The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players. The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play. Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.
The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Top selection indicated in bold-face.
A=Highest degree of confidence.
C=Least preferred, or pass.
X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.
Friday, October 6, 2017
RACE 1: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 1-Where’s the D; 5-Southern Treasure; 10-Herunbridledpower
Forecast: The opener is a bottom-rung claiming sprint for fillies and mares that requires a spread in rolling exotic play. Slight preference on top goes to Southern Treasure, second off the claim for Glatt and exiting a much tougher starter’s allowance sprint at Los Alamitos. The daughter of Southern Image knows where the wire is (she’s 8-for-19 lifetime) and should settle into an ideal second flight, stalking position. We’ll also toss in Herunbridledpower, a recent runaway winner vs. softer at Los Alamitos with a speed figure that makes her dangerous despite the slight class hike, and Where’s the D, a class dropper with competitive figures and with an excellent record over the Santa Anita main track.
RACE 2: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: B
Use: 6-Lori’s Attitude; 9-Paddy Jean
Forecast: High priced maiden claiming fillies and mares meet down the hill in the second race with two main contenders. Paddy Jean finally gets a chance to show what she can do in a sprint. This route-to-sprint angle always seems to work well over this course and distance and the Belvoir-trained filly has been knocking on the door with speed figures that fit well at this level. Lori’s Attitude shows up in a claimer in her first start since February and is strictly the one to beat. She ran well in her debut so she should fire fresh, and has prior form down the Hill that is good enough to beat this field. We’ll use both in our rolling exotics while slightly preferring Paddy Jean on top.
RACE 3: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: B
Use: 1-Count On Nikki; 5-Christy Jackson; 6-Purrfect of Course
Forecast: Purrfect of Course has done some good work in the morning for Mullins and seems properly spotted in this stronger-than-par bottom-rung maiden claimer for a good effort first crack out of the box. She certainly seems better than her morning line of 8-1 and deserves consideration both in the straight pool and in rolling exotic play at anywhere near that price. Christy Jackson adds blinkers for the first time while plummeting to the bottom and has several back figures that make her dangerous. Count On Nikki, a decent runner-up in her debut at Golden Gate Fields last month, has a right to produce a forward move for a barn that has superior stats with second time starters.
RACE 4: Post: 2:30 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Party Hostess; 8-Pomp and Party
Forecast: Pomp and Party just missed at 29-1 in a similar starter allowance affair at Del Mar and certainly won’t be that price today. In that late-August race the D’Amato-trained filly improved considerably off her debut maiden win last January and if she can produce another forward move the daughter of Parading will be the one to beat. Party Hostess adds blinkers for the first time, and if she leaves cleanly from the rail she’ll be in the thick of it throughout. Back sprinting and returning to the main track, the Hollendorfer-trained filly won over this track in game style in the summer and is likely better now than she was then. Let’s double the race in our rolling exotics while preferring Pomp and Party on top.
RACE 5: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 6-An Unusual Group; 8-Mangita; 10-Peach Cove
Forecast: The fifth race is a grass grab bag for $25,000 claiming fillies and mares. Use as many as you can afford to. Peach Cove gets the worst of the draw but drops to her lowest level ever and has a prior win over this course and distance. If she negotiates a decent trip, the Mandella-trained mare certainly should be capable of winning. An Unusual Group is another worth strong consideration; the Machowsky-trained mare looked good beating a similar field at Del Mar in mid-August, has trained steadily since, and retains Bejarano. She’s always been a real race mare (10 wins from 27 career starts); however she’s only 1-for-8 over the Santa Anita lawn. Mangita doesn’t win all that often but usually hits the board (four wins, 11 seconds and thirds) and gets a break in the weights with the switch to hot riding bug boy Roman. She’s always been most effective on or near the lead and in this race she’s likely to inherit a good stalking trip.
RACE 6: Post 3:30 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 1-Captivate; 5-Ziconic; 8-California Street
Forecast: Captivate, with only two career starts, has upside most of the others don’t, so we’ll give top billing to the son of Warrior’s Reward, who earned a powerful speed figure when third in a hot sprint at Del Mar in mid-August. With the classic two-sprints-and-a-stretch-out pattern, the Puype-trained 3-year-old adds blinkers, retains Prat, draws the good rail, and could be the controlling speed if sent from the bell. Small ticket players looking for a single should give this colt strong consideration. Ziconic is a nine-race maiden with six in the money finishes. His numbers aren’t bad, but at this stage he’s probably not one to trust. You may want to use him on a ticket or two as a saver. California Street was a distant but closing fourth in his debut, and while we’d prefer to see one more sprint on his resume the son of Street Boss has a chance to step forward and at least hit the board.
RACE 7: Post 4:00 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 8-All of a Sudden; 9-Dreamy Gal
Forecast: The featured seventh race is carded for state-bred entry-level sprinting fillies and mares. There are two solid contenders topped by Dreamy Gal, who failed at 4/5 at Del Mar in her most recent outing after a promising comeback in the Fleet Treat Stakes. Freshened since mid-August, the Mullins-trained filly retains Baze and looks capable of making amends against a field she’s more than capable of outrunning. All of a Sudden is a “must use” as well; she earned a career top number when second in the same race ‘Gal exits and there’s a likelihood that her improvement will continue with the return to the track where she broke her maiden.
RACE 8: Post 4:30 PT. Grade: B+
Single: 3-Be Mine
Forecast: Be Mine hasn’t been out since July, 2016, but she’s trained like she’s fit and ready at San Luis Rey Downs for D’Amato and completely outclasses this field based on her strong form in three graded stakes races last year. She’s never sprinted in her career but that shouldn’t be an issue; in fact she might really excel over this downhill turf course. Prat knows her well and should have the daughter of Twirling Candy within striking range every step of the way. At 5/2 on the morning line she’s a strong straight play and rolling exotic single.