The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players. The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play. Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.
The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Top selection indicated in bold-face.
A=Highest degree of confidence.
B=Solid Play.
C=Least preferred, or pass.
X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.
DEL MAR
Thursday, August 10, 2017
RACE 1: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: C
Use: 1-Oh Newman; 3-Tiz Jolie; 4-Alex Rossi
Forecast: The opener is extremely difficult and we’re not planning on getting too involved. Our top three selections are a combined zero-for-20 lifetime over the Del Mar main track. Alex Rossi is in good form with speed figures that fit but has low percentage connections. He does have one good highly-rated race over this track (he finished second) so there’s hope. Tiz Jolie, second in his last pair and remaining above his claim level, should at least hit the board but always has preferred to run second or third rather than win. Oh Newman was claimed back by Puype and retains Prat; he exits a decent sprint and may try gate-to-wire tactics from the rail.
Video Analysis will resume Saturday, August 12, 2017
RACE 2: Post 2:35 PT. Grade: C
Use: 2-Comet Sixty Two; 4-Brookes All Mine; 6-Summer Lady
Forecast: Another tough puzzle; we’ll use three and hope to survive and advance. Comet Sixty Two is seeking ship-and-win money so you know she’s primed for a major effort. Four career wins to go along with 14 seconds and thirds lends to the theory that she’s not one to trust, but at this level she’s a solid fit for the always-potent Hess-Desormeaux team. Brookes All Mine, first off the re-claim by Ray Bell, is suspect at this distance but will take them as far as she can. Summer Lady stretches out again and should draft into a good stalking position. What she can do with that kind of trip remains to be seen; she’s always seemed to be a need-the-lead type.
RACE 3: Post 3:09 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 10-Vigorously Juan; 11-Clifton Beach
Forecast: Clifton Beach had been showing speed and weakening before his last race, then, after stumbling badly at the start to fall back, the Sadler-trained colt actually picked it up late and finished with interest. Maybe they’ll try to hold him up on purpose today and then try to tag the speed. Vigorously Juan is slow on numbers but finished an okay second in his recent comeback and may be able to produce a forward move. His best chance is to clear the field and then hang on. These are the two we’ll prefer but without any degree of confidence.
RACE 4: Post: 3:40 PT. Grade: B+
Single: 1-Cool Munnings
Forecast: Cool Munnings finally makes it to the races in the second half of her 3-year-old season after bringing $155,000 in the OBS April sale last year. She breezed impressively during the preview session but was stopped on; recently she has strung together a series of excellent workouts for D’Amato, whose maidens often outrun their morning drills. If she breaks running from the rail, the daughter of Munnings should be long gone at this abbreviated sprint trip.
RACE 5: Post 4:10 PT. Grade: C
Use: 1-Forbidden Command; 4-Nazareth; 5-Blooming Hannah
Forecast: Forbidden Command is a first-off-the-claim for Miyadi (20% with a flat-bet profit) following a nearly five length romp over bottom-rung competition in early June. It’s taken more than two months to get her back to the races, so her current condition is anybody’s guess, but if she has one more good one left she’ll handle this field. Nazareth is just 3-for-41 lifetime, but in her present form should at least hit the board. Blooming Hannah may be the most reliable of the group; first or second in six of 14 career starts, the Stute-trained mare exits tougher races and is a fit on figures.
RACE 6: Post 4:40 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 1-Twisted Rosie; 7-Ciao Luna; 9-Hold That Smile
Forecast: Hold That Smile, second in straight maiden company in both of her starts, shows up in a claimer today, not exactly a sign of confidence from the Callaghan barn. Perhaps the belief is that five furlongs is her absolutely limit and that when the distances increase, she’ll wind up cheap. Twisted Rosie has trained well enough to act against this bunch and Ciao Luna looks like a sneaky Bay Area invader for a clever outfit. Let’s use all three without any great conviction.
RACE 7: Post 5:10 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 3-Coils Gold; 9-The Street Fighter
Forecast: Coils Gold broke his maiden at first asking over the Del Mar main track with a career top number last year and a recent runner-up effort in a good race at Los Alamitos indicates he’s rounding back to his best form for Baffert. Two solid drills (see workout) over this track should have him fit and ready. The Street Fighter has plenty of talent but failed to leave cleanly in both of his career starts and hasn’t been out since May. Recent workouts indicate he’s spot on for Headley and if breaks well today he’ll be hard to beat. Let’s use both in rolling exotic play with very slight preference on top to Coils Gold.
RACE 8: Post 5:40 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 1-R Sunday Surprise; 9-Tangeline; 11-Battleground State
Forecast: Seven of the 11 runners exit the same race, the July 20 event won by Easy Song. R Sunday Surprise was given too much to do and rallied from last to fourth, beaten just over two lengths. Hopefully, from the rail, she can lay a little closer early on. Battleground State is stuck way outside but was second in the aforementioned event, and with just lifetime starts the Drysdale-trained filly has room for plenty of further improvement. Tangeline is a sneaky first time starter with a few drills that indicate ability. We suspect she’s better than her 20-1 morning line would indicate.
SARATOGA
Thursday, August 3, 2017
RACE 1: Post 1:00 ET. Grade: B
Use: 2-Scout’s Honor; 5-Small Fortune
RACE 2: Post 1:33 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 1-Hy Brasil; 3-Moon Over Montana; 5-Battle Ready
RACE 3: Post 2:07 ET. Grade: B+
Single: 4-Dooder
RACE 4: Post: 2:41 ET. Grade: b-
Use: 1-Consumerconfidence; 3-Chief Admiral
RACE 5: Post 3:15 ET. Grade: C
Use: 1-Summer House; 2-Pawley’s Express; 3-Swing and Sway
RACE 6: Post 3:59 ET. Grade: B+
Single: 2-Munchkin Money
RACE 7: Post 4:25 ET. Grade: B
Use: 4-Saratoga Heater; 7-Love That Jazz
RACE 8: Post 5:02 ET. Grade: B
Use: 1-Paz the Bourbon; 4-Lady Joan
RACE 9: Post 5:40 ET. Grade: B
Use: 2-Andretta; 9-Lulu’s Pom Pom
