Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies for Friday, April 6, 2018

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST).  For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.

SANTA ANITA

Friday, April 6, 2018

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RACE 1: Post 12:00 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 1-Beauty Divine; 4-Chalky; 8-You Missed It

Forecast: You Missed It has been away since last May but if she returns as well as she left the O’Neill-trained filly should be more than capable of handling this older maiden filly and mare field.  Graded stakes placed over this course in 2017, the daughter of Lookin At Lucky likely will settle in mid-pack and then produce her run.  Beauty Devine removes blinkers (love that angle), lands the good rail, and may be the controlling speed in her first try around two-turns.  Chalky retains Prat and should improve at this longer trip.  We’ll use all three in our rolling exotics and then press a bit keying You Missed It on top.

 

​​RACE 2: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: B+

Use: 1-Lontani; 6-Most Amusing

Forecast: Baffert has two nice first-timers in this abbreviated sprint for maiden 3-year-olds, and we’ll use both in rolling exotic play while preferring Most Amusing on top.  The son of Malibu Moon has done everything right in the a.m., lands the cozy outside post, and looks like a real runner.  Lontani has some ability as well and is worth including on a ticket or two.

 

​​RACE 3: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B+

Use: 1-Restrainedvengence; 3-Colosi

Forecast:  Colosi is strong on numbers and is a proven commodity over the Hillside course.  A good third in the Baffle Stakes under these conditions in February, the City Zip gelding tackles easier today and is the likely choice and one to beat.  Restrainedvengence returns off a layoff and will be dangerous if cranked up.  A winner two-turning over this course as a two-year-old, speedy gelding might find himself as the controlling speed in a race that seems to lack zip.  He’ll be the better price of the two, so we’ll prefer him on top while using both in our rolling exotics.

 

​​​RACE 4: Post: 1:30 PT. Grade: C+

Use:  2-Mercer Island; 3-General Ike; 5-Out of Patience

Forecast: This evenly-matched six-runner field requires a spread in rolling exotic play; we’ll try to get by using just three.  Mercer Island moves up a couple of notches after two straight scores in restricted claiming company; he’s a first-off-the-claim for Morey (powerful stats with this angle) and should draft into a perfect, second-flight, stalking position.  Elliott fits him like a glove.  Out of Patience got away with a very soft trip on the lead in his most recent win and took full advantage of it.  He’s facing more early heat today but in he’s a pro’s pro (13 career victories) and loves this main track.  General Ike, first off the claim for Hollendorfer, switches to the main track and stretches out.  He might be a tad suspect at this trip but if he can clear without pressure he’ll take this group a long way.

 

​​RACE 5: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: B

Use: 1-Twirling Apples; 5-Paddy Jean; 8-Subic Bay

Forecast: Twirling Apples drops to her lowest level ever, lands the rail, and shows up in a restricted claimer and should be forwardly placed throughout.  Her best can beat this field.  Paddy Jean is another dangerous class dropper with good early speed, and if she can clear the field without pressure she’ll take them a long way.  Subic Bay prefers patient handling and with the proper ride from the bug boy Espinoza the Mullins-trained mare will be heard from the late.  All three should be included in your rolling exotics; we’ll have a few extra tickets keying Twirling Apples on top.

 

​​​​RACE 6: Post 2:30 PT. Grade: B

Use: 3-Midnight Soot; 9-Astro Rider; 10-Sierra Echo; 12-Git On Your Pulpit

Forecast: This wide-open maiden claimer offers a number of possibilities, but we’re especially intrigued by Git On Your Pulpit, listed at 20-1 on the morning line.  The second-time starter broke slowly, steadily moved within range, and then kept to his task without being knocked about in a tougher maiden $50,000 affair last month.  He could easily produce a significant forward move with that bit of experience behind him and with an extra half-furlong to work with might spring a major surprise.  We’ll press with him on top but also include in our rolling exotics Midnight Soot (first time in a claimer); Astro Rider (quickest of the quick), and Sierra Echo (a closing second after a sluggish start vs. similar in his debut).

 

​​​RACE 7: Post 3:00 PT.  Grade: B

Use: 4-Rizzi’s Honors; 7-Tangled Up in Ju

Forecast: Tangled Up in Ju missed by a head in an open $25,000 claimer in her recent comeback but instead of being raised in class she drops two levels to a restricted (Nw-3) $16,000, not exactly a healthy sign.  She’s clearly the one to beat if she can repeat her last outing.  Rizzi’s Honors, a solid runner-up in a similar event last month, stretches out to her preferred sprint distance after earning a career top speed figure in her last outing.  With another forward move, she’ll be right there.  Both should be used in rolling exotic play.

 

​​​​​RACE 8: Post 3:30 PT.  Grade: X

Single: 1-Pacific Strike

Forecast: Pacific Strike has much in her favor in this nine furlong turf event for maiden sophomore fillies but probably won’t offer much value after being listed as the 8/5 morning line favorite.  She’s likely to enjoy a ground-saving trip from the rail under Nakatani, and in below par field for the level should be along in plenty of time as a short-price rolling exotic single.

 

 

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies for Friday, April 6, 2018

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