Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies for October 22, 2016

USER GUIDELINES

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.

BELMONT PARK

​Saturday, October 22, 2016​

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RACE 1: Post: 12:25 ET. Grade: B

Use: 2-Deuces High; 7-Born for a Storm

RACE 2: Post 12:55 ET. Grade: B

Use: 4-Lulu's Pom Pom; 7-Divine Cause

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RACE 3: Post 1:28 ET. Grade: X

Single: 3-Quezon

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RACE 4: Post 2:01 ET. Grade: X

Single: 2-Weekend Hideaway

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RACE 5: Post 2:34 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 1-Iron Mizz; 5-Tainted Angel; 9-Bonita Bianca

RACE 6: Post 3:07 ET. Grade: C+

Use: 1-Kharafa; 8-Tapitation; 9-King Kreesa

RACE 7: Post 3:40 ET.  Grade: B

Use: 4-Gold for the King; 6-Macho Miah

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RACE 8: Post 4:13 ET.  Grade: B

Use: 1-Bar of Gold; 5-Jules N Rome

RACE 9: Post 4:46 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 5-Neck of the Moon; 11-The Tea Cups; 12-Fourstar Crook

RACE 10: Post 5:19 ET.  Grade: B-

Use: 1-Wake Up in Malibu; 2-Governor Malibu; 6-Royal Posse

RACE 11: Post 5:52.  Grade: B+

Single: 6-Discreet Image

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​SANTA ANITA 

Saturday, October 22, 2016​

RACE 1: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: C+

Use: 3-Frandontjudge; 4-Individual Dream

 

The Saturday opener is carded for bottom-rung older sprinting fillies and mares; we’ll use two in our rolling exotics but not with any great deal of enthusiasm. Frandontjudge was nosed out in a similar event at Los Alamitos last month and if she can turn in two alike – never one of her strong suits – the daughter of Benchmark will be tough once again.  She has a prior win over this track and figures to be prominent throughout.  Individual Dream has low profile connections but won at this level over this course and distance two races back and in fact has finished first in seven of fourteen career starts.  She has her issues but always must be respected.

 

 

​RACE 2: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 3-Deep Consideration; 5-Indygo Bo

 

This $25,000 middle distance claimer drew six runners; we’ll try to advance by doubling the race.  Indygo Bo returns to his claim level, retains Desormeaux, and looks capable of producing the last run.  He’s fast enough on pure numbers to win and should draft into a comfortable second flight spot.  Deep Consideration, third in the same starter’s allowance race that ‘Bo exits at Los Alamitos, always has preferred to run second or third rather than win but his record over the Santa Anita main track is quite good and the son of Super Saver generally runs well for this rider.  We’ll give Indygo Bo a slight edge on top and have an extra ticket or two with him in the win pool.

 

 

RACE 3: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: B+

Use: 1-Skye Diamonds; 3-Star of Munster

 

The third race is a $50,000 claiming sprint restricted to 3-year-old fillies.  Skye Diamonds is a first-off-the-claim play for a barn that excels with this angle, so we’re expecting the daughter of First Dude to produce a forward move in her first start since late August.  Lightly-raced and with speed figures that fit, the Spawr-trained filly has the style that generally works well at this extended sprint distance.  Star of Munster loves the Santa Anita main track and could regain her best form with this drop in class and the return to dirt.  We’ll include both in our rolling exotics while preferring Skye Diamonds on top.

 

 

​​RACE 4: Post: 2:00 PT. Grade: B

Use: 1-Richard’s Boy; 3-Boozer

 

Richard’s Boy finished an excellent second in a division of the Eddie D. Stakes over this course and distance last month and a similar effort in this race restricted to California-bred runners should be good enough.  He’s catching a much softer pace scenario today and projects to be on or near the lead throughout.  Boozer is a tough, veteran gelding with a superior record over the Hillside course (first or second in 10 of 15 career starts).  The son of Unusual Heat was a strong runner-up in the other division of the Eddie D. and won’t have to improve much to win.  Preference on top goes to Richard’s Boy but both should be used in rolling exotic play.

 

 

RACE 5: Post 2:30 PT.  Grade: X

Single: 4-Mastery

 

Mastery has done everything in the a.m. like a high quality colt and his debut has long been anticipated.  The Baffert-trained son of Candy Ride has worked in company with a few stakes winning stable mates and has more than held his own, so if he performs up to standard he’ll handle this task.  However, at 4/5 on the morning line, there’s no value to be had, so let’s use him as a rolling exotic single but otherwise pass the race.

 

 

​​RACE 6: Post 3:00 PT.  Grade: B

Use:  2-Irap; 6-South Americain; 10-Highly Acclaimed

 

The sixth race appears to be a wide open grass grab bag for maiden two-year-olds, so best advice is to use as many as you can afford to.  Highly Acclaimed failed to run to his works in a pair of races at Del Mar but he’s a first-time gelding bred to excel on grass, so he could be much better than shown.  The son of Acclamation remains protected in straight maiden company by Gaines in a sign of confidence, so let’s give him one more chance.  Irap and South Americain are first-timers each with a decent series of drills, so both are worth including as well.  The former brought $300,000 as the OBS March Sale where he breezed a furlong in 10 1/5 seconds while the latter sports a bullet blowout over the training track earlier this month that catches the eye.

 

 

​RACE 7: Post 3:30 PT.  Grade: C+

Use: 3-Adair; 8-Swiss Cheese

 

Adair has a first-off-the-claim angle for a low percentage outfit and has been away since mid-July, so while he’s more than good enough to beat this field with his best effort – and his Santa Anita main track record is outstanding – he can’t be backed with a high degree of confidence.  However, we have to use him.  Swiss Cheese lands the cozy outside post, has solid recent form for Hess, has won over this track in the past, and is reunited with Perez, who was aboard when the son of Swiss Yodeler scored nicely two runs back.  We’ll use both in our rolling exotics while giving Swiss Cheese the edge on top.

 

 

​​​RACE 8: Post 4:00 PT.  Grade:  B

Use: 1-Moonlight Drive; 4-Bottle Rocket

 

The eighth race is another Hillside turf scramble. Moonlight Drive shortens to a sprint for the first time since arriving in the States and the turn back in trip could wake him up.  The Baffert-trained colt hasn’t been punching it in, but he could be very dangerous from off the pace today, especially against this lesser field.  Bottle Rocket may have been in a tad too tough in the second division of the Eddie D. Stakes last month but wasn’t beaten badly and has room to improve in this somewhat softer spot.  Let’s use these two while pressing a bit with Moonlight Drive on top.

 

 

RACE 9: Post 4:30 PT.  Grade: C+

Use: 1-Lucky Days Ahead; 6-Runbrorun

 

The finale is a bottom-rung maiden claimer without much depth.  Lucky Days Ahead has finished in the money in his last three starts but he’s slow on pure numbers.  A little will go a long way in this affair, so we’ll use him.  Runbrorun actually crossed the wire first in race at Los Alamitos last month but was disqualified for drifting out.  He’s a first-time gelding adding blinkers and looks quick enough to make the pace and keep on going.  We’ll double the race in our rolling exotics and then press with Runbrorun on top.

 

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies for October 22, 2016

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