Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies (SA, Bel) for July 2, 2017

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.


Sunday, July 2, 2017

RACE 1: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B+

Use: 3-Conquest Smartee; 4-Placido

The Sunday opener brings together straight maidens sprinting down the hill. Placido has the route-to-spring angle that we like in addition to a positive jockey switch to Flavien Prat. His speed figures are rising, and we anticipate another forward move for this son of Shackleford. At 4-1 on the morning line, the Simon Callaghan-trained colt offers value both in the straight pool and in rolling exotic play. Conquest Smartee is worth using as a saver or a backup; the Smart Strike colt has two good efforts under his belt over this course and distance since arriving from Canada and today gets a break in the weights with the switch to red hot bug boy Evin Roman.


​​​RACE 2: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: X

Use: 3-Diamondsandpearls; 5-Mondaymorningblues

Maiden juvenile fillies sprint five furlongs in the second race, with Diamondsandpearls making her debut for trainer Bob Baffert after bringing $1.7 million at auction in Ocala in March, where she smoked a furlong in 9 4/5 seconds, the fastest move in the entire sale. Locally, she’s been just impressive as well (see workout) but at 6/5 on the morning line won’t offer much in the way of wagering value. Mondaymorningblues (see Black Book) caught our eye in her debut while performing better than the line will show, and with a race under her belt seems likely to produce a significant forward move. Both should be used in rolling exotic play with Diamondsandpearls clearly the one to beat.


​​RACE 3: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 3-She Began Again; 5-Specter

Specter debuts at the bottom and clearly is no world beater but she can run at least little bit (see workout) and could score at first asking for the always-potent Mandella/Prat combo. She doesn’t appear to be quick sort but at this seven furlong trip the daughter of Ghostzapper should be quite comfortable. She Began Again closed a bit of ground in her debut over five furlongs in a similar maiden claimer last month and should appreciate today’s quarter mile trip. On paper she’s the best of the known element. Let’s use both in our rolling exotics while preferring Specter on top.


​​​​RACE 4: Post: 2:30 PT. Grade: X

Use: 1-Painting Corners; 7-Aura Rose

The fourth race kicks off the Pick-6; it’s a starter optional claimer for fillies and mares down the hill with recent winner Painted Corners looking well-spotted for a repeat score. She earned a powerful speed figure for the level when crushing soft foes gate to wire with plenty left and not much more will be needed today from the daughter of Pleasant Strike in Peter Miller’s barn. She projects to lead to gate to wire once again. Aura Rose seems like a logical exacta partner with ‘Corners; the Richard Baltas-trained filly has rising numbers and two good efforts over this course and distance. Both should be used in rolling exotic play with Painting Corners clearly the top pick.


RACE 5: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: B+

Use: 2-Gorgeous Ginny; 5-Surrender Now

Six fillies compete over five and one-half furlongs in the Landaluce Stakes, the first added money event for juveniles in Southern California. Surrender Now won at first asking in highly-impressive style, and though she didn’t run particular fast she accomplished her victory with a ton left in the tank. We’re expecting her to produce a forward move and be very tough to deny. Gorgeous Ginny also was a highly-impressive debut winner in a race that has proven to be quite productive. She’s the 8/5 morning line favorite and probably deserves to be. Both should be used in rolling exotic play; we’ll have a few extra tickets keying Surrender Now on top.


​​​​RACE 6: Post 3:30 PT. Grade: B

Use: 2-Meadowsweet; 3-Blame It On Alphie; 5-Just a Little Hope

The sixth race is a competitive entry-level allowance turf miler restricted to 3-year-old fillies and contains a number of nice prospects. Meadowsweet fleet home to win her debut down the hill in late May and seems likely to improve with distance and experience. She loses Mike Smith (who opts for Blame It On Alphie) so that will help the price a bit. ‘Alphie finished fourth under similar conditions in mid-May in her first outing since last September and seems likely to be fitter and tougher today for the Richard Mandella barn. The daughter of Blame probably wants patient handling today (she was on the lead last time) and likely will get that kind of ride from Smith. Just a Little Hope was impressive breaking her maiden sprinting on the main track in late May and earned a very smart speed figure in the process. Her pedigree suggests the added distance should be with in her range, though it’s possible she’s nothing more than a very good late-running sprinter. We’ll find out today. All three should be included in rolling exotic play; at 5-1 on the morning line we’ll give Meadowsweet a very slight edge on top.


