The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players. The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play. Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.
Top selection indicated in bold-face.
A=Highest degree of confidence.
C=Least preferred, or pass.
X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.
Friday, October 14, 2016
RACE 1: Post: 12:55 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 5-Tiz Rae Anna; 7-Loose
RACE 2: Post 1:28 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 1-Cordero; 2-Seize; 4-Blackout
RACE 3: Post 2:01 ET. Grade: B
Use: 1a-Chickaletta; 6-Lady Luciano
RACE 4: Post 2:34 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Queen of Spades; 10-Brass Cat
RACE 5: Post 3:07 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Curious Cal; 3-John's Island
RACE 6: Post 3:40 ET. Grade: B
Use: 6-Ametrine; 9-Queenofthechannel
RACE 7: Post 4:13 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Smartly Agree; 4-Mastic; 7-Tale for Ruby
RACE 8: Post 4:46 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Glorious Empire; 8-Vision's Perfect; 1-Heaven's Runway
RACE 9: Post 5:19 ET. Grade: B+
Single: 1-Clutch Cargo
Friday, October 14, 2016
RACE 1: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B
Use: 2-Summertime Mischief; 3-Dust It
The opener is carded for maiden claiming fillies and mares over a mile on turf and looks like an ideal spot for Dust It to earn her diploma. This will be her first start for a tag and the Baltas-trained filly should produce a forward move in her second start since arriving from Florida. She switches to Bejarano and should draft into an ideal pace-stalking spot. Summertimemischief tries turf for the first time and may attempt gate-to-wire tactics. She’s a strong fit on numbers so if she can transfer her main track form to the grass she’ll be right there. Let’s give Dust It a slight edge on top but use both in our rolling exotics.
RACE 2: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: B
Use: 1-Tengas Ransom; 3-Eight Spokes
Eight Spokes has run well over this main track in the past and seems likely to improve on his Del Mar form, which wasn’t bad but not quite up to his best stuff. Bejarano stays aboard for Puype and should have this gelding doing his best work late. Tengas Ransom, never worse than second in four career starts over the local main track, figures to be prominent throughout in a race without a whole lot of zip. If he can shake loose early he could be tough to run down late. Both should be included in rolling exotic play.
RACE 3: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 2-Space Cadet; 7-Tinian
Space Cadet isn’t much but has little to beat in the Pick-6 lid-lifter, a bottom-rung maiden claiming mile affair for fillies and mares. Her one prior route attempt wasn’t bad and she’s back with Bejarano, who knows her well. Against this modest group the daughter of U S Ranger could be on the lead throughout. Tinian stretches out for the first time and her sprint numbers – if duplicated around two turns – makes her very competitive. She’s worth tossing in.
RACE 4: Post: 2:30 PT. Grade: B
Use: 6-Sid the Squid; 8-Reconciling
Sid the Squid finished a distant second in a fast, highly-rated race for the level while earning a speed figure that is more than good enough to win at this level. She’s not a quick sort but should be heard from in the final furlong under Desormeaux. Reconciling hails from a barn that rarely wins with debut runners but this daughter of Smoke Glacken is bred for much speed and has trained like she has more than her fair share. At 8-1 on the morning she’s worth using as a saver or a back-up.
RACE 5: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: B
Use: 3-Itsinthepost; 6-Hobbits Hero
In a field without much pace, Hobbits Hero should have every chance to make the running and keep on going, just as he did when earning a career top speed figure in winning a first-level allowance affair over a mile at Del Mar in his last start. The son of Aragorn absolutely adores the Santa Anita turf course (he’s won seven of 11 career starts here) and nine furlongs is within his range. Itsinthepost seems to lack a winning punch – he’s 2-for-19 lifetime – but the Mullins-trained gelding can turn it on late and if a decent pace materializes he’ll be dangerous in the final furlong. Hobbits Hero gets top billing but both should be used in rolling exotic play.
RACE 6: Post 3:30 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 1-Generous Pour; 3-Conquest So True; 4-Marriedtotheminister
Generous Pour stretches out for the first time, certainly has the pedigree to enjoy the extra distance, and looks primed for a huge effort. Her win two races back earned a sharp number and a troubled trip in her most recent start can be forgiven. Prat stays aboard the Carava-trained filly, who with only three career starts and room for plenty of improvement. Marriedtotheminister is winless in six career starts over the Santa Anita main track but she usually gets a piece of it. Bejarano should have her on or near the lead throughout. Conquest So True is a fit on numbers and has several prior outings that make her dangerous at this level. Strong preference goes to Generous Pour but all three are worth some consideration in the exotics.
RACE 7: Post 4:00 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 5-Curlin Rules; 6-Barhanpour; 7-Atomic Rule
The featured seventh race is a split of the fifth race, a second-level allowance event that looks fairly wide open. Curlin Rules tried turf for the first time at Del Mar and took his field gate-to-wire from an extreme outside post while earning a career top number. He moves up a notch on the class scale and must deal with an extra furlong but the Sadler-trained colt could easily be up to the task. Barhanpour won his U.S. debut in fine style, rallying into the teeth of slow fractions to be up in time with an excellent display of late speed. He has to be respected right back. Atomic Rules, first off the claim for Baltas (21%), is a strong fit on figures and should draft into a good second flight, stalking spot. A winner of nine career races, the veteran son of Tribal Rule always gives his best.
RACE 8: Post 4:30 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 7-Miss Bliss; 8-Miss Big Stuff
The nightcap is a $16,000 restricted (nw-3) claiming sprint for fillies and mares. Miss Big Stuff plummets to her lowest level ever, switches to Desormeaux, has won over this track in the past, and will be tough to catch if she has one good one left. Miss Bliss returns to her claim level and a repeat of her race before last, a solid runner-up over this track during the summer meeting, charts very well in this spot. The switch to Prat is another plus. We’ll try to get by in our rolling exotics using just these two.