The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players. The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play. Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.
The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Top selection indicated in bold-face.
A=Highest degree of confidence.
C=Least preferred, or pass.
X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.
Saturday, June 24, 2017
RACE 1: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: C
Use: 1-Blondy’s Reward; 8-Ocean Dream; 9-Award It
The Saturday opener is a restricted (nw-2) $25,000 claimer over a mile on turf for fillies and mares. It’s a chaotic affair requiring a spread. Award It has numbers that are good enough to beat this field and has a prior win over the course, but this sharp drop in class into a claimer clearly indicates that she is being culled from the stable. The daughter of Tapit reportedly cannot reproduce, so you’re claiming a racehorse, not a broodmare, if you reach in and take her. Ocean Dream just broke her maiden over this course and distance in a $50,000 claimer and is realistically spotted based on her recent speed figures. She’ll be running on late. Blondy’s Reward lands the rail, adds blinkers for the first time, and could manufacture enough of a forward move to pose a threat. This race might be best left alone, but we’ll try to get by using all three in our rolling exotics.
RACE 2: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 3-So I Sang; 4-Point Streak; 7-Candy Swirls
Maiden fillies and mares sprint six and one-half furlongs in the second race. Point Streak displayed a bit of promise in her only outing as a two-year-old, though her third place performance at Del Mar last summer came around two turns and turf. Her recent a.m. activity is solid (see workout) and trainer Bob Baffert hits with 29% with layoff runners so we’ll assume she’s fit and ready. Candy Swirls finished a willing third in an expensive maiden claimer in her debut last month and today is protected in straight maiden company in a sign of confidence by trainer Bill Spawr. Drawn comfortably outside, the daughter of Twirling Candy should enjoy today’s extra furlong and figures to be running on late. So I Sang has shown some talent in the morning for Jerry Hollendorfer (see workout), gets hot riding bug boy Evin Roman, and won’t have to be a world beater to act with this moderate group. These are the three we’ll be using in rolling exotic play while slightly preferring Point Streak on top.
RACE 3: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: B
Use: 2-Flower Heart Dee; 9-Red Livy
Maiden claiming fillies and mares sprint down the Hillside Course in the third race, a modest affair with little in the way of contention. Red Livy shows up for a tag for the first time and against this group the Irish-bred filly should improve a bunch. She has more than enough early zip to clear this field and if she can slow down just a bit early she’ll likely roll all the way to the wire. Flower Heart Deer, a solid runner-up in a similar turf sprint earlier this month, won’t have to improve much at all to earn her diploma. Red Livy gets top billing but both should be included in rolling exotic play.
RACE 4: Post: 2:30 PT. Grade: X
Use: 2-Battle of Midway; 5-Arms Runner
The Affirmed Stakes, a middle distance main track affair for 3-year-olds, drew a field of five and is basically unplayable other than to include the two logical contenders in rolling exotic play. Battle of Midway, third in the Kentucky Derby in his last start, has trained superbly since (see workout) and is clearly the one to beat. The son of Smart Strike has the potential to be among the best in the sophomore division during the second half of the year. Arms Runner is unbeaten in a pair of downhill turf sprints, both victories accomplished in highly-impressive fashion with stakes-quality speed figures. This will be his first try around two turns and on dirt, but there’s no reason he shouldn’t be just as effective under these conditions. Battle of Midway in the deserving short priced favorite but Arms Runner could make a serious run for it.
RACE 5: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: X
Single: 4-Spin Me a Kiss
Spin Me a Kiss is listed as the 8/5 favorite in the fifth race, a turf sprint for first-level allowance state-bred fillies and mares, but seems likely to leave at closer to even money. A blowout winner over this course and distance when breaking her maiden with a huge figure last month, the daughter of Hard Spun has maintained her edge in the morning for trainer Phil D’Amato and likely has further improvement in her. She looks like a logical no-value rolling exotic single.
RACE 6: Post 3:30 PT. Grade: X
Collected has been untouchable in a pair of wins this year and continues to act like one of the best main track milers in the nation. He’s fast on figures, continues to sizzle in the morning (see workout), and is versatile enough to win on the lead or from a second flight, stalking position. At 4/5 on the morning line the son of City Zip is unplayable, but we can use him as a rolling exotic and move on.
