish the pace and if she's not respected the Koriner-trained filly could get very brave on the front end.  Preference on top goes to Show It N Moe It but all three should be included somewhere on your ticket.

To watch an expanded video analysis of this race, click here.

 

​​RACE 5: Post 1:50 PT. Grade: B+

Use: 4-Paved; 5-Ms. Bad Behavior

Forecast:  Paved graduated very impressively over this course and distance two runs back and then went north to beat the boys on the all-weather in the El Camino Real Derby, a race that produced subsequent stakes winner Blended Citizen.  Both races earned strong speed figures, so the daughter of Quality Road looks very much like a short price to continue her winning ways.  Ms. Bad Behavior is improving with racing and looms the one to fear most.  Her win in the China Doll over the local lawn was visually pleasing and today's extra furlong shouldn't bother her in the least.  These two stick out and we'll use both in our rolling exotics while preferring Paved on top.

To watch an expanded video analysis of this race, click here.

 

​​​​RACE 6: Post 2:25 PT. Grade: B

Use: 3-Heck Yeah; 4-Take the One O One

Forecast:  Take the One O One returned at least as good as he left and maybe better when winning a highly-rated entry-level allowance sprint last month, and on pure numbers he's a stick out over the multi-stakes winner Heck Yeah, who turns back from a route and returns to dirt.  Take the One O One has excellent early speed but will probably have some company early on; still, the son of Acclamation should be able to deal with the heat.  We'll use both in our rolling exotics and then press with Take the One O One on top.

To watch an expanded video analysis of this race, click here.

 

​​​RACE 7: Post 3:03 PT.  Grade: B

Use: 2-Mesut; 3-Sawyer’s Hill; 4-Tartini

Forecast:  A strong group of optional $40,000 claimers makes this one mile turf event a difficult challenge; best advice is to use as many as you can afford to.  The field figures to have a hot early pace and that should promote the chances of Mesut.  The son of Gio Ponti prefers to settle in mid pack and then produce a run; with good racing luck the Gaines-trained gelding seems capable of tagging the speed.  Sawyer's Hill seems likely to be the tear-away leader; he won at this level in early February, was claimed by Jacobson, and today returns for the same price after being off the track for two months.  If he runs back to last race, he'll be hard to catch no matter how fast the early splits are.  Tartini failed to duplicate his promising U.S. debut when failing to produce a rally in a slowly-run race last month; the pace flow should be much more to his liking with the switch to Rosario the Carava-trained gelding could easily bounce back.

To watch an expanded video analysis of this race, click here.

 

​​​​​RACE 8: Post 3:37 PT.  Grade: B

Use: 2-Conqueror; 3-Clever Royal; 5-Stone Hands; 10-Fast Munny

Forecast: The eighth race is a deeper than usual entry-level allowance race over seven furlongs.  Logically, Stone Hands should be tough to beat; the improving gelding earned a career top speed figure vs. similar foes in a six furlong affair when a closing second and today's extra furlong won't hurt at all.  An intriguing price chance (he's 8-1 on the morning line) is Fast Munny, away for more than two years but returning protected with a series of better-than-looked workouts for new trainer Mullins.  Drawn comfortably outside and with Rosario taking the call, the son of Munnings won his only start over this track and distance before being stopped on.  If he returns as well as he left, he'll be a major player.  Conqueror is fast on numbers and just won over this trip from a representative starter's allowance field.  From the high percentage Cerin barn, the Malibu Moon gelding could easily be this good.  We’ll also toss in on a ticket or two on Clever Royal, a first-off-the-claim play for Mulhall.  He’s shortening up, switching surfaces, and always has been partial to this main track.

To watch an expanded video analysis of this race, click here.

 

RACE 9: Post 4:12 PT.  Grade: X

Single: Justify

Forecast:  Justify has looked sensational in both of his victories and continues to turn heads with spectacular workouts.  Bolt d'Oro represents a much higher level of competition than he's face so far, but we're thinking the Baffert-trained son of Scat Daddy will be up to the task.  In a terrific edition of the Santa Anita Derby, we'll use Justify as a rolling exotic single while otherwise passing the race.

To watch an expanded video analysis of this race, click here.

 

​​​​​RACE 10: Post 4:50 PT.  Grade: B+

Use: 2-Sophie P; 6-Enola Gray

Forecast:  Enola Gray returns off a long layoff but you know she can fire fresh (she won her debut by 16 lengths) and she's also won four of five career starts over the Santa Anita turf course.  And if that weren't enough, she's unbeaten in a pair of two-turn races, most recently over this course and distance when winning the Wilshire Stakes in her most recent outing.  Her works indicate she's plenty fit.  Sophie P should be a big price (she's 12-1 on the morning line) but is worth using someplace on your ticket.  She makes her U.S. debut following a pair of nice handicap wins last fall overseas, and has been impressive in the morning for Cassidy.  She's a deep closer that should enjoy the extremely fast fractions that seems certain to be established.  Enola Gray clearly is the top pick but we'll have a ticket or two using Sophie P as a back-up.

To watch an expanded video analysis of this race, click here.

 

RACE 11: Post 5:22 PT.  Grade: X

Single: 3-Midnight Bisou

Forecast:  Midnight Bisou likely will be a popular rolling exotic single, and she should be, in the Santa Anita Oaks.  A winner of two of four career starts (and beaten a nose in the other two), the daughter of Midnight Lute stretched out successfully when winning the Santa Ysabel Stakes for fun last month and nothing more, really, will be needed to score again.  She offers no value at 6/5 on the morning line so we'll pass the race other than to use her as a short price rolling exotic single.

To watch an expanded video analysis of this race, click here.

 

​​​​​RACE 12: Post 5:52 PT.  Grade: B+

Use: 2-Pantsonfire; 7-The Tulip; 8-Haichi

Forecast:  Hachi makes her U.S. debut for Mandella in a second-level allowance race and should out class her rivals based on her strong Chilean form that shows several stakes wins and Group-1 placings.  She's been impressive in the morning to indicate she's plenty fit and with Castellano aboard should be along in plenty of time with any kind of decent racing luck.  Pantsonfire is in good form for Baltas and seems the best of the local contingent along with The Tulip, who is progressing nicely as she gets further acclimated and should at least hit the board.  Let's use all three in our rolling exotics and then press with extra tickets keying Hachi.

To watch an expanded video analysis of this race, click here.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategy for Saturday, April 7, 2018

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