The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players. The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play. Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.
Top selection indicated in bold-face.
A=Highest degree of confidence.
C=Least preferred, or pass.
X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.
Thursday, November 3, 2016
RACE 1: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B
Single: 7-Cape Wolfe
Big class dropper Cape Wolfe, a non-winner in the U.S. since being imported from Ireland, has back figures that are more than good enough to win and in this league may have found his friends. His recent workouts have been especially sharp, so we’re expecting this D’Amato-trained gelding to settle early and then produce a winning late bid. Let’s make him a straight play and rolling exotic single.
RACE 2: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 6-Mistressofthenight; 7-Sandy’s Surprise; 8-Czarina
Maiden juvenile fillies meet over a middle distance in the second race. Sandy’s Surprise is improving with racing and has the two-sprint-and-a-stretch-out pattern than we like so much. She’s certainly bred to improve routing, the O’Neill barn is solid with the sprint-to-route angle, and this daughter of Drosselmeyer should be on or near the lead throughout. Czarina, in the money in both of her career starts but slower on figures that ‘Surprise, is worth using for the Baffert-Prat team (powerful stats with a small sample). The daughter of Bernardini produced a significant forward move between her first and second starts and is likely to progress again today. Mistressofthenight was out of her element in the Chandelier S.-G1 as a maiden but gets back to reality today. The Baltas-trained filly continues to impress in the morning and should show her best stuff today. Preference on top goes to Sandy’s Surprise but we’ll include all three in our rolling exotics.
RACE 3: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 4-The All Button; 6-Sorry Erik
The Pick-6 begins with the third race, a starter’s optional claimer for two year olds at a mile on the main track. The All Button earned a career top speed figure when third in a quick recent sprint and his kind of zip should put him on the lead in this softer spot. The son of Into Mischief might be considered a tad suspect around two turns but in a field lacking in effective late speed he might be able to stick it out. Sorry Erik broke his maiden for a tag at this distance two runs back at Del Mar and then was out of his element in the Zuma Beach Stakes on turf. The O’Neill-trained colt fits much better in this company and on pure numbers he’s a major player off his best race. We’ll include both in our rolling exotics while giving preference on top to The All Button.
RACE 4: Post: 2:30 PT. Grade: C
Use: 2-Back Beauty; 3-Revenue Virginius; 4-Little Big Lovely
This downhill turf scramble looks wide open and requires a spread in rolling exotic play. We’ll go three-deep and hope that’s enough. Back Beauty seeks her fourth straight win but is unproven on grass and she earned just a moderate number in her most recent victory at Los Alamitos. However, she remains well above her claim level for O’Neill, retains Arroyo, and looks on paper to be the controlling speed. Revenue Virginius, another O’Neill entrant, returns to her claim level, switches to Prat, and can be expected to receive the patient ride she requires. She’s won over this course in the past and is a fit on numbers. Little Bit Lovely is another with a prior win down the hill and this two-level drop in class should allow her to regain her best form. Let’s toss her in as well.
RACE 5: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: C
Use: 3-Shakeitupbetty; 4-Audra; 6-Altaira
The fifth race is another difficult affair, this one for bottom-rung claiming fillies and mares. Shakeitupbetty may be as good as any; the Pederson-trained mare always is a late threat, though she usually has to settle for secondary awards. Desormeaux stays aboard and should have her doing her best work in the final furlong. Altaira looked good winning at this level two runs back but was in too tough when raised three notches on the class ladder after a claim by low profile connections. She’s back where she belongs today and could be a late threat at this extended sprint distance. Audra, first off the claim for a low percentage outfit, finished third in the same race Shakeitupbetty exits and has won twice over this track in the past. At 8-1 on the morning she offers a bit of value in what appears to be an inscrutable affair.
RACE 6: Post 3:30 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 7-Imperative; 8-Magic Mark
Magic Mark finished second in the Johnston Stakes at Los Alamitos in his most recent outing in what was a fast, highly-rated race and he’s always been partial to the Santa Anita main track, so we expect a similar effort today. The Ellis-trained gelding likes the front end but can stalk and pounce if asked, so Van Dyke can play it by ear from the outside post. At 7/2 on the morning line he offers a bit of value in the straight pool. We’ll also use in our rolling exotics Imperative, who has seen nothing but graded stakes competition since 2014 and finally gets some class relief in this overnight stakes. The blinkers come off and he switches to Desormeaux, but a zero-for-13 lifetime record over the Santa Anita main track is hard to ignore. Still, the Baltas-trained gelding is worth including in rolling exotic play, but we’ll prefer Magic Mark on top.
RACE 7: Post 4:00 PT. Grade: B
Use: 2-Feldini; 4-Undeniable U; 8-Champagne Charley
The seventh race is a better-than-par first level allowance turf miler restricted to 3-year-olds. Champagne Charley, a winner of his only outing in a strong maiden race at Chantilly in France last mark, makes his U.S. debut for high percentage connections and may very well out class this field. The work tab for Callaghan looks healthy and with Dettori taking the mount this gelding looks extremely well-meant. Undeniable U makes his first start since June for Baffert (24% with layoffs) and has trained solidly at Los Alamitos to give indication that he’s fit enough for a good effort. The son of Red Giant is solid on numbers and is back with win-rider Espinoza. Feldini was a sharp maiden winner at Del Mar two races back and then lost his best chance when breaking slowly in a similar non-winners of two turf event last month. A bullet work at San Luis Rey Downs since his last outing is a positive sign and from his good inside post the son of Twirling Candy should draft into an ideal stalking spot. We’ll prefer Champagne Charley on top but use all three in our rolling exotics.
RACE 8: Post 4:30 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 1-Let Me Flatter You; 2-Warrioress; 11-Pistol Packin Rose
The finale is maiden claiming extended sprint for juvenile fillies. Pistol Packin Rose was far back in her only outing but against infinitely better competition; she’s worked like a much better type since and seems highly likely to improve big time against this group. With Prat taking the call, the O’Neill-trained daughter of First Defense seems solid. Let Me Flatter You sold for a ham sandwich as a yearling but has some okay works at San Luis Rey Downs and attracts Bejarano. The rail is no bargain but if she can run at all she’ll be a threat. Warrioress, in the money in both of her starts but a beaten favorite in each, might not one to trust but she’s a fit on numbers and really won’t have to improve much to win.