Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies for Oct. 13, 2017

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.

SANTA ANITA

Friday, October 13, 2017

RACE 1: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: C

Use: 2-Dukes Up; 6-To the Bar

Forecast: The Friday opener likely will be won by one of two sharp class droppers – Dukes Up or To the Bar – but under the circumstance neither one can be considered trustworthy. Dukes Up just won a decent $50,000 starter’s allowance main track miler at Del Mar but clearly is for sale today and thus his current condition must be questioned. A prior win over this track and distance is a positive factor, but that performance was way back in January. There’s not much value to be found at 8/5 on the morning line, either. To the Bar is a tad less suspicious; the Ellis-trained gelding also has won over this main track in the past but his current form isn’t much and it would appear the connections are simply being realistic. In a race that might be best left alone, you can use both in rolling exotic play and hope that one or both have at least one good left, or simply pass the race.

 

​​RACE 2: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: B

Use: 1-Exuberance; 4-Dr. Ann

Forecast: Exuberance has the classic two-sprints-and-stretch-out pattern with rising speed figures and a good inside post. She’s also exiting a restricted stakes race (a solid third place effort at Los Alamitos) and returns to the maiden ranks today with the top speed figure in the field. She’s 9/5 on the morning line and likely to go lower. Dr. Ann, a distant third behind Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies favorite Moonshine Memories in her debut sprinting at Del Mar in mid-August, has the pedigree to handle this two-turn trip, and if she improves as expected she can at least complete the exacta. We’ll use both in our rolling exotics and then press with Exuberance on extra tickets.

​RACE 3: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 1-Cordiality; 2-How Unusual; 6-Earring

Forecast: We’ll triple the third race, the first leg of the Pick-6. How Unusual, in the money in her last three and overdue for a win, returns to her favorite turf course, retains Nakatani, and seems capable of producing the last run, so we’ll put her slightly on top. Earring is a useful Eastern invader from the Proctor barn and is a strong fit on numbers. She has a good stalking style and should be comfortably placed in a race that projects to be slowly run early. Cordiality might make the running from her inside draw; the daughter of Papa Clem moves up a level after handling an entry-level field in gate-to-wire fashion at Del Mar and should enjoy a similar trip today. She has numbers that make her dangerous and her only prior start over the Santa Anita turf course – a downhill sprint in June – resulted in a sharp win vs. state-bred foes.

 

​​​​RACE 4: Post: 2:30 PT. Grade: C

Use: 4-Stylitude; 5-Sauce On Side

Forecast: Stylitude is improving with experience and returns to the claiming ranks where her numbers say she belongs, but she’s 8/5 on the morning line and probably will go closer to even money for the Desormeaux brothers. Sauce On Side, third in the same race Stylitude exits, shows up in a claimer for the first time and may be the most dangerous of the closing types. We’ll use both in rolling exotic play but otherwise sit it out.

 

​​RACE 5: Post 3:01 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 2-Pleasant as Pie; 3-Warm Endowment; 5-Wedding Blush

Forecast: Warm Endowment may be as good as any in this downhill grass grab bag for $40,000 claiming fillies and mares. She remains above her claim level for Moger while turning back from a route, and she shows a prior win over this course and distance. Look for her to be running on strongly late. Wedding Blush comes off a solid runner-up effort over five furlongs on turf at Del Mar; a repeat of that race charts very well in this affair. Baze should have her in an ideal pace-stalking position in a race without a whole lot of zip. Pleasant as Pie is a deep closer that needs help up front and may not get it today. However, she’s a perfect one-for-one on this course so we’ll toss her in on a ticket or two as a saver.

 

​​​​RACE 6: Post 3:31 PT. Grade: X

Single: Miss Ricochet

Forecast: Miss Ricochet has much in her favor in this extended main track sprint for maiden fillies and mares and seems certain to be a short price favorite. Beaten less than a length in a similar affair at Del Mar with a very strong speed figure, the daughter of Colonel John adds blinkers today in her second start off a layoff in just her third career start. She’s a logical rolling exotic single.

​​RACE 7: Post 4:01 PT.  Grade: B-

Use: 1-Secret Touch; 5-Trustworthy; 6-Desert General

Forecast: This starter’s allowance main track middle distance event requires a spread in rolling exotic play. Trustworthy got burned up on the pace and weakened late in a similar event at Del Mar but with patient handling today could easily get back on the winning track. The lightly raced son of Smart Strike has plenty of room for improvement, has numbers that fit, and boasts a healthy work pattern at San Luis Rey Downs since raced. Secret Touch is the one to fear most; the Eurton-trained gelding is fast on figures and project to enjoy a perfect, ground-saving trip from the rail. Desert General also is worth considering; his only prior win came over the Santa Anita main track and he was nosed out in a similar starter’s affair at Del Mar last month. A bullet four-furlong workout last week indicates he remains on edge.

 

​​​​RACE 8: Post 4:31 PT.  Grade: B

Use: 1-Air On Fire; 8-Milhaud

Forecast: Mandella holds the aces here. Milhaud seems the solid choice in the nightcap, a maiden $50,000 claiming sprint down the hill. In the money in his last three but dropping to a realistic level, the 5-year-old gelding exits a productive straight maiden turf sprint at Del Mar, retains Prat, and looks on paper to be the quickest of the quick. Stablemate Air On Fire is worth using as well; this will be his first try on turf and his first in a claimer, and appears to have found his proper level after exiting a very fast straight maiden affair in his local debut. Bejarano should have him in a good stalking position throughout.

 

 

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies for Oct. 13, 2017

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