The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players. The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play. Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.
The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Top selection indicated in bold-face.
A=Highest degree of confidence.
C=Least preferred, or pass.
X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.
Sunday, June 25, 2017
RACE 1: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 3-Particleaclerator; 6-Bottle Service
The Sunday opener quickly boils down to two main contenders who will receive the bulk of the play. Particleaccelerator was more than four clear of the rest when finishing a strong second over this course and distance in his most recent outing last month and a similar effort today will make him hard to beat. The Cyclotron gelding should settle into a good stalking position behind likely pacesetter Lovely Anzi and then go on with it when ready. Bottle Service earned a career top number when a solid runner-up in a nine-furlong maiden claimer last month but this straight maiden state-bred affair isn’t much tougher and the Mike Machowsky-trained gelding should draft into a soft pace-stalking position and have every chance. Both should be included in rolling exotic play with preference on top to Particleaccelerator.
RACE 2: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: X
Avicii is listed at even money on the morning line in the second race and on pure form looks it. The Peter Miller-trained mare has finished in the money in all six starts this year (with three wins) and is protected today after defeating a similar field in an extended sprint last month. Today’s extra half-furlong shouldn’t be an issue and her rail draw is only a mild inconvenience. Let’s put the veteran daughter of City Zip on top as a rolling exotic single, but since she’s even money on the morning line (and likely to go lower) we’ll otherwise pass the race.
RACE 3: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: B+
Single: 2-One I’m Running To
One I’m Running To just beat an older restricted $12,500 claiming field with a career top speed figure and today moves up the ladder to try 3-year-olds only in his first for new trainer Anthony Saavedra. The son of Ministers Wildcat should be too quick for these and we’re expecting the sophomore gelding to extend his winning streak to three. Anything close to his morning line of 3-1 should offer good value in both the straight pool and rolling exotic play.
RACE 4: Post: 2:30 PT. Grade: X
Single: 5-Kristie’s Heart
Kristie’s Heart is the 6/5 morning line favorite in the fourth race, an abbreviated sprint for $12,500 claiming fillies and mares. Away since mid-January, the Jeff Bonde-trained filly is dropping to her lowest level ever despite having won three straight, so you know she has her problems. However, her recent work tab shows a solid series of good drills, so if she has at least one good one left she’ll handle this assignment. You can make her a rolling exotic single or simply pass the race.
RACE 5: Post 3:03 PT. Grade: B
Use: 1-Cannonball Comin; 7-Michael Mundo
The fifth race is a maiden claiming sprint for juveniles. We’ll try to survive and advance using just two. Cannonball Comin, a distant second in a strong race in his debut earlier this month, returns at the same level for new trainer Gary Stute (strong stats with first-off-the-claim plays) and switches to good bug boy Roman while adding blinkers. If he leaves cleanly from the rail, the son of Congrats may be quick enough to make the lead and keep on going. Michael Mundo is bred to be quick (Forestry) and has done enough in the morning to indicate he has a bit of ability, so we’ll use him as well.
RACE 6: Post 3:34 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Belvoir Bay; 3-Roo’s Valentine; 5-Watch This Cat
Third-level allowance fillies and mares sprint down the Hillside Course in the sixth race. Watch the Cat was burned up on a blistering pace when unplaced in the Monrovia ‘Cap last month but she lands the cozy outside post today and likely will employ stalking tactics. A two-time winner over the course, the Richard Baltas-trained mare should appreciate the softer company and has back speed figures that are good enough to handle this assignment. Belvoir Bay, away since last fall but training well enough to be fit and ready, may be the quickest in the field and could take her rivals a very long way if not policed during the early stages. Roo’s Valentine has the route-to-sprint angle that we like and a sharp win down the hill three runs back. Martin Pedroza stays aboard, knows here well, and should have her in the firing line every step of the way.
RACE 7: Post 4:06 PT. Grade: B
Use: 1-Serengeti; 3-Bahamian; 5-Honeymoonz Over
Maiden juveniles meet over five furlongs in the seventh race. Bahamian has shown some run in the morning (see workout) for trainer Simon Callaghan after bringing $160,000 at the OBS April sale, where he smoked a furlong in 10 seconds flat. Serengeti has the benefit of a prior run, having finished a solid runner-up to Runaway Ghost in a promising effort 15 days ago. He switches to Mike Smith and adds blinkers. Honeymoonz Over also displayed good ability in his debut; the son of Congrats finished a strong second to the highly-regarded Run Away while more than seven clear of the rest last month and has every right to improve with experience. Let’s put the best price on top – Bahamian is 8/1 on the morning line – but include all three in our rolling exotics.
RACE 8: Post 4:38 PT. Grade: B
Use: 5-Excavation; 7-Quality Line
Excavation seems to be improving with each start and with another forward move should handle this first-level allowance main track mile event. Tyler Baze likely will have him in a pace pressing position throughout. Quality Line, first or second in each of his last four starts, figures in the fray once again, though he may very well be more effective sprinting than routing. Let’s use both in our rolling exotics while preferring Excavation on top.
RACE 9: Post 5:10 PT. Grade: B
Use: 4-Street Surrender; 5-Nickname
The Southern Truce Stakes is carded as the ninth race, with Street Surrender and Nickname the two main contenders. Street Surrender, a thoroughly genuine and consistent race mare, earned her usual strong speed figure when second in the Santa Lucia Stakes over this track and distance earlier this month and a similar performance today should suffice. Nickname ran very well in two sprint stakes on turf but may be better on dirt, and the return to the main track while switching to Mike Smith makes her the likely choice and one to beat. Let’s give Street Surrender a very slight nod on top but include both in our rolling exotics.
RACE 10: Post 5:42 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Accountability; 3-Alsatian; 9-Dr. Troutman
The finale is a state-bred allowance turf affair bringing together the second, third, and fourth place finishers in the recent Snow Chief Stakes, though this time they’ll shorten up a furlong to a flat mile. Alsatian is progressing with experience and ran very well to be second in the Snow Chief. He’ll race with blinkers today, so it will be interesting to see if he lays a little closer to the pace today. Accountability wound up fourth, beaten less than three lengths, in the Snow Chief, and should appreciate this shorter journey. He has speed figures that are moving in the right direction and will enjoy a ground-saving trip from the rail. Dr. Troutman, a game third in the Snow Chief after striking the front in mid-stretch (and perhaps moving too soon while doing so), must overcome the outside draw but he’s been successful over this course and distance in the past and is reunited with “win rider” Martin Pedroza.
Sunday, June 25, 2017
RACE 1: Post 1:30 ET. Grade: X
Single: 6-Play Big
RACE 2: Post 2:04 ET. Grade: X
Single: 2-Old Upstart
RACE 3: Post 2:37 ET. Grade: X
Single: 3-Alright Alright
RACE 4: Post: 3:09 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Aktabantay; 2-Anytime Anyplace; 4-Vici
RACE 5: Post 3:41 ET. Grade: B+
Single: 7-Lucky Lotto
RACE 6: Post 4:09 ET. Grade: X
Single: 1-Madam Aamoura
RACE 7: Post 4:41 ET. Grade: B
Use: 1-Dreamy Margarita; 3-Paz the Bourbon; 4-Lady Joan
RACE 8: Post 5:18 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 3-Mills; 6-Indebted; 9-Souperfast
RACE 9: Post 5:50 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Crawdaddy; 2-Heldatgunpoint; 4-T Loves a Fight
RACE 10: Post 6:22 ET. Grade: C
Use: 1-Thin Dress; 2-Scarlett Jo Hansen; 6-Weekend Hottie