RACE 7: Post 4:00 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Have Some Pride; 7-Cal Cal Li Gowchis; 10-My Boy Rudy
The seventh race is a weak maiden claiming five furlong sprint. Have Some Pride drilled with the far more talented Dangerfield last week (see workout) and was able to hold his own, so he should be highly competitive in his racing debut. He’ll have to break cleanly from the rail to avoid trouble but if he does the son of To Honor and Serve should have enough early speed to gain a favorable ground-saving, pace-pressing position. Cal Cal Li Gowchis has displayed some zip but very little stick in his four race career but his kind of speed should be effective against bottom-rung competition at this abbreviated trip. Maybe he’ll benefit from the switch in barns. My Boy Rudy broke slowly, raced wide, and was no threat vs. much stronger maiden $50,000 foes in his debut last month but even in defeat earn a speed figure that puts him right there. The Mark Glatt barn has superior stats with second-timers. We’ll include all three in our rolling exotics while preferring the fresh face Have Some Pride on top.
RACE 8: Post 4:30 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 3-Street Moxie; 4-Unapologetic; 12-Rye Patch
The eighth race is a grass grab gag that promises to have a fast pace and a potentially chaotic result. The three listed above should run well, but best advice is to use as many as you can afford to. Street Moxie, away since October but a perfect one-for-one over the Santa Anita lawn, gets a break in the weights with the presence of bug boy Roman in the saddle and hails from the Richard Baltas barn (solid stats with layoff runners). From where he’s drawn the son of Street Sense should be prominent throughout and have every chance. Unapologetic has a closing style that should be effective in a field with plenty of early speed and with good racing luck will be heard from in the final furlong. Rye Patch seems to change barns every other week and now finds himself in the John Sadler stable. Beaten at even money without an apparent excuse in his most recent start, the hard-knocking gelding gets the absolute worst of the draw and is catching a field with several front-running types, so we question if he’ll get the kind of soft, pace-pressing trip he seems to prefer. The positives are the barn’s strong stats with first-off-claim plays and a sharp recent workout that should have him on edge.
RACE 9: Post 5:00 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Moonlite Madness; 9-Princess Dorian
Older maiden fillies and mares sprint six furlongs in the ninth race, with first-timer Moonlite Madness looking dangerous despite her rail post. The daughter of Papa Clem has done some good morning work at Los Alamitos, including a pair of recent bullet drills, and looks fit and ready for a major effort for a barn whose newcomers often perform better than their clockings. Princess Dorian is clearly the best of the known element, having finished second in both of her career starts, with okay speed figures. She’ll have clear sailing from her outside draw. We’ll use both in our rolling exotics and then have extra tickets keying Moonlite Madness on top.
RACE 10: Post 5:00 PT. Grade: B
Use: 4-Chief Hosa; 5-Allaboutmike; 6-Special Story
The finale is a starter’s allowance downhill turf sprint with several possibilities. Special Story makes his first start on grass and his pedigree suggests he’ll like it. The Ron Ellis-trained gelding has been away since October but the work tab is promising, he has back numbers that fit, has proven he can fire fresh, and with racing luck could produce a winning late bid. There may be some real value here at 10-1 on the morning line. Chief Hosa boasts the dangerous blinkers off angle and may be the speed of the speed. He’s certainly worth including at 6-1 on the morning line. Allaboutmike just graduated vs. maiden $75,000 foes under these conditions for trainer Peter Miller and charts to be competitive right back. A bullet blowout at San Luis Rey Downs four days ago should have him on edge. Let’s use all three in our rolling exotics while preferring the long shot Special Story on top.
Saturday, June 24, 2017
RACE 1: Post 1:30 ET. Grade: C
Use: 1-Kissin Cassie; 2-Shesmyheartandsoul; 6-Summer of Joy
RACE 2: Post 2:04 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 5-Giant Ending; 6-Desert Affair; 8-Diamonds N Stones
RACE 3: Post 2:37 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Puca; 7-Jc’s Shooting Star
RACE 4: Post: 3:09 ET. Grade: B
Use: 2-Basic Hero; 6-Won’t Burn
RACE 5: Post 3:41 ET. Grade: C
Use: Very Fashionable; 10-Frostie Anne; 11-Electrified
RACE 6: Post 4:14 ET. Grade: B
Use: 1-Javelin; 7-Zap Zap Zap
RACE 7: Post 4:46 ET. Grade: X
Single: 3-Broken Engagement
RACE 8: Post 5:18 ET. Grade: C
Use: 1-Rum Go; 3-Bellavais
RACE 9: Post 5:50 ET. Grade: C
Use: 3-Southside Warrior; 5-Altar Boy
RACE 10: Post 6:22 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Wondermeister; 11-Mr. Massena