Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies (SA, GP) for Feb. 12, 2017

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.


Sunday, February 12, 2017

RACE 1: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 4-Tiz a Billy; 10-Incensed; 11-Unusual Fleet

As this is written, the opener remains on turf, so we’ll handicap it as such. This downhill slalom affair looks wide open; we’ll use three but feel free to spread deeper if you can afford to. Tiz a Billy shows two excellent races over this course and distance and should be on or near the lead throughout in his second start off a layoff for a barn that has good stats with this angle. We’ll give him a very slight edge on top. Incensed is a just-off-the-plane Eastern invader now in the Peter Miller barn with figures from Florida that make him a strong fit at this level. He looks extremely live under Flavien Prat. Unusual Fleet was sharp beating claimers under these conditions during the fall meeting and returns protected for trainer Richard Baltas (strong stats with comebackers).

​​RACE 2: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B-

Single: 3-Latina Mo

Latina Mo doesn’t have much to beat in this bottom-rung maiden claimer for older fillies and mares and rather than spread the race we’ll simply take a stand and single the 11-race maiden. She has the route-to-spring angle we like, a bullet blowout since raced and should draft into an ideal pace-stalking position. It’s either her or anybody and this is not the kind of race we’d prefer to get heavily involved in.


​​RACE 3: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 2-Magical Mystery; 3-Wise Curlin; 5-Magic Miracle

This main track mile event for older maidens came up fairly competitive requiring a spread in rolling exotic play. Magic Miracle had a tune-up at Los Alamitos in his debut in mid-December and figures to improve with experience and distance. The son of Twirling Candy exits a productive race and despite finishing a distant third earned a pretty good speed figure. He may have a bit more upside than the others, so we’ll put him on top. Magical Mystery, await since last summer but working well enough to be fit and ready for new trainer Doug O’Neill, will race without blinkers for the first time and may have found his friends today. He’s a fit on numbers and could easily be a better type this time around. Wise Curlin has rising speed figures, exits a tough race for the level, and will be right there with even just a mild forward move. In a race without a whole lot of early speed, he should be on or near the lead throughout.

​​​RACE 4: Post: 2:00 PT. Grade: B+

Single: 2-Aquamarine

Aquamarine won his debut like as good thing and the colt he defeated came back to graduate cleverly yesterday, franking the form in the process. The son of Gemologist continues to impress in the morning for trainer Bob Baffert and has the perfect stalking style for this extended sprint trip. At 3-1 on the morning line he’s a straight play and rolling exotic single.

RACE 5: Post 2:30 PT. Grade: B

Use: 1-Hot in the City; 2-Princess Karen; 6-Miss Sugars

The fifth race is a very competitive edition of the Sweet Life Stakes for 3-year-old fillies sprinting down the hillside course. We’ll handicap the race under the assumption that it will remain on the lawn. Miss Sugars won the Blue Norther Stakes over a mile on grass earlier this meeting and shouldn’t be inconvenienced by the turn back in trip. The Jeff Mullins-trained import continues to impress in the a.m. and looks capable of producing the last run. Hot in the City won at first asking at Del Mar in early December like a nice filly and will get tested for class today, especially from the rail. She sports a healthy work tab at Los Alamitos for trainer Terry Knight and picks up Prat. Princess Karen was no match for Unique Bella – who is? – but tackles easier today and fits on figures based on her sharp debut maiden score two runs back. She’ll be a factor if she can transfer her dirt form to turf.

​​​RACE 6: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: B+

Use: 3-Selcourt; 6-Lady Bellamy

The sixth race is a hot maiden sprint for sophomore fillies with two very good prospects. Selcourt has been quite impressive in the morning for trainer John Sadler and looks cranked up for a major effort first crack out of the box. She worked sans company in 59 seconds out of the gate recently and did it strictly one here own. Lady Bellamy also has been impressing the clockers leading up to her first lifetime start and should take plenty of action on the tote. While we prefer Selcourt on top, ‘Bellamy’s 6-1 morning line makes her very attractive as well and a “must use in rolling exotic play.


​​RACE 7: Post 3:30 PT.  Grade: C+

Use: 6-No Spin Zone; 7-Aura Rose

Maiden $30,000 claiming 3-year-old fillies sprint six and one-half furlongs in the seventh race. No Spin Zone drops to the bottom, fits on numbers and is a contender by default. Though she’s never taken a drop of money in four prior starts, she’s listed at 5/2 on the morning, a stark commentary on the opposition. Aura Rose deserves the edge on top but she’s hardly a bargain herself at 2-1 on the morning line. The Eddie Truman-trained daughter of Uncle Mo has been chasing tougher without much luck; however, her speed figures are steadily rising and that coupled with the drop to her lowest level ever could easily produce a victory. Both should be used in rolling exotic play in a race that we’ll otherwise pass.

​​​​RACE 8: Post 4:00 PT.  Grade:  C+

Use: 5-Summer Lady; 11-Flaming Lane

The eighth race is a messy turf miler for $25,000 claiming fillies and mares. We’ll try to get by using just two, but not with much conviction. Flamingo Lane must leave from the extreme outside post but she’s a first-off-the-claim for Baltas (superior 27% with a flat-bet profit with this angle) and seems likely to produce a forward move. This drop from $40,000 in her first start since October looks problematic; we’ll just have to have to trust the trainer. Summer Lady has won over this course in the past, shows up in a moderate claimer after failing in a series of first-level allowance events for state-bred foes and has speed figures that fit. Best advice is to use as many as you can afford to.


​​RACE 9: Post 4:30 PT.  Grade: C+

Use: 2-Moonie; 4-Goliath’s Girl

The finale is an $8,000 claiming sprint at five and one-half furlongs for fillies and mares. Goliath’s Girl won over a wet track here two runs back and picks up the promising 10 lb. bug boy Roman. She knows how to win and has excellent record over the Santa Anita dirt surface. Moonie also has won over the Santa Anita main track in the past and has recent numbers that fit, so we’ll toss her in as well.   Tread lightly here.



Sunday, February 12, 2017


​RACE 1: Post 12:00 ET. Grade: B

Use: 5-Stone Heart; 7-Fact Check


​​RACE 2: Post 12:30 ET. Grade: B+

Single: 5-Harryhee

RACE 3: Post 1:00 ET. Grade: B

Single: 7-Poda


​​​RACE 4: Post: 1:30 ET. Grade: X

Single: 3-Malagacy


​RACE 5: Post 2:00 ET. Grade: B

Use: 2-Alfeet Tizzy; 4-Ascertain

​​​RACE 6: Post 2:30 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 1-Japonski; 3-Slowhand

​​RACE 7: Post 3:01 ET.  Grade: C+

Use: 4-Full Battle; 9-Yes Darlin; 10-Taken to Church


​​​RACE 8: Post 3:32 ET.  Grade: B-

Use: 1-Starship Thor; 5-Zoot Suit; 7-End Play

RACE 9: Post 4:03 ET.  Grade: C+

Use: 7-Starship Jubilee; 8-Debbie’s Tude

RACE 10: Post: 4:34 ET.  Grade: B-

Use: 1-Somethingelse; 6-Sweet Ella; 7-Llanita


RACE 11: Post: 5:05 ET.  Grade: B-

Use: 2-Hug Me Tight; 5-There Goes Bella; 8-Sweet Deal


RACE 12: Post: 5:35 ET.  Grade: B

Use: 1-Fancy Kitten; 6-Relentless Miss; 8-My Life



Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies (SA, GP) for Feb. 12, 2017

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