“What You Need to Know” – Santa Anita
by Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B
Main ticket: (in order of preference): Black and Blue
Backups/savers: 4-Greenbow
Forecast: The known element doesn’t impress so let’s try a fresh face. Black and Blue hasn’t been asked to show his best stuff in the morning but the son of Candy Ride is a good mover that probably has more speed and ability than his moderate workout times might indicate. Comfortably drawn outside, the Mark Glatt-trained sophomore should be highly competitive first crack out of the box and at 5-1 on the morning line offers a reasonable gamble. Greenbow isn’t a quick type and was climbing early in his dirt debut at Del Mar last month. The son of Runhappy leveled out and made a decent mid race move before staying on well enough through the lane, so with that race behind him and with the switch to grass the Richard Mandella-trained colt may produce enough improvement to be a factor. Toss him in on a backup ticket, at least.
Notable Workouts:
Black and Blue (Oct. 17, Santa Anita, 4f, :48.1hg). Grade: B
About a length the best outside Star Prospect (4f, :48.2hg) in easy gate drill for M. Glatt, able to go faster if permitted. Maiden son of Candy Ride looks to have more ability than he’s been asked to show. Looks plenty fit.
View Workout Video
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RACE 2: Post: 1:32 PT Grade: B
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 4-Sailing Along
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Sailing Along arrives from Minnesota fresh off a nearly nine length romp in an optional $15,000 claiming sprint that produced a career top speed figure, one that is better than par for this $25,000 claiming level. She’s now in the Reed Saldana barn (strong stats with the first-off-the-claim angle), attracts leading rider Ramon Vasquez, and seems well-placed to earn valuable ship-and-win money in her West Coast debut for her new connections. She’s a devout late-running sprinter, so you might think that this abbreviated sprint distance is a bit sharp, but her form suggests she can handle the trip. Let’s make her a win play and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 3: Post: 2:02 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Runninwitheboyz; 5-Dear Beau
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Let’s take a swing with a 10-1 shot in this maiden $50,000 claiming turf sprint for older fillies and mares. Runninwiththeboyz switches to trainer Jeff Mullins, drops from straight maiden to maiden claiming, moves from the dirt to turf, and displayed speed in a much tougher spot last time out at Del Mar in an effort that was better than the line will show. Against this level of competition, the daughter of Liam’s May most likely will display enough early speed to be on or near the lead, so at the price she offers a nice gamble. Dear Beau returns to her claim level, and a repeat of her runner-up at this condition two runs back makes her a legitimate player. She shows the route-to-sprint angle, switches to Juan Hernandez and has back numbers that are good enough to win, so at 4-1 on the morning line, she’s a “must use” somewhere on your ticket.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:34 PT Grade: C
Main ticket (in order of preference): 8-Still On the Books; 6-Mourvedre
Backups/Savers: none
Forecast: Still on the Books stretches out for the first time and adds blinkers in her first start off the $20,000 claim for trainer Robertino Diodoro (21% with this angle), so improvement is possible in this bottom-rung main track miler that came up usually soft. He’s hit the board in two of five starts, so he’s not without at least some ability. Mourvedre made the running and held on well to be second at this level and distance at Los Alamitos last time out. His easy front-running trip might have flattered his performance, but if he can establish the pace again without pressure he should take this group a long way. These are the two we’ll be including in our rolling exotics but not with a high degree of confidence, so if you feel the need to spread deeper, go right ahead.
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RACE 5: Post: 3:08 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Lincoln City; 9-Encroachment; 8-Give Me the Lute
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Here’s a turf sprint loaded with early speed, so let’s assume the race shape will favor the closers and Lincoln City might the most dangerous of the lot. Third, beaten a head, at 22-1 in a similar grass dash at Del Mar last month, the Peter Miller-trained veteran gets an extra furlong to work with today and with Juan Hernandez staying aboard and with two prior wins over the course he could get up in time. Encroachment and Give Me the Lute are both speed types and seem likely to engage one another somewhere along the way. The former is comfortably drawn outside and might employ stalk-and-pounce tactics (he’s won with that type of trip in the past) while the latter returns from the Bay Area, drops into a seller, and has back numbers that can win.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:38 PT Grade:
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Midnight’s Girl; 6-Never Sway
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Midnight’s Girl stretches out to a mile again and her one prior two-turn attempt wasn’t bad against much tougher than she’s facing today. The Phil D’Amato-trained filly has a prior win over this main track and numbers that fit, so she seems fairly solid in this $16,000 claimer for the fillies and mares. Also worth including on your ticket is Never Sway, a class dropper trying a route of ground for the first time. As a daughter of Clubhouse Ride, the Craig Lewis-trained filly should have no trouble with a middle distance and while she’s slower on numbers than our top pick she has finished first or second in three of five outings over the Santa Anita main track and is reunited with “win rider” Juan Hernandez.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:08 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 8-Ragtime Rose; 3-Mount Mary
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Ragtime Rose tipped her hand with an excellent runner-up performance in her debut at 15-1 over this course and distance earlier this month and has every right to step forward with that bit of experience behind her. The daughter of Union Rags isn’t a quick type, but from her cozy outside draw she should be able to settle in mid-pack and then kick home when called upon. With any kind of forward move, the Jeff Mullins-trained juvenile filly will be hard to beat. Irish invader Mount Mary offers stranger danger in her U.S. debut and should be included on your ticket. A close second in a 13-runner affair at Naas in August while earning a representative 61 Timeform rating, she arrives fit and ready for trainer Simon Callaghan, picks up top turf jockey Umberto Rispoli, and sports a healthy local work tab to have her on edge.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:38 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-Houndstooth
Backups/savers: 7-Encode; 5-Saville Row
Forecast: We’ll spread this starter optional claiming sprint going three deep while slightly preferring Houndstooth on top. The Steve Miyadi-trained gelding returns to the claiming ranks (he’s entered for $50,000) after finding first level allowance foes too tough. He has numbers that fit quite well at this level, shows the blinkers-off angle that we like, and switches to top rider Ramon Vasquez, so all systems are go. Trainer Tim Yakteen has a pair in the field, but both are speed types, and we wonder if they might compromise each other during the early stages of the race. Encode earned a big figure when beating maiden $50,000 foes at Los Alamitos last month when trained by Bob Baffert, and if he runs back to that race today he’ll be dangerous. Saville Row, a fading fourth in his first start in more than a year last month at Los Alamitos, has a right to be fitter today, especially with the class drop from the first-level allowance ranks. It will be interesting to say if rating tactics will be employed today.
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RACE 9: Post: 5:08 PT Grade: X
Main ticket (in order of preference): 9-Luka Grazie
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Luka Grazie drops from straight maiden company into this modest maiden state bred turf affair and based on numbers appears to have found his friends. A closing third last time out when rallying against moderate fractions, the Peter Miller-trained gelding won’t need to improve much at all to handle this task. With the patient ride he is sure to receive from the jockey Hector Berrios, the son of Boisterous figures to be along in plenty of time, his outside draw notwithstanding. However, at 6/5 on the morning line, there’s little value to be found, so you can use him as a rolling exotic single or simply pass the race.
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