RACE 7: Post 4:00 PT.  Grade: B+

Use: 1-Prime Issue; 7-Kristi’s Copilot

Prime Issue looks like the one to beat in the seventh race, a $40,000 claimer for older horses at six and one-half furlongs. The Miller-trained gelding had the misfortune of drawing the rail, but he’s a route-to-sprint play that has finished first or second in eight of 15 career starts over the Santa Anita main track and earned a number two races back that should be good enough to beat this field. He also gets a break in the weights with the switch to bug boy Roman. Kristi’s Copilot is worth consideration on a back-up ticket; the Lucky Pulpit gelding turns back from a series of two-turn efforts and may be effecting as a stalking or late-running sprinter. He has a few back numbers that make him dangerous.


​​​​​RACE 8: Post 4:30 PT.  Grade: B-

Use: 5-Ajac; 7-Arlington House; 8-London Legacy

The eighth race is a difficult $8,000 claiming extended sprint that requires a spread in rolling exotic play. London Legacy seems as good as any; he’s a first-off-the-claim for Robertino Diodoro (26% with a flat-bet profit with this angle) and earned a pretty decent number when beating $6,250 foes in mid-May. Like most of these, the veteran gelding has his issues but his stalking style gives reason to believe he’ll enjoy this seven furlong trip. Arlington House drops to his lowest level ever and should be competitive; this will be his second start off a layoff and a forward move is likely for a gelding who has two prior wins over the Santa Anita main track. You should use him at 12-1 on the morning line. Ajac is another class dropper worth a look; both of his career wins have come over the Santa Anita main track and the Benchmark gelding has enough early speed to be a strong pace presence most of the way.


RACE 9: Post 5:00 PT.  Grade: B+

Use: 1-Abbey Vale; 9-Blackjackat

With late scratching of top pick Arms Runner, the finale takes on a different look.  Abbey Vale has rising numbers and is well-placed for another huge effort while seeking his third straight score.  He should enjoy an ideal ground-saving trip from his rail draw and have every chance to pounce on the leaders from his projected second-flight position.  Blackjackcat exits on hot turf sprint and stretches out again while dropping from graded stakes company to a conditioned allowance affair.  He’s won over this course in the past and should be a strong pace presence every step of the way.  We’ll prefer Abbey Vale slightly on top but include both in our rolling exotics.




Sunday, July 2, 2017


​RACE 1: Post 1:30 ET. Grade: B

Use: 4-Doinwhatshelikes; 5-Just Got Out


​​RACE 2: Post 2:04 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 2-Defrock; 6-Resonate; 8-Complicit


RACE 3: Post 2:37 ET. Grade: C+

Use: 1-Causeway Cutie; 3-Megan’s Muse; 4-Little Miss Julia

​​​RACE 4: Post: 3:09 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 1-Do Share; 2-Dowse’s Beach; 3-Big Rock

​RACE 5: Post 3:41 ET. Grade: B

Use: 2-Disco Outlaw; 5-Nine Route

​​​RACE 6: Post 4:14 ET. Grade: B+

Single: 6-Bustin It

​​RACE 7: Post 4:46 ET.  Grade: B

Use: 1-Il Segreto; 5-Neoclassic


​​​RACE 8: Post 5:18 ET.  Grade: B+

Single: 3-Rocketry

RACE 9: Post 5:50 ET.  Grade: B

Use: 3-Diversify; 4-Inside Straight


RACE 10: Post 6:22 ET.  Grade: B+

Single: 2-Rarest Quality




Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies (SA, Bel) for July 2, 2017

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