The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players. The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play. Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.
Top selection indicated in bold-face.
A=Highest degree of confidence.
C=Least preferred, or pass.
X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.
Sunday, October 23, 2016
RACE 1: Post: 12:55 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Shimmering Moon; 3-Tough Old Bird
RACE 2: Post 1:28 ET. Grade: C
Use: 4-Hold Me Down; 6-Resilient One; 9-Flick of an Eye
RACE 3: Post 2:01 ET. Grade: X
Single: 7-Bustin It
RACE 4: Post 2:34 ET. Grade: B
Single: 15-In It for the Gold
RACE 5: Post 3:07 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 2-Hunter O'Riley; 3-Midnight Hawk
RACE 6: Post 3:40 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Bombs Away; 3-Gypsum Johnny
RACE 7: Post 4:13 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 3-Isotherm; 4-Strike Midnight
RACE 8: Post 4:46 ET. Grade: B
Use: 1-Strike Charmer; 3-Roca Rojo; 7-Mexican Gold
RACE 9: Post 5:19 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 3-Preferrerd Outcome; 4-The Caretaker; 16-Carradine
Sunday, October 23, 2016
RACE 1: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 4-Paquita Coqueta; 6-Lily Pod
Lily Pod had a nightmarish trip when fourth in a similar spot at Del Mar last month and if she can secure a good trip today she can beat this field. The D’Amato-trained filly has good tactical speed and can win on the front end or as a stalker, so Gutierrez can play it by ear. There’s some value here at 7/2 on the morning line if you can get it. Paquita Coqueta, a strong runner-up in her debut in the same race Lily Pod exits, has every right to produce a forward move for the always-potent Prat/Mandella team and is the likely choice and one to beat. Both should be used in rolling exotic play; we’ll press a bit keying Lily Pod on top.
RACE 2: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B
Single: 3-Heat Me
Heat Me seeks her fourth straight win while stretching out to a mile, and while she’s unproven at the trip there’s really no reason she won’t be able to handle it. The Glatt-trained filly exits a series of fast sprints and could easily inherit the role as the controlling speed. Talamo stays aboard and knows her well. She’s 2-1 on the morning line and may go lower, so her best value might come as a single in rolling exotic play.
RACE 3: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: X
Single: 5-American Gal
American Gal won a sizzler in her debut at Del Mar and the runner-up and third place finishers were next-out winners, verifying the strength of the race. She’s trained well since that highly-rated score for Baffert and should have little difficulty coming right back to win again. However, at 1/5 on the morning line, there’s nothing we can do other than to make her a short-priced, no-value, rolling exotic single.
RACE 4: Post: 2:00 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Bedeviled; 4-Student Body Left; 5-Pappou
Older maidens meet over a mile on turf in the Pick-6 opener. Bedeviled is overdue for a win and shouldn’t have any excuses today. In the money in his last four while earning solid speed figures, the son of Lookin At Lucky gets the favorable rail and should enjoy an ideal, ground-saving, second-flight trip under Desormeaux. Student Body Left tries turf for the first time and if he improves just a bit with the switch in surface he’ll have a look at a decent price. This will be his second off a layoff, and now that he’s gotten the rust off a forward move is likely. Pappou already has had 10 chances and might not be one to trust, but he ran much better than the line will show when fourth in a nine furlong affair earlier this month. The Sadler-trained son of Tapit wants to settle and produce one late move. Let’s use all three in our rolling exotics while recognizing that Bedeviled is clearly the one to beat.
RACE 5: Post 2:30 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 2-Zuzu’s Petals; 6-Warrensdollarsigns
Warrensdollarsigns, freshened since March, returns protected in a waiver claimer and looks well-spotted to pick up where she left off. When last seen, the Miyadi-trained mare had won two straight over this main track in sharp style with good figures, and this barn has superior stats with layoff runners. She should be fit and ready. Zuzu’s Petals has solid recent form with figures that fit. First or second in 11 of 21 career starts, the Koriner-trained mare should settle in behind the leaders and be ready pounce when called upon. We’ll use both in our rolling exotics while preferring Warrensdollarsigns on top.
RACE 6: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: B
Use: 2-Americana; 6-Joe’sgoldenholiday
The sixth race offers maiden juvenile fillies a chance to compete over a mile on turf, and we’re thinking Americana will especially enjoy the switch in surface and the stretch out in trip. The daughter of Tapit is drawn comfortably inside, adds blinkers, switches to Bejarano, and should be on or near the lead throughout. Joe’sgoldenholiday was well-beaten in her sprint debut but Prat stays aboard and most likely will have this daughter of Harlan’s Holiday pressing or stalking the pace from the get-go. Let’s double the race in our rolling exotics and then have an extra ticket or two with Americana on top.
RACE 7: Post 3:30 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Storm Comin Thru; 5-Overcomer; 6-Tribal Tribute
The seventh race is a main track miler for entry-level allowance horses and looks fairly competitive, thus requiring a bit of a spread in rolling exotic play. Tribal Tribute, first off the claim for Hartman (25% with a flat-bet profit with this angle), didn’t get the best of trips when fourth in a similar optional claimer at Del Mar in late August but seems capable of much better today with a clean trip. The son of Tribal Rule knows how to win races and has a good stalking style that will give him every chance to press, prompt, and then draw away. Overcomer is lightly raced with just eight career starts, four of which resulted in victories. He’s won over the Santa Anita main track in the past, and in his first try around two-turns could easily attempt gate-to-wire tactics under Desormeaux. Storm Comin Thru, first off the claimer for Becerra, doesn’t have much of a winning punch but usually lands in the frame and might be worth using as a saver or a back-up.
RACE 8: Post 4:00 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Beau Square; 3-Queen Bee to You; 5-Divine Spark
The eighth race is a wide-open maiden sprint for juvenile fillies. First-timer starter Beau Square has done some good work in the morning for O’Neill and certainly is bred to win early (Square Eddie). She may be as good as any, and in a field in which the known element doesn’t impress, a newcomer could easily win. Queen Bee to You, in the money in both of her starts vs. maiden claimers, moves into straight maiden company today and shouldn’t be out of her element. Let’s toss her in. Divine Spark has an okay work tab for Baffert and seems plenty fit. She won’t have to be a world beater to win. Let’s go three-deep and then press a bit with Beau Square on top.
RACE 9: Post 4:30 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 3-Zinvor; 7-Forest Blue; 8-Tribal Fighter
The finale is a grass grab bag down the hill with a number of possibilities. Tribal Fighter was nosed out under similar conditions last month and won’t have to improve much at all to beat this field. He can be tough on the front end but can stalk and pounce if Bejarano chooses to do so. Forest Blue likes to run second or third more than he likes to win but the Miller-trained gelding switches to Prat and very likely will produce a forward move. Zinvor always is a threat in this league and figures to be running on strongly late. Let’s go with Tribal Fighter on top and have an extra ticket or two keying the Baltas-trained gelding in the straight pool.