The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players. The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play. Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.
The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Top selection indicated in bold-face.
A=Highest degree of confidence.
C=Least preferred, or pass.
X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.
Monday, October 9, 2017
RACE 1: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: C
Use: 7-Airlite; 10-Curly’s Waterfront; 11-Ky. Colonel
Forecast: The opener is a grass grab bag in which nothing would surprise. We’ll go with three class droppers but not with any degree of confidence. Ky. Colonel shows up in a claimer for the first time and should improve considerably for the Mandella-Smith team. With the rail at the zero setting his extreme outside draw shouldn’t be much of an issue. Mandella’s other entrant is Airlite, a son of Super Saver who adds blinkers for the first time and also sports the first-time-in-a-claimer angle. He should be running on late. Curley’s Waterfront chased tougher in his comeback at Del Mar in August and is realistically spotted today. His only lifetime victory was accomplished over this course and distance.
RACE 2: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 1-Coronado Cool; 2-Besides the Point; 7-Stir Fry
Forecast: This restricted (nw-2) $12,500 claiming sprint for 3-year-old fillies looks somewhat treacherous. Besides the Point seems as good as any; the Hess-trained daughter of Concord Point has won three races from just eight career starts and drops to her lowest level ever while turning back from a two-turn grass router. She’s also won two of four over the Santa Anita main track, so at 9/2 on the morning line she may offer a bit of value. Coronado Cool finished third at 6/5 at Los Alamitos last month and now is just 1-for-16 in her career, and her only win was accomplished on grass. Still, she’s a fit on figures and should at least hit the board. Stir Fry has been away for nearly 15 months and returns cheap, not exactly a sign of confidence for Spawr. First or second in four of five career starts over the Santa Anita main track, the daughter of Papa Clem has to be respected based on last year’s form but may not be one to trust.
RACE 3: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 3-Mis Viola; 6-Hold That Smile; 8-We Will Re Joyce
Forecast: The third race is another challenging event, a starter optional claiming sprint for juvenile fillies. Mis Viola finished second as the favorite in a similar spot at Del Mar last month but didn’t run badly and likely has some improvement in her. The O’Neill-trained daughter of Violence beats these with a repeat of her race before last. Hold That Smile, third in the same race Mis Viola exits, sports a healthy work pattern in the interim and has back figures that make her dangerous. We Will Re Joyce crushed a soft maiden claiming field at Los Alamitos with a big figure; however, she may be hard pressed to repeat that performance at this level. We’ll toss her in on a ticket or two.
RACE 4: Post: 2:00 PT. Grade: B
Use: 1-Yes Yes Yes; 9-General Ike; 10-Unusual Meeting
Forecast: $40,000 claimers tackle the Hillside Turf Course in the Pick-6 lid-lifter. Yes Yes Yes shortens to a sprint (one of our favorite angles) and may be most effective at this trip. He makes a major jockey switch to Prat in his first outing since July and should fire a big shot fresh. If he can negotiate a decent trip from the rail, the Carava-trained gelding will be a major factor. General Ike remains above his claim level for Glatt and should thoroughly enjoy this course and distance. His only prior turf race was quite good (a runner-up effort at Churchill Downs) and we’re projecting the Quiet American gelding to draft into an ideal stalking position. Unusual Meeting ran well on this turf course during the summer meeting, turns back to a sprint, and always gives his best. At 8-1 on the morning line he’s worth using somewhere.
RACE 5: Post 2:32 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 5-Talent Scout; 7-Paddock Pick; 8-Cool Bobby
Forecast: Paddock Pick has the benefit of a prior run, a better than looked fifth place effort (beaten less than three lengths) after a slow start in a decent affair at Del Mar. A bullet five-furlong workout over the Santa Anita main track since that race indicates he’s headed in the right direction. Let’s give him a slight edge on top. Cool Bobby brought $575,500 as a yearling and seems ready for a solid effort first crack out of the box. The son of Shanghai Bobby has done some good work in the morning for Eurton, seems fit enough, and may offer a bit of value at 6-1 on the morning line. Talent Scout hast trained like he can run some as well, though we suspect he’ll eventually do his best work over a distance of ground. In an open fray, he’s worth including.
RACE 6: Post 3:04 PT. Grade: B
Use: 6-Count Alexander; 8-My Boy Jack
Forecast: Count Alexander won at first asking in very impressive fashion at Woodbine in August and then was a respectable fourth in the Summer Stakes-G2 the following month. The son of Scat Daddy has a good stalking style and should be prominent throughout and have every chance. My Boy Jack is still a maiden after four starts but ran quite well to be second in the Del Mar Juvenile Turf last month with a career top figure and has trained well since. With the switch to Desormeaux, the son of Creative Cause should be dangerous in the final furlong. Let’s try to get past this race using just these two.
RACE 7: Post 3:36 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 7-Goncharova; 11-Willows Babe
Forecast: Willows Babe looks well spotted in this maiden $30,000 claiming sprint for juvenile fillies. The daughter of Gemologist failed at even money and was a voided claim in her last start at Del Mar, but has trained steadily since, adds blinkers, retains Bejarano, and looks capable of producing the last run. Goncharova also is worth including in rolling exotic play; the Street Sense filly has the route-to-sprint, turf-to-dirt, maiden-to-maiden claimer angles going for her and has the kind of speed that should be very effective against this soft company.
RACE 8: Post 4:07 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 3-Ucanthankmelater; 7-Go Ghetto; 8-Special Story
Forecast: Restricted $12,500 claimers meet over a middle distance in a competitive affair in the eighth race. Ucanthankmelater won at Los Alamitos in decent fashion and has two prior victories over the Santa Anita main track. Baze stays aboard and will have this Hard Spun gelding bearing down in the final furlong. Special Story, first off the claim for Glatt (strong stats with this angle), drops a notch and stretches out for the first time. A bullet six furlong workout over this track last month should have him on edge. Go Ghetto broke his maiden vs. bottom-rungers at Del Mar in his last outing and earned a fairly decent number in doing so. The Bernardini gelding won’t need to improve much to score right back.
RACE 9: Post 4:38 PT. Grade: B
Use: 2-Klosters; 11-Fatale Bere; 12-Multiplayer
Forecast: Fatale Bere is an interesting European invader and may outclass this band of juvenile fillies over a mile on turf. A winner of her first two starts in France and then a respectable third in a listed stakes, she arrives fit and ready for Powell and gets Lasix and Desormeaux. Klosters and Multiplayer finished third and fourth, respectively, in the Juvenile Fillies Turf at Del Mar last month, with both finishing strongly and with purpose. The former rallied from far back but was simply given too much to do, while latter is a Giant’s Causeway filly with a good late kick and plenty of room for development.