The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players. The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play. Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.
The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Top selection indicated in bold-face.
A=Highest degree of confidence.
C=Least preferred, or pass.
X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.
Sunday, May 14, 2017
RACE 1: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B
Use: 1-Kenjistorm; 2-Royal Albert Hall
There’s no apparent speed in today’s nine furlong turf opener so Kenjistorm should have every chance to take this second-level allowance field gate-to-wire. That last sixteenth of a mile always seems to be an issue (he’s 3-for-25 lifetime) but if he’s ever going to get nine furlongs it will be under this type of circumstances. Royal Albert Hall, not exactly a win machine himself, will be charging late; he would have been a whole lot closer in his most recent race (see Black Book review) had he not been stopped at the quarter pole. Let’s try to get by in our rolling exotic play using just these two with a very slight preference on top to Royal Albert Hall.
RACE 2: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: C
Use: 1-Picture Tube; 3-Monterey Shale
The second race is a woefully weak bottom-rung maiden claimer that may be best left alone. Rolling exotic players should consider Picture Tube and Monterey Shale and anybody else that catches their eye. Picture Tube is a 13-race maiden but has hit the board in his last pair and really won’t have to improve much at all to graduate today. Monterey Shale earned a career top speed figure when second in a two-turn affair a couple of weeks ago and can be just as effective turning back to seven furlongs. However, he’s been beaten at 2/5 and 6/5 in his last pair and clearly isn’t one to trust.
RACE 3: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 5-My Party Girl; 6-Tiz the Light
The third race, for maiden special weight fillies and mares at six furlongs, drew just six runners, including the promising first-timer Tiz the Light. Finally making it to the post at age four, she has shown plenty of ability in the morning (see workout) for trainer Ron Ellis, who has excellent stats with debut runners. Drawn comfortably outside, the daughter of Tiznow will have every chance either on the front end or from a pace-stalking position. My Party Girl has the benefit of a prior run and exits a highly-rated affair, so she’s the likely choice and one to beat. Both should be included in rolling exotic play but we’ll have a few extra tickets keying Tiz the Light on top.
RACE 4: Post: 2:30 PT. Grade: B
Use: 4-Madam Dancealot; 5-Kenda
The Pick-6 begins with the fourth race, a no-restriction turf allowance sprint for 3-year-old fillies. Madam Dancealot has faced stakes competition in each of her three North American starts and faces a far less difficult task today while turning back in trip. These are her friends, and at 8/5 on the morning line she’s clearly the one to beat. A sharp recent breeze (see workout) is another plus. Kenda just broke her maiden over this course and distance in good style and rates a look right back. Her numbers are gradually rising and with another forward move today the daughter of Bodemeister will be the one to fear most.
RACE 5: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 5-Ankeny Hill; 6-Moments Notiz
The fifth race is an abbreviated sprint for bottom-rung ($6,250) claimers. Ankeny Hill is dropping off a win and clearly has issues, but if he has one good one left the Robertino Diodoro-trained veteran will score again. Moments Notiz just won at this level after finishing second to ‘Hill in his previous outing. These two figure to battle it out again in a race that doesn’t offer much in the way of wagering value.
RACE 6: Post 3:30 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 1-Scatterling; 3-Yaffe; 5-Mo’vette
Restricted (nw-2) 25,000 claiming fillies and mares meet over a middle distance on turf in the sixth race, a wide-open affair requiring a spread in rolling exotic play. We’ll try to survive and advance going three-deep. Yaffe returns to the selling ranks and this Jeff Mullins-trained mare may wake up after chasing much tougher in all of her recent outings. She has better-than-par numbers for this level and should draft into a cozy pace-stalking position. There may be a bit of value here at 9/2 on the morning line. Mo’vette shows up in a claimer for the first time and is another that should greatly appreciate the softer competition. She gets a break in the weights with the switch to bug boy Solis and should be moving well in the final furlong. Scatterling has yet to get close in four outings since being imported from Ireland but is yet another class dropper seeking her proper level. Look for her to be forwardly placed from her good inside draw.
RACE 7: Post 4:00 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 4-Selcourt; 6-Faypien
The featured seventh race is the seven furlong Angel’s Flight Stakes for sophomore fillies. Selcourt ran a winning race in defeat when forced into hot fractions and then weakening late in the Santa Paula Stakes, winding up second behind the talented Union Strike. She had a very nice breeze since that race (see workout), is facing less heat today, and looks capable of making amends. Faypien was visually quite pleasing in her maiden win while earning a speed figure that makes her very competitive right back despite the raise into stakes competition. She’s drawn perfectly outside and has the proper style for this distance. A strong recent team drill (see workout) indicates she’s ready to move forward. We’ll prefer Selcourt on top but use both in our rolling exotics.
RACE 8: Post 4:00 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Sudden Sam; 4-Hay Dude; 11-Success Rate
The eighth race is another difficult slalom affair, this one for $25,000 claimers. Hay Dude, away since October but waiver protected by trainer Peter Miller, has trained reasonably well (see workout) for his comeback and seems capable of firing a big shot fresh. He’s proven over the course and attracts Flavien Prat for a stable that has superior stats with layoff runners. Sudden Sam earned a career top speed figure when winning his only prior start over this course and could easily regain that form today for trainer Steve Miyadi. He’s reunited with Tyler Baze, who has won on him in the past, and is a “must use” at 8-1 on the morning line. Success Rate won over this course and distance at this level two runs back but was beaten as the choice (a close fifth) when moved up a notch last time out. Drawn nicely outside, the Jack Carava-trained gelding should be a factor every step of the way. Let’s go with Hay Dude slightly on top in a race in which you probably should include as many as you can afford to.
RACE 9: Post 4:30 PT. Grade: C
Use: 2-Lea’s Reward; 6-Dolce Tempesta; 8-Flyin Artie
The nightcap is an inscrutable bottom-rung maiden claiming abbreviated sprint for fillies and mares. Anything goes, and nothing would surprise. Lea’s Reward may be the best of those that have raced, which isn’t really saying much; she has finished in the money in both of her career starts with rising numbers and not much improvement will be needed to beat this field. Dolce Tempesta has shown a bit of ability in the a.m. (see workout) and may be a fit in this league, while Flyin Artie has a pair of best-of-the-morning workouts in March that catch the eye and probably should be included as well.
Sunday, May 14, 2017
Due to uncertain track conditions, there will be no Belmont Park wagering strategies